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The Screaming Moderate

It's on!

7/26/2024

2 Comments

 
The Most Happy Felon vs Kamala.

The elderly, obese former President against the vibrant, young(er) Vice President.

The fight for how the country will be governed is definitely on and it didn’t take Kamala Harris long to redefine the contest.

Harris may be Donald J. Trump’s worst nightmare.

She will take a different approach to respond to his immature, childish attacks and Mamala isn’t bashful.

This should be a most interesting race whether it’s focused on policy or histrionics.

No opponent of Trump’s has taken him on, on (almost) his level.

Harris has shown through her online posts and speeches that she is ready for battle against The Donald. But on her level, not his.

Her opening salvo was spot-on:

Talking about the positions she’s held, she said: “…I took on perpetrators of all kinds. Predators who abused women, fraudsters who ripped off consumers. Cheaters who broke the rules for their own gain. So, hear me when I say I know Donald Trump’s type.”

Sums it up pretty well.

And par for the course for the former prosecutor who showed her wits and smarts when, from her perch on the Senate Judiciary Committee, she questioned Brett Kavanaugh during his Supreme Court hearings (“Can you think of any laws that give the government the power to make decisions about the male body.” He couldn't.)

She takes complicated issues and, like a good prosecutor, whittles them down on the fly.

The Trump  “nice guy image” that they said we’d see after an assassin’s bullet just missed killing him, didn't last 10 minutes. His convention speech started on a unity theme but that was done about five minutes into it.

He’s gone nasty already, trying on immature nicknames -- “Lyin’ Kamala,” “Laughin’ Kamala,” “lunatic,” “nasty,” each time intentionally mispronouncing her name to try to diminish her.

But it won’t work with Harris.

As she said, she knows his type and obviously knows how to handle him.

As Trump tried to hesitate about debating her, she tweeted “what happened to any time any place?”

She’ll be classy about it but she won’t flinch from it either.

Harris taking over the Democratic nomination for Joe Biden (in a display of patriotism for the annals) gives Trump a different kind of opponent. One he is struggling to figure out how to handle (he’s already saying there will be debates, but he wants them on Fox).

He may not figure it out. It worked against Hillary Clinton and it was working on a weakened Biden.

Harris is anything but weak.

That doesn’t make this a runaway though early polls are showing she’s catching up, early donations are mounting up, voters Trump was peeling from Biden are returning to the Democratic ledger.

This still, though, is a deeply divided country, especially when you decide the winner based on electoral votes.

But states that were out of play for Biden are falling back into play for Harris.

And she has grown in the job. She’s not the same woman she was four years ago. She’s been in the room, been part of big decision-making and doesn’t need Big Girl pants to take on Trump because she’s plenty big enough on her own.

In the Olympics spirit, then:

Let the Games Begin!

2 Comments

Are we about to watch Trump pivot?

7/15/2024

0 Comments

 
 No one wants to see any politician assassinated. The way to defeat a politician is at the ballot box.

That’s what makes a democracy successful.

We came close this weekend. The bullet that grazed ex-President Donald Trump’s ear was a few inches shy of killing him.  

That’s not the way to solve the political division in our country. 

Assassination would only divide us more.

Both the reactions from Trump and President Biden are what we needed.  The momentary agreement on messaging - unity - likely won’t last forever, or even, possibly, four days.  

We just don’t know. 

For those who dislike Trump, he is seen as a ‘me, me, me’ personality only out for himself. If that personality perception is true, he cannot change it overnight.

Though a near-miss assassination attempt could have its effect, on voters and most particularly on Trump.

For those who think Biden is old, that fact cannot be changed. It only grows by the day.

Another truth that we face that will not change is that this election will be decided by a slice of voters in a small number of states.

Those swing voters are up for grabs. 

Here’s one theory: Trump learned in the weeks since Biden’s disastrous debate performance that he truly can gain ground by keeping his mouth shut.

Since he was wounded, he is experiencing a wave of sympathy, understandably, for his surviving the assassination attempt and having the instinct to raise his fist, mouthing ‘fight!’ In shock or not, that image shows strength versus Biden's perceived weakness/aging.

 A picture that already lives in infamy. 

Trump could continue gaining ground by going with that momentum, especially if Biden makes another significant or several less significant gaffes/showing his age, as he did in his national address last night. They probably were the typical effects of his life-long stutter problem, but they are perceived differently by many these days.

If Trump, who will ride a wave of sympathy for a bit, can maintain a pivot to a less verbose, mean-spirited guy – he may ride that wave to a win on Election Day.

How does Biden win? If Trump returns to form/character, Biden will have an opportunity. 

Calls for Biden to suspend his campaign and make way for a new generation are on pause at the moment as the assassination attempt works its way through the political thought process on both sides.

But that won’t last long. Those who thought Biden was too old before Saturday, haven’t changed their minds since Saturday.

The aging process, hopefully, lasts a long time for each of us.

But the time to nominate a candidate to oppose Trump lessens every day.

If Biden makes room for a replacement, the race to November will be on again. 


0 Comments

'Should I stay or should I go?'

7/10/2024

1 Comment

 
As President Joe Biden likes to say, “Folks, here’s the deal.”

His efforts at re-election are slumping, at best.

If you watched the national news last night, you would have thought the opposite. Congressmen who privately were saying Biden should withdraw, publicly are supporting him (he does have the delegates, after all, and it is his decision to stay or go). About a dozen Congressmen have said he should give up his race.

The powerful Congressional Black Caucus is supporting him. The Hispanic caucus leader is speaking positively about him.

The Senate is holding back its opinion, except for an outlier or two who say he should suspend his campaign.

The polls, talking heads and predictors are not good as positive. The respected Cook Political Report yesterday moved six states away from Biden and toward ex-President Donald J. Trump (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada went from Toss Up states to lean Republican. Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District moved from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.

A Cook analyst said that Biden’s post-debate slip is the biggest polling shift of the year with Trump now leading Biden 47%-44% in their new national polling average. With Trump’s numbers where they are, at the moment, among Blacks and Latino voters – there is no plausible Democratic victory scenario, Cook’s analyst said. Not that Trump will win a majority of those voters, but he’s cut into the lead Biden had.

There are also reports that Biden support is slipping in Democratic reliable New York state! Biden won New York by 23 points last time.

Biden’s people are running a great one-week campaign to keep him on the ticket. They have rounded up the Black and Hispanic caucuses and even New York Cong. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez whose public support keeps others from going against Biden.

He is starring at this week’s NATO meeting and I have little doubt he’ll perform well and no NATO leaders are going to, in Biden’s home country, speak ill about him on the record. He asked for a week and he’s having a good week.

But it’s just a week.

At some point, assuming Biden’s faults are real, he will slip again and it will be major news. And probably again.

The major news, for those who don’t want to see Trump anywhere near the Oval again, needs to be on  Trump, on his VP pick and on Project 2025, which  Trump swears he  never heard of, which is as believable as Biden not remembering if he watched a video of the debate.

Needless to say, we are in a very bad place in this country, where a convicted felon, a court-adjucated abuser of women, a pathological liar, a man who has said he is committed to revenge on his political enemies, a man reinforced by a Supreme Court who says he has vast immunity when President and in effect is above (most) laws, is favored to be elected to the presidency.

Sarah Matthews, a former Trump deputy press secretary, now an avowed anti-Trumper said on the news the other day that so many people, including Democrats, praised her for her very public stance against Trump, her bravery, etc., etc. But now, she said, Democratic leaders are behaving the same toward Biden – supporting him in the face of very serious issues - and not having the backbone to speak their true feelings.

She’s right. She’s also right in her conclusion that she would still vote for Biden if he were in a coma to keep Trump away for the powers of the presidency.

But there still is time for Biden to reconsider, and suspend his campaign.

The Democrats then can go the James Carville recommended way of a shortened primary with town halls of those who want the nomination to not just show the choices but to gin up voters about younger candidates and this country again.

Or, you can go the “go with the Vice President route” and nominate Kamala Harris who has grown in office, is a former prosecutor who I’d love to see debate Trump (who I believe would not debate her) and who appeals to the very voters Biden is leaking – Blacks, Hispanics, women.

There is still time to keep Trump out of office.

But the window is closing.


1 Comment

With fear for our democracy, I dissent too

7/2/2024

2 Comments

 
It may make sense to some people that the Founders, who wrote our Constitution before AR-15’s existed and before anyone thought a former President was a messiah, put our President above the law – but it makes no sense to me.

I know, I know “yeah, that’s not true.” But, well,  common sense!

Besides, let’s just say ex-President Trump is elected again. Here is a chap who thought he could order assassinations of his enemies, who wanted a military parade in his honor, who admires and snuggles up to dictators and murderers – and that was before anyone thought the Supreme Court would open the door for that kind of behavior.

But open it, the court did.

Unfortunately, now the country is facing an election where one candidate is believed too old and lacking the capacity to be president and the other candidate is Donald Trump, who hasn’t met a Constitutional requirement he didn’t think he could ignore.

I mean, as soon as the court issued this opinion, his lawyers were asking the New York justice who oversaw the trial where he was convicted of 34 felonies – by a jury of his (whether he agrees or not) peers - to throw out the verdict. Please tell me how, when he was not even President, that makes sense? And now, though the District Attorney who prosecuted him still thinks he is a legitimate conviction, he’s agreed to delay sentencing while the Constitutional issue is looked at.

And I think (hope) that even this Supreme Court would agree if he made the payoff when he was President, he is not immune.

This is a man who, before the ruling, said he’d be a dictator only on day one (as if the President has that power) … now, it appears he may have that power?

(By the way, has anyone had as great a week in his life as Donald Trump is having?)

My friends who support Trump, I’m sorry. This ruling is crazy. No one is above the law in this country – but now maybe someone is?? How can that happen?

Put aside that it most directly will affect Trump if he’s elected. But all future presidents? Oh, by the way, it means it affects the current President right now. Let's see how Joe Biden handles his new powers.

It looks like we truly are facing a binary choice in November. And, neither is my favorite either.

But given someone who will (still) follow the Constitution and not think he’s above the law and someone itching to have the backing of the Supreme Court so he can be a dictator for more than Day One, I know who I’m voting for.

I have a friend when saw me comment after the court’s ruling, “does this mean Biden can call Justice and have Trump indicted,” responded, “he’s already done that.”

People, wake up. If you have an evidence that Biden ordered any one to indict Donald J. Trump, please show it to me – hell, I’ll vote for Trump if that’s the case! Just, show me the receipts as they say now.

Can we stop putting forward conspiracy theories – on both sides – and deal with, what did we used to call them? Oh yeah. FACTS.

Millions of voters already look at Trump as the Messiah, sent by God to save the country. Please. Wake up. If the Lord was going to send a messiah would He choose a man with the morals of a mongoose (no offense to mongooses).

The only redeeming value of the SCOTUS decision is that the lower court can hold a hearing where the evidence can be laid out against Trump so a determination can be made as to what is protected activity and what isn’t.  Even there, Trump recorded a win as that hearing is delayed for 32 days because  the court did not send its decision “forthwith,” which means the decision isn't an order until it gets to the lower court for 32 (now 31) days.

The judge overseeing the Jan. 6 case has, at every step, tried to expedite the case. So maybe – maybe – that hearing can be held before the election so voters an make their own determination on the evidence.

Evidence – not conspiracy theories.

As Kate Shaw in an op-ed in the New York Times said, the decision “jettisons the long-settled principle that presidents, like all others, are subject to the operation of law…It has removed a major check on the office of the presidency at the very moment when Mr. Trump is running for office on a promise to weaponize the government against those he views as enemies.”

Now, is even the Supreme Court a check on the presidency?

And no, my Trump supporting friends, Joe Biden didn’t order Trump’s prosecutions – show me the evidence. Please! Otherwise, STFU about that. I'm really tired of it.

As Justice Sonia Sotomayor said of the aptly named case “Trump vs the United States”:

“With fear for our democracy, I dissent.”


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    B. Jay Cooper

    B. Jay is a former deputy White House press secretary to Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He also headed the communications offices at the Republican National Committee, U.S. Department of Commerce, and Yale University. He is a former reporter and is the retired deputy managing director of APCO Worldwide's Washington, D.C., office.
    He is the father of three daughters and grandfather of five boys and one girl. He lives in Marion, Mass.

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