• Home
  • Blog
  • Contact
The Screaming Moderate

A 'meh' first year?

1/19/2022

0 Comments

 
Tomorrow will mark President Biden’s first year in office. How’s it going so far?

A mixed bag of successes (infrastructure, vaccine delivery, pandemic aid, youth poverty) and bad (Afghanistan,  voting rights, pandemic, perception of the economy, among others).

Call it a “meh” first year in a very challenging period of our history.

Miscalculations, there've been a few. Probably the biggest was that his well-earned reputation as a successful, competent and likeable senator (in another political era) did not result in easy (or many) legislative successes. His relationships from the days he was in the Senate are primarily gone or overtaken by sheer political greed or newcomers who think about their Twitter feed first, fund-raising second and governing maybe third, at best.

Biden, despite his years as vice president to President Obama which updated his familiarity with the Senate, never before faced such hostility from across the aisle or such push back on his proposals. Including from an invigorated Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell who has said his main goal is to block Biden’s agenda. Just as was his main goal during the Obama presidency.

Then there are senators Synema and Manchin, from his own party, who are blocking much success at all in a 50-50 Senate. The overall partisanship – both in Congress and among the populace – is at a fever pitch not seen since the Civil War.

The forces against him are strong and the mistakes of his Administration are many, including in the communications department.

Still, as his minions are saying in defense, “he was elected to four years, not one.” Problem is, unless he or his people find a winning legislative strategy in a year when Republicans are planning on taking over the Congress in the mid-term election which means little or no cooperation, the next three years aren’t likely to be much better.

Which leads us to some recent polling data.

Biden is under water, as they say, in his approval from the country. The important right track/wrong track figure: 68 percent of voters say the country is on the wrong track. Just 40 percent approve of the job Biden is doing. Republicans have become favored over Democrats to handle the economy, jobs, immigration, national security and gun policy.

Democrats barely are beating the GOP on several issues they owned just one year ago: education, the pandemic and voting rights.

Ominous too is that the public that elected him for his competence and trustworthiness now has significant doubts about his character. According to the latest POLITCO-Morning Consult poll, majorities of voters said they disagreed with the following statements:
  • Biden is energetic (58 percent)
  • Biden is a strong leader (57 percent)
  • Biden is a clear communicator (56 percent)
  • Biden keeps his promises (53 percent)
  • Biden is capable of leading the country (51 percent)

Asked to give Biden a grade one year into his term:
  • 37 percent gave him an F
  • 11 percent gave him an A
  • And 20 percent gave him a B

Meh.

Many folks voted for Biden because he is a nice guy, well credentialed AND he isn’t Donald Trump. Many of us viewed him as a “transitional” president to a quieter, more logical time than the Trump years. If Biden doesn’t seek a second term, which is likely, it’s not clear who is waiting in the wings on the Democratic side, except for Vice President Kamala Harris who is already looking at a political makeover after a less than successful first year. Of course, it's way too early to make any definitive guesses in presidential politics.

In the background is a reinvigorated former President Donald Trump who is endorsing candidates (trying to maintain his position as the leader of the GOP) and begun holding rallies again, still voicing his lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him, an argument his base gladly cheers on, overlooking entirely the facts, and the protest/insurrection that occurred on Jan. 6, motivated by Trump’s rhetoric.

Trump has potential opposition to get the 2024 nomination, primarily at the moment from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Trump acolyte who is doing scary things in Florida on the pandemic and voting rights and incurring Trump’s wrath for being ungrateful to the help and support Trump gave him in his election. Of course his wrath or his praise last only until the next bright object comes along.

It ain’t pretty no matter which side you’re on.


0 Comments

January 6 anniversary thoughts

1/5/2022

4 Comments

 
On the eve of the January 6 insurrection/riot/coup/tourists-taking-pictures, out in the open, right in front of our collective faces, former President Donald Trump is laying the groundwork for another White House bid, and this time  the lying he’s done (pretending the 2020 election was stolen from him) may wind up actually happening through seemingly legitimate avenues.  But to his benefit.

He is endorsing state-level candidates for Secretary of the State, the top person overseeing elections in states, and attorneys general, those folks who are the top state law enforcement official if there is a legal question..

While he tried to get the Georgia secretary of state, a Republican, to “find” enough votes for him to win the state in 2020, the secretary held firm and did nothing to the votes, which were officially, and legally, cast by Georgia voters.

Picture what happens if the secretary of state is someone who has been furthering Trump’s big lie (that he actually won in 2020) and who the former president endorsed. And who has blind loyalty to Trump. Picture that.

Shades of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who Trump endorsed for re-election last week. Not only is Trump’s endorsement unusual – typically American politicians stay out of other countries’ politics – but he endorsed a “political strongman,” which in this case means an autocrat. An autocrat is someone who insists on complete obedience from others and is unaccountable to anyone or any law. Sound like anyone you know?

That’s the government Trump tried to create when in office and the type of “democracy” he’d run if ever re-elected. Someone (Steve Bannon?) came up with an interesting strategy for Trump: work the system, endorse candidates who will do your bidding in key spots that oversee elections. If they get elected, they can help you get elected. If Trump gets reelected, watch out Prime Minister Orban and Vladimir Putin. You ain’t seen an autocrat until you see Donald J. Trump in power with the necessary backup at all levels of government. Then again, you both would have a solid ally.

This is why I, and a gazillion others, say our democracy is at stake in the next election. If Trumpophiles get elected, he strengthens his hand not to win fairly, but to cheat. If you don’t think that’s true, just look at what Trump’s been doing since 2016. He claimed then the election would be rigged against him, setting up an excuse when he (as even he expected) lost. What happened? He won. Fair and square. It was no longer rigged.

Early in the 2020 campaign for president he said the only way he’d lose is if the election was rigged against him. What happened? He lost the popular vote by seven million votes and got swamped in the Electoral College.

And if the Democrat’s rigged that election, two questions: Why did the Republican Senate and House members win? Or, alternatively, why didn’t the Democrats rig the election so more Democrats won? Then, their margins in Congress wouldn’t be so small that they have to plead for every vote they get among Democrats? Why not give yourselves solid majorities in each chamber?

Then, and I’ll go out on a limb here, Trump led a rebellion at the Congress on January 6, 2021, when the electoral votes are counted, as required by the Constitution. He tried to get then-Vice President Pence to cheat for him by rejecting various states’ votes, enough for him to win. And Pence refused because the Constitution doesn’t give the vice president that power. The lap dog to Trump for four years, who said and did things no one ever though Pence would say or do, may actually have heard the chants on the Hill that day to “hang Mike Pence"; but he did the right thing and followed the Constitution.

What if you get someone who will follow Trump’s lead and not follow the Constitution, the document that we have lived by for more than 200 years and has served all of us well – Democrats AND Republicans?

Imagine, if you will, a Republican Congress and Trump in the White House. Already there is talk among senior Republicans (Sen. Ted Cruz and third-ranking Republican in the House, Elise Stefanik who replaced Liz Cheney when she was thrown out of leadership for opposing Trump). They are making noises that they will impeach President Joe Biden for his policies at the southern border. Huh? I dunno, but if they’re in power, they will try do it. And with Trump’s hold on the Party, no Republican will be against it.

Meantime, Republicans are pushing state-level efforts at changing voting laws not to expand voter participation but to restrict it – well, at least among those groups they see as being against them. In some states, they are putting the state legislature in position to overturn elections in their states.

To protect against that, Democrats in the Senate want to pass a federal law expanding voting rights. Who’s blocking that? Well, every Republican senator and one or two Democratic senators who agree with the legislation but disagree with doing away with the Senate filibuster to get it done. Why? According to Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the key Democratic blocker: he’s for the change but only if it is voted on with a bi-partisan majority. No Republican senator has supported either the voting changes the Democrats are pushing and no Republican is for changing the filibuster.

I can hear some of my Republican friends saying, “yeah, but what about those Democrats who refuse to vote for any bill sponsored by any Republican who voted against impeaching Trump? Those Democrats are being silly. They are elected to serve their constituents not their own egos. But, it doesn’t exactly rise to setting up a system to, oh, what’s the word I’m looking for? Oh, yeah, rig a presidential election.

A recent YouGov poll shows that just 38 percent of the people expect the losing side in a presidential election to concede peacefully while 62 percent said they foresee “violence over losing” an election.

That is a poll of Americans. Americans. Nearly four in 10 Americans expect the losing side in an American presidential election to concede peacefully in America. That means, if my math is correct, that six in 10 Americans don’t expect a peaceful concession.
​
In America.
4 Comments

    RSS Feed

     
    Follow @bjaycooper

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013

    B. Jay Cooper

    B. Jay is a former deputy White House press secretary to Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He also headed the communications offices at the Republican National Committee, U.S. Department of Commerce, and Yale University. He is a former reporter and is the retired deputy managing director of APCO Worldwide's Washington, D.C., office.
    He is the father of three daughters and grandfather of five boys and one girl. He lives in Marion, Mass.

powered by bjaycooper.com