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The Screaming Moderate

Will we see a Trump truce over the holiday?

12/21/2017

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As the days of 2017 dwindle, the narrative on President Trump has begun its shift.

Media tend to move together as to their “narratives.” Up to now, Trump has been portrayed as a stumbling, inexperienced, petty dolt. The last couple of days he is getting credit for not being the best-ever President but one who has accomplished some things. What, you may ask, has he accomplished? Well, as noted here before his main accomplishments (whether you agree with his policies or not) have been:
  • Getting his “big, beautiful” tax package passed for his first real legislative victory just before time runs out on the year
  • Appointing conservative judges to district and federal courts, as well as the Supreme Court
  • Presiding over a healthy economy (and it’s becoming the Trump Economy)
  • Cutting regulations which likely has contributed to the economy

The other side of that is:
  • We’ll see if his tax package does create jobs and puts more money in the pockets of middle-class families or if it just feathers the nest eggs of the wealthy
  • I’m not a huge fan of conservative (or liberal) judges but judges to tend to move to the middle once appointed
  • Not sure what the consequences are of the regulation reduction on the environment or workers
  • The economy always  hits a ceiling and comes back down at some point

Having said all that, he hasn’t had the worst of first years.  Where many of us have a problem with him is his style -- lying, beating up important United States’ institutions (i.e., the media, the courts, the legislative branch), and his foreign policy skills, or lack thereof. Oh, and his tweeting.

If the media narrative continues being more positive, it will be interesting to see who Trump makes his enemy because a hero always needs an enemy in a TV drama. I doubt he gives up on beating the media, but if the coverage balances out, will anyone buy his “fake news” mantra? Probably his “base” will always believe it.

As James Carville once so splendidly put it, though, “it’s the economy, stupid.” The economy has been fine, not booming but fine. The stock market does seem to travel in one direction the last couple of years but that, too, has to hit a limit at some point, we’ve learned.

Personally, I don’t have a problem cutting the corporate tax rate as long as their loopholes are eliminated at the same time (which they are not in the recent tax bill) but I do have a problem with the timing. Corporations are sitting on piles of money now that they don’t invest here. Will they bring back that money they’ve stored in other countries now that they have lower rates? And, if they do bring it back, will they spend it on higher wages and more jobs? 

A few companies already have said they will give bonuses to employees when the bill is signed, but they’ve enjoyed no benefits from the tax cuts yet so I’m not sure what their true motivations are. So, is it purely to reward their employees or to gain favor with a President who clearly enjoys having homage paid to him regularly -- as evidenced yesterday by both his Cabinet meeting where grown men and women took turns singing Trump’s praises and the same at the event where most of the Republican caucus stood behind him as their leaders took turns praising the President.

As to the middle class, I’m sure some will be happy to see more money in their paychecks. Others will see their taxes increase. We’ll have a better idea this time next year as to whether the middle class is happy with the tax cut or not and whether its impact was felt. Actually, those results will be known a month or so earlier when the mid-term Congressional elections are held.

Trump’s foreign policy gambits haven’t had any true impact yet that we've been able to see. We still have a significant Korean Peninsula issue. We still have his odd relationship with the Russian leader. And just in the last 24 hours he’s threatened to cut US. money   to any country who votes in the United Nations against Trump recognizing Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. Not your traditional position to take in the U.N. This is not normal in foreign relations. This is bullying.

Bottom line, Trump is what he is. A 71-year-old, set in his ways billionaire marketer who is used to getting his way in a company where the employees seem to be primarily family.

The roller coaster ride isn’t over but we may see a holiday truce as Trump basks in what he’ll see as praise.


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Things that make you go 'hmmmm'

12/14/2017

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Picture
As Arsenio Hall said, “little things that make you go hmmm.”

Our days, I know are filled with these kinds of things from President Trump, little and big in fact, but in the past few days he's had some beauties.

For example, never at a loss of a finger to point at someone else for a mistake, the President took credit for predicting Roy Moore’s stunning Senate loss the other day. How? Well, when he chose to back the incumbent, Luther Strange, in the GOP primary against Moore, he said Roy couldn’t win a general. Then he endorsed Roy. Roy lost. That President, he is never wrong! How lucky are we? Hmmmm.

Yesterday Omarosa Manigault was fired or resigned. She’s the former three-time loser on Trump’s “Apprentice” reality show. He named her an assistant to the President upon taking office and “director of communications “in the office of business liaison, which paid her more than $170,000. Not known in the past as one of the White House’s top jobs (in fact, when I served two presidents in the press office, I don’t recall the job existing).

Anyway, Omarosa supposedly had walk-in privileges to the White House, or said she did. Uh, until this morning when she said only when the President called. Anyway, Omarosa was fired yesterday by Chief of Staff John Kelly. Omarosa says she resigned. Among other questionable things, she brought her entire wedding party into the White House for wedding photos, supposedly telling no one beforehand. She was the senior African American on the White House staff by virtue of being the only one. No one really knew what she did, least of all the chief of staff.

She said this morning on ABC that she and Kelly met in the Situation Room in the White House where her departure was discussed. Now I don’t know how this White House operates (who does?) but the Situation Room, site of, for example, where President Obama and others watched the take-down of bin Laden live and where  Top Secret war talks are held, is not typically a place to discuss the employment future of a business liaison staffer. Hmmmm.

Trump did a speech from the White House yesterday pressing for passage of his “giant” tax cut legislation where the White House invited average folks to come and speak from the same podium as Trump, about how wonderful he was to do this for them. Introducing them, Trump cited precisely how much money each would save from his “Christmas gift of a giant tax cut.” Don’t ask me how he knew because as of that event, the Hill reportedly was still cutting deals. This is a double hmmmm because it was exactly the same scenario as that Cabinet meeting where his Cabinet secretaries, except for Defense’s Gen. Mattis, sang his praises for his enjoyment. Hmmmm Hmmmm.

I realize so far it’s been all Trump, but isn’t everything these days? Here’s one that isn’t. Well, not entirely.

Steve Bannon, Trump’s former on-staff Chief Strategist and now apparently his Chief Strategist from Outside the White House, has been Mr. Big Shot, grabbing credit for Trump’s presidential win among other things. His latest was talking Trump into endorsing Roy Moore in Alabama. Trump did. Roy lost. Now, Cong. Peter King (R-N.Y.) says that Bannon looks like a “disheveled drunk” and reportedly White House aides are telling King to “keep it up.” Hmmmm.

Remember, of course you do, when Trump promised (repeatedly and ad nauseam) on the campaign to build that wall between us and Mexico “and Mexico will pay for it”? Well according to a report from the Democratic staff of the Senate Homeland Security committee, the budget office is “planning to offset the steep cost of a Mexico border wall by instructing the Department of Homeland Security to cut spending on surveillance technology and freeze the pay of federal officers in the 2019 fiscal year.”

That “offset” (transferring that money to the wall construction) is over a billion dollars.
I know this surprises no one that we are paying for the wall. But, seriously:  the president of Mexico has said Mexico isn’t paying for it, polls show that even those who voted for Trump never believed he’d build a wall and Trump was caught saying he never intended to build the wall.

So, uh, why he is taking money from important technology that actually is proven to help control illegal immigration for a wall that will take years to build – thus keeping a Trump promise no one expected him to keep. Hmmmm.


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Enjoy the day...and keep fighting

12/13/2017

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Don’t we all feel better this morning?

This Alabama election took on a meaning beyond itself. So important on so many levels:
  • Keeping a child molester out of office
  • Keeping out of office a guy who puts the Good Book ahead of  Constitutional law
  • Keeping out of office a man whose wife proclaimed – particularly for the media to hear I guess so she could really make her point – that they have  a JEW (emphasis not added) lawyer, proving in her mind that she isn’t a bigot. I’m surprised she didn’t say also that he handles their money really well too.
  • Black voters, especially black female voters, are getting credit, finally, for the difference they can make in an election. Look for leaders of the black community to demand more for their support of Democrats and, maybe finally, get it.
  • It showed that Alabama overcame the weight of nearly always going Republican to rising up and electing a Democrat for the first time since the state’s other senator, Dick Shelby, though he switched parties a couple years later. And, to his credit, he chose to go on national television the Sunday before this election to say he couldn’t vote for Moore and cast his ballot for a write-in.
  • While Sen. McConnell did the right thing by saying he wanted no part of Roy Moore, he also complicated his life because he has one fewer Republican vote than he had and the “new” Senate means that one Republican senator can extract much for his or her vote.
  • We don’t have to watch the Republicans in the Senate contort themselves on ways to keep Moore out of the Senate despite voters electing him.
  • The voters gave President Trump and his “chief strategist,” Steve Bannon, their comeuppance. Finally.
Bannon can point fingers at McConnell, Trump can point a finger at the write-in vote that he says cost the Republicans a victory. But those on the other side can point to the fact that the RNC pulled its money from Moore a few weeks ago only to be ordered to reverse course by Trump who had a foot on the Moore train since the beginning and both feet the last couple of weeks.

Trump lost in the state twice, backing incumbent Luther Strange in the primary and losing to Moore and then saddling up with Moore for the election and losing again.  It will be hard to defend Trump or the RNC when the Democrats hang Roy Moore around their necks for at least the next year.

And, maybe the #metoo bloc can gain more momentum to say that gender and sexual abuse of women’s day has come.

With all the analysis we have read and will read I think the best part of yesterday’s election was it gives those on the anti-Trump train hope that the country has not gone off the deep end completely.  While the pundits can point to the President having “only” 48 percent approval in Alabama, they should also note that his national approval is around 35 percent, so Alabama’s isn’t so horrible for him. And while Trump may see Alabama as a state he won on his own, maybe (though I doubt it) he’ll get that Alabama is/was one of the easiest states for Republicans to win.  Hell, I could have won Alabama in the presidential election.

This win, by as small a margin as it was (again, big, though, in ‘Bama terms) will give the Democrats hope that they can field stronger candidates next year and will give the anti-Trump GOP senators reinforcement that maybe they aren’t all wrong in thinking the President isn't all right. The win shows that the candidate matters not who supports him.

But don’t go off the deep end. Yesterday proved he can be beat. There are many more rounds ahead.


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Of all the promises to keep..

12/8/2017

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President Trump thus far has fallen short on many of his promises that involve others (Congress) to carry out. He has, though, had his Cabinet busy changing regulations and this week announced what he can unilaterally do – move the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

That’s the one promise you keep? The one that separates us from most allies, all of the Arab world and led immediately to violence in the Middle East? That’s the one? The one that threatens even the possibility of Middle East peace?

And, you gave it away getting nothing in return. Maybe you could have asked Bibi to stop the settlements … or something... in return for this giveaway? Mr. Negotiator. By the way, when do we get to experience this talent you bragged about, being the best negotiator in the world? I’ve seen no example of it in your first year. None.

I’m reading a book about the Bush presidencies. The book quotes a letter Bush 41 wrote to his sons when Bush was chairman of the Republican National Committee and Richard Nixon was days from resigning. It said in part:

“In judging your President, give him credit for enormous achievements. . . but understand too that the power accompanied by arrogance is very dangerous. It’s particularly dangerous when men with no real experience have it—for they can abuse our great institutions…Don’t assign away your judgment to achieve power.”

Prescient. And the words of a leader.

Trump made hundreds of promises on his campaign (not counting the things he told us to “believe me” on). Of all of them, the easiest to keep – as far as getting consensus – was the embassy decision. Because did not need any consensus.

He did ask his secretary of state and his secretary of defense what they thought and both opposed the move. He asked his son-in-law, a man with no diplomatic experience and who is in charge of, among other things, Middle East peace – who said in effect, “do it Dad.”

He did it.

I have no idea if Trump and/or his campaign “colluded” with the Russians on the election. My guess is not really but they sure gave the appearance of doing so.

Trump may not be guilty of conspiracy but he clearly is guilty of naiveté.

He has put Middle East peace, at best always a long shot, at risk and he is on the verge of helping elect a man to the U.S. Senate who is an alleged child molester, speaks enough Russian to use it in an interview to show his respect for Vladimir Putin (Google it. It’s on YouTube), waves a loaded gun around while speaking to supporters, says he is religious but touches 14-year-olds between their legs and pledges his undying affection to Donald Trump.

In the middle of a hugely changing climate in this society regarding treatment of women, Trump sits smugly knowing he has molested women, is on videotape bragging about it but denies it’s his voice on the tape.

We’re beyond Bizarro world here.

And, I remind you, it is the real world now.

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Odds but not-so ends

12/1/2017

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 Republican Tax Bill. When the independent research institutions say the current proposed Republican tax bill benefits the rich far more than the rest of us – I believe them. When they say the bill will increase the national debt by $1 trillion over 10 years, I believe them. We’ll see if the purported “deficit hawks” in the Senate believe them. For Trump, who refuses to release his taxes as presidents and presidential candidates have for decades, tells me to “believe me,” that’s exactly when I believe him least.

“Trump Economy.” In a speech the other day, Trump said: "We've created nearly two million jobs…Think of it. We used to lose millions. Now we've created two million jobs since I won the election."

Not true.  New job pace is good, but below where it was in 2016 and Trump is claiming two million jobs created since he was elected which includes November and December of 2016, when he was not in office so he had nothing to do with the job market nor, I would argue has he had a huge impact on the economy since his inauguration. He apparently likes to think that jobs were created in November and December anticipating his presidency but my guess is at that point most of us were worried about his presidency.

Trump Economy II. Where the President may have had an effect on the economy is by loosening various regulations. This is where the media has not kept us as well informed as they have about his Twitter activity. His administration is changing regulations, which they have the power to do. Those regulations may improve conditions for business to make investments, but what are the consequences, if any, of the regulation changes on our environment, our employment protections and more? Would be nice to know.

Trump Economy III. One quote that hit me in the stomach the other day was when Trump said: “Actually, the rich people don’t like me, which is sort of interesting, and that’s fine. I — you know what? I like that trade. But really, the people that like me best are those people, the workers. They’re the people I understand the best. Those are the people I grew up with. Those are the people I worked on construction sites with.”

I added the emphasis because ... I mean really? Trump grew up among the working class? Not from any bio I’ve read about him. Did he see workers on his job sites? I’m sure he did but did he interact with them, show concern about their happiness with their jobs, their pay,  how their families are doing? Unlikely. And his working “with” them on construction sites was them working and him visiting.

You may have not noticed. Trump today will have lunch with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary James Mattis. There’s another attendee: The Elephant in the Room, which are the reports that the White House is angling to relieve Tillerson of his duties. It seems mister “You’re fired!” doesn’t really fire many people. He publicly embarrasses them until they resign. Tillerson has not been good at his job but I thank goodness he is there when Trump calls the North Korean leader “rocket man” and says there’s only one thing the Koreans understand. And you do not want a “yes man” at the State Department which is what we may get.

Shutdown Watch. Trump reportedly is telling confidants that shutting the government down may be politically good for him. Probably so. He doesn’t depend on the government for his income or much of anything else, except his own First Amendment rights. Shutting down the government, we’ve learned, is good for no one else. Trump sees it as a way to solidify his base. Plus, Trump cares about two things – good headlines and does he have someone to blame. He is considering whether shutting the government is a good headline for himself and he already knows he will blame the Democrats.

Sexual abuse watch. Each day we seem to read a new boldface name who has allegedly committed sexual abuse or harassment. I say “allegedly” out of an old journalism reflex. I, too, believe the women. Will Trump ever be held accountable for his abuses, and sexual attacks?
 

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    B. Jay Cooper

    B. Jay is a former deputy White House press secretary to Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He also headed the communications offices at the Republican National Committee, U.S. Department of Commerce, and Yale University. He is a former reporter and is the retired deputy managing director of APCO Worldwide's Washington, D.C., office.
    He is the father of three daughters and grandfather of five boys and one girl. He lives in Marion, Mass.

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