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The Screaming Moderate

As the onion peels...

11/30/2018

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You have to have patience to peel an onion and Robert Mueller, the independent counsel on the “did Russia muck in our election” probe, may be the best onion peeler in history.

The Trump Organization has long operated as a marketing company, selling the “Trump brand,” putting it on alcohol, beef, buildings and anything else that would pay it a buck for many years.

As a marketer, as we’re learning now, the Organization put its toe in many lakes around the world including Russia. But they never got their whole foot in – in spite of aggressive efforts by many on its behalf including Trump personal attorney Michael Cohen, who was along for the ride but jumped off when it was clear the Trump Organization  leadership was not behind him when the going got tough.

The drive for money by the Organization appears to have put Donald J. Trump and his children on a very decent ride for years and they envisioned would be even more worthwhile while Dad ran for President.

Trump’s foreign policy has been confusing to those of us who looked at foreign policy as something good for our country but became dominated by what was best for the Trumps. Thus countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia were given prominence in Trump’s campaign and  his presidency and the rest of us had to scratch our heads wondering why he was building up Vladimir Putin and defending the Saudi Arabian crown prince who ordered the murder of a journalist.

There also were Cohen’s discussions with Russia about a Trump branded building in Moscow, an endeavor that lingered on for many months beyond what was known publicly. So, Trump was negotiating or trying to with the Russians as he promised other things to his potential voters, who were clueless as to Trump’s personal goals. He swore to the high heavens that he had nothing to do with Russia, that the lives of average Americans were  his sole concern.

If anyone doubted it before, it is now clear that Donald J. Trump never expected to win the presidency but he leveraged his candidacy to mine potential deals in Russia and other places while standing as a candidate for the Republican nomination. The President admitted that as he headed to his helicopter to fly to the G-20 meeting yesterday. He said he could have lost the election and thus did not want to cut off his personal opportunities to make money. It likely didn’t stop there since Trump, like the rest of us, never anticipated a Trump presidency.

And now, here he is – up to his armpits in lies to cover his attempts at leveraging his candidacy for business. Shockingly to most of us, and Trump himself, he won the election and now is buried in a pile of lies over his greedy efforts to make money off his candidacy and, probably, off his presidency. It’s gotta be hard to put that greed on hold while you sit in the most powerful chair in the world. Talk about temptation.

Now you can see a few of the reasons he doesn’t want to unveil his tax returns – they would show what deals or loans are in his background that might take some luster off his presidency even in the eyes of his strongest supporters. One thing the President is about to learn is that politicians have no loyalty at all once they see your ship sinking.  He’ll learn they have about as much loyalty as he does. Not good timing as the Democrats prepare to take over the House and have subpoena power.

The independent counsel investigation, especially under the watchful and steady eye of Robert Mueller, is like watching that onion being peeled. Paul Manafort may be running from the deal he’d made with Mueller but you can count on the fact that Mueller has evidence to prove whatever Manafort would have testified to anyway.

Comparisons are being made of the Trump Organization to an organized crime enterprise and those will be legitimate comparisons as this goes on. While not the same, Trump clearly sees himself as the King of at least his own Universe, impervious to the rules and laws that others of us must abide.

His children are about to see that dad’s universe truly doesn’t exist on its own, but within laws and rules and mores of this country. Had Trump but stayed a private citizen a lot of what he’s done throughout his career likely would never have come to light. Much of it doesn’t really matter, but those things he has done as a candidate and our President do matter.

You can also clearly see now why he continues to strike out at the media and judiciary, trying to delegitimize both so he can seem more credible to his followers. He will say he is a victim of the media and judges. The Donald is always The Victim.

The presidency clearly has cut into the Trump Organization's ability to strike huge deals. In fact, the Trump brand is suffering hits not just in this country but, probably more importantly, in other countries the Organization has targeted for years. And Trump did himself no favors by treating his global peers like fleas itching him as he continued sucking up to folks like Putin, Kim and the Crown Prince. He’ll also learn that Putin and the others have no loyalty to him.

 Those who have watched Robert Mueller over the years know he’s a standup guy. So stand up that if there was nothing to “get” Trump on, then Mueller wouldn’t try to get him.

Meantime, the onion, though, is still being peeled.

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If you're going to pimp out the United States...

11/21/2018

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Thanks to President Trump, the United States now is condoning murder by the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.

At the same time, he is looking the other way while the Saudis continue to mistreat and abuse women (despite that same Crown Prince’s smiling way of saying he’s making things better for women. "Hey, I'm letting them drive!"). Trump is  still attacking judges appointed by his predecessor. He also is overlooking his daughter’s mistakes regarding email that are similar to his former presidential opponent ("Lock her up!!!") and, well, it’s only early morning Wednesday so who knows what else.

This man, the President of the United  States, is not a good man. Let me repeat: he is condoning the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia’s order to murder and dismember (possibly while he still was breathing) an “opponent” – a journalist. He may have done it or not, the very decisive President Trump concludes. But, hell, let’s treat it as if he didn’t do it because he said he’d buy $400 billion of war products from us.  

Oh, and my advice to you, Mr. President, is: If you’re going to pimp out the United States’ values, at least get the money up front because it’s unlikely the Saudis will ever buy those armaments and, if they do, they may wind up pointed at us. Why get the money up front? Because my guess is the prince’s word is as good as yours.  Jus’ sayin’.

My friends, we are not in the Twilight Zone. We cannot make Trump’s behavior the new normal and overlook it because his latest outrage isn’t as outrageous as his previous  outrage. My friends who read this and continue to support this man, you need to reassess whether your lives are really as better off as you think they are.

Because his tax cut is a failure, his economy (yes it’s his economy now) got a jump start from the last administration (whether you like that fact or not) and the market, as one indicator Trump liked pointing to for so long, has now lost all its yearlong gains. If he takes credit for its past strength, he also gets blame for the current declines. Sorry,  time to put on your big boy pants and accept responsibility.

He did accept blame, kinda sorta, when he said he should have gone to Arlington National Cemetery on Veterans’ Day. Duh. Okay…it’s true. Your fear of going into a war zone is one thing (and I’m not condoning that, you are, after all the Commander in Chief) but going to Arlington??? Who’s gonna attack you there? A bicyclist giving you the finger? Oh, that’s already happened, and…you survived!!!! Brave man, surrounded by buff men and women with automatic weapons.

The front page of the Washington Post today led with the President’s decision to not accuse the Crown Prince of ordering a murder (and don’t think that isn’t being applauded in dictators’ offices around the world today!). The Post had a sidebar on the mistreatment of Saudi women and the next story that caught your eye was the one about how the acting Attorney General – that man who of course never winked at the President regarding how he’d handle the special counsel’s probe into Russia mucking with our election and the President’s campaign’s possible collusion – a few years ago took over a dormant non-profit, raised right-wing dollars and became its only employee and then used it as a platform for right-wing attacks, and got paid more than a million bucks along the way. A shining example of an Attorney General who will defend Americans against crime!!

And, yes, I hear my Trump-supporting friends right now saying, "yeah, but what about..." I'm done listening to "what abouts" because we aren't talking about "them," we're talking about Trump. Stay on topic and then we can get to your what abouts later!!!

And, yes, I’m using exclamation points just as Trump did in his statement on the Saudi prince because, well, doesn’t that make it more emphatic, more true?

If you buy that, then let me end this way:

Trump continues to chop down the values this country was founded on, and every president since Washington has upheld. Until now!!!!!
 

And, for emphasis, !!!!!!!!
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Trump escalates attacks on US institutions

11/13/2018

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One of Donald Trump’s aims has been to reduce the public’s confidence in American institutions which have not just buttressed but are the reason America is America – freedom of the press and belief in our election system, for two.

In just about a week he escalated his game in those two areas by pulling the credentials of CNN’s Jim Accosta, and threatening to pull others, and by attacking the vote-counting still underway in Florida, where he enlisted to his cause that state’s governor who is also the GOP candidate for senator in the not-finished count.

The unfinished counts include ballots filed by military men and women serving overseas whose deadline for voting was a few days after the election. By stopping the counting on Election Night, as Trump has called for, he would disenfranchise those serving us overseas, in addition to not following the Florida laws which require recounts when certain closeness of the vote occurs. And right around when the country celebrated Veterans' Day.

Whether people support Trump or not, these two escalating attacks in his war on America cannot be supported. CNN this morning filed suit to get Accosta’s credential back. They will succeed even if that case goes to the Supreme Court, which I’m sure Trump goes to bed at night thinking he has in his pocket thanks to his two appointees to the court. He’s in for a rude awakening, I believe, because a 10-year-old could decide the cases based on our Constitution and laws in those two instances.

CNN, of course, is correct in going to court to get the return of the credentials. Whether people like Accosta’s style or not he asks the right questions, questions that irk Trump to the point of pulling his White House pass, which is unprecedented.

Calls for the White House press corps to protest that action by boycotting the “daily” press briefing are wrong. The press corps is there to report on the White House, whether they are lied to in those briefings or not. Their job is to report the results of the briefing and to point out any lies or errors. The craft of fact-checking has never been in such demand as it is the last two or three years with a candidate and now President who  may lie more often than he tells the truth (the fact-checkers say that in effect because Trump has gone from lying about eight times a day to more than 30).

The attacks on our democratic election system are equally dangerous and cause for great alarm. The still-contested races in Florida (governor, senator, secretary of the state) are very close – not a surprise in Florida based on its track record. Its electorate splits literally down the middle. Trump, though, proclaimed victory Election Night largely on the appearance that his party gained several seats in the Senate. Those victories are peeling away, and Trump can’t have that. There has to be a reason “he” is being rejected and the reason cannot be him.

He tried to get the Arizona GOP senate candidate and state party types to protest a la Florida but they refused. And to the Republican Senate candidate’s credit, she gave gracious concession remarks yesterday when the counting ended and she went from winning to losing.

The biggest question in the Florida count is in Broward County, scene of the great Gore-Bush main event in 2000. That is a predominantly Democratic county so it’s no great surprise to most logical thinkers anyway that the Democrats will pick up votes there. But likely not enough votes to pull out wins.

With all the damning and complaining by Trump and Scott, most political observers will tell you that the likely winners in Florida are Republican Scott for Senate and the Republican for governor, just as it appeared on Election Night. They are close to their opponents but too far ahead to lose, based on trends of past elections.

As to Scott and Trump’s claims of phony ballots being involved not only has there been no proof at all provided by them, the governor’s own department of law has said it has seen no evidence.

In a related development – meaning lying -- Donald Trump Jr., who learned politics form his father, tweeted a story from a Miami TV station exclaiming there were 200,000 unqualified voters who voted in Florida!!

Trump Jr’s tweet:

 “Amazing, but not shocking at all anymore. Nearly 200,000 Florida Voters May Not Be Citizens https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Nearly-200000-Florida-Voters-May-Not-Be-Citizens-151212725.html … via @nbc6”

Well, first, the story was from 2012 and they were talking about the 2012 elections, which was pointed out in an editor’s note on top of the posted story. Other corrections were in that Editor’s Note which read:

“The initial list of 180,000 names was whittled to 2,625, according to the Florida Department of State. The state then checked a federal database and stated it found 207 noncitizens on the rolls (not necessarily voting but on the rolls). That list was sent to county election supervisors to check and it also turned out to contain errors. An Aug. 1, 2012, state elections document showed only 85 noncitizens were ultimately removed from the rolls out of a total of about 12 million voters at that time.”

Like father like son, and the son has his sights set on a political future too! Joy.


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We ain't seen nothin' yet

11/8/2018

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For those handful of Americans who held to the thought that Donald J. Trump at some point would become kinder and gentler, yesterday should have convinced you otherwise.

Trump told a reporter the other night that among his “regrets” is that he hasn’t been “softer” in his approach to his public image.

Two days later day he held an hour-and-a-half press conference in which he:
  • threatened House Democrats with investigating them if they investigated him;
  • ordered a female reporter who is black to “sit down” when she rose to ask a question but he had hadn’t called on her;
  • told another female reporter who is black that her question to him was racially motivated, which it was not;
  • fired his Attorney General as the Department of Justice’s special counsel reportedly is getting ready to announce more indictments (possibly of Trump’s son);
  • installed a loyalist as AG temporarily who is on record saying that special counsel has overstepped his bounds;
  • not only mistreated another male reporter who is white as he asked difficult questions but later had that reporter’s White House pass pulled temporarily – something that to my recollection has never occurred before;
  • And, finally, had the White House put out a doctored video of the incident purportedly showing that reporter “laying hands on” the intern who tried to take away the microphone despite dozens of witnesses who said he never touched her. And, after watching the video many times myself, he did not touch her but did "accost" her by saying “excuse me, ma’am.” Still the White House doctored a video that shows he touched her despite video evidence to the contrary.
In fact, while some may have quarrels with that reporter’s, CNN’s Jim Acosta, hardline approach to this administration, in my watching him in briefings, while his questions are often not just difficult but quite accusatory, he has never been anything but polite with the press secretary or the president. And, he was equally polite to that intern grasping at the microphone and the White House guard who took away his pass (Acosta recorded that experience. I watched it too.). He even thanked the guard for his service.

Ladies and gentlemen, if you didn’t know it before, you saw it yesterday in public view. This President is not a democratic president, he is an authoritarian and  is dangerous to this country’s values and laws. Freedom of the press is not an assumed right, it is written in the First Amendment. Attorney General Jeff Sessions didn’t resign as AG, he was fired, as Sessions made clear in his letter which began “At your (Trump’s) request,” he was submitting his resignation. Of course Trump didn't directly fire Sessions. He had his chief of staff do it.

Trump believes the AG is his attorney. The AG is the peoples' attorney, not the President's. He put in a Trump loyalist temporarily to fill that job (and take over the special counsel’s investigation) but he will nominate an equally malleable man or woman to take Sessions’ place permanently. That will open doors likely to many more odd applications of the AG's role and the Constitution's protections. He will, of course, expect the two men he appointed to the Court to back him up if and when matters come to them.

Trump keeps referring to the special counsel's probe as being “into whether there was collusion” and into him – it is not. It is an investigation into Russia’s mucking in our election in 2016. As some proof, multiple indictments have been filed against Russian individuals and countries not for contacts with Trump or his people, but into their hacking into our election. The special counsel's mandate is to, also, follow any other leads that may come up that could be illegal. The counsel can follow on his own or can parcel them out to U.S. attorneys, as he has.

All this after Trump said in his post-election press conference that Tuesday was a big win for him (not the party, him) when it was far from a big win for either. The Democrats took over the House, which is a major change for his second two years in the White House, increased governorships and won a couple hundred state legislative seats. Now, he will not only be challenged in how he conducts the nation’s business but he will be investigated by Democrats with subpoena power.

He can continue to bully with reporters, foes, friends and other countries but he won’t be as free to get away with it. His diehard supporters likely will think that is just the establishment in Washington picking on him more. But they will be holding this President accountable, as any president should be.

 

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The votes are in .. now what?

11/7/2018

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Yesterday’s "split" election results present various opportunities, challenges and decisions for the next couple of years.

First, President Trump can choose to not change his stripes and remain the confrontation, base-focused president he's been. The up side to that is he gets to continue his story-line of “us versus” them as he begins his re-election campaign, and can point to the Democratic House as the reason nothing gets done in Washington.

 Soon-to-be-Speaker-again Nancy Pelosi then needs to determine her strategy which at the moment looks to be strong but not overly threatening – she’s taken impeachment off the table for now, a smart move since impeachment will not succeed with a GOP Senate and it would set the wrong tone for the House Democrats right now.

She has the power of the investigation and subpoena to wield against Trump, a Washington he has not experienced before, a Washington where his Cabinet will be on the Hill often to testify and justify what they did and how they did it. Those investigations, even if they prove nothing, have a way of drowning a Cabinet member and his or her staff in paper and questions, sucking up the time for anything much else.

Prognosis for the country: continued Washington stagnation which Trump will see as good for him since he is so base- and self-focused. In this scenario a more traditional president would look to foreign affairs as his focus where he needs to worry less about the Congress backing him.

 With Trump though it seems like there is trouble in his North Korea efforts, the  Khashoggi issue remains with the Saudis, China is smugly ignoring him, the Europeans, well, we all know how his efforts to make them our enemies have been going.

Second, President Trump decides to stay his transactional self and moves to play nice with House Democrats so he can actually accomplish something as he heads toward his reelection effort.

There are things he and Democrats can agree on: infrastructure, which also was there for his taking when he began his presidency; health care, where he’d have to reverse course on some matters to get to agreement, but we know he has no trouble switching positions on a dime. This would tick off the Republicans, of course, but when has that worried Trump?
 
To take that more friendly approach with House Democrats, he’d have to convince himself his base truly would be with him even if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue but he seems capable of working that magic.

Trump and the Republican Party have another challenge to think about. As my wife, former Boston Globe and CNN political reporter Chris Black, likes to point out: the Republicans are on the wrong side of the future of America demographically.

Yesterday saw, on the Democratic side, big wins for women as they won many more seats in the House; they also won seats with female Muslim candidates, and the black and Hispanic vote likely went heavily Democrat as did the suburban, educated, white female vote. As we go through the “browning of America,” Republicans likely won a majority of over 65 white votes, not a growing demographic.

Trump, though, is a short-term thinker. While the GOP needs to worry about branching out to a wider swath of voters (which they've needed to do far before Trump) for it to compete in the future, Trump will be thinking only about his election, and he is unlikely to attract those voters. Even if he tried, they would see through his hypocrisy. Thus, the party and Trump will be bumping heads over where to spend its resources, and Trump likely wins that argument to the long-term detriment of his party

Trump also wants to almost immediately begin staging more rallies, where he feels in control, loved and powerful and, most importantly, the center of attention. To maintain his popularity among that crowd he can’t waver too much from his first two years even if he wants to. Clearly, he needs to keep his base intact for his reelection and hopping into agreements with the House Democrats won’t win him any votes with that crowd, especially since it would mean making nice to Nancy Pelosi.

So, while the overall numbers yesterday were at best a split victory  between the GOP and the Democrats, the takeover of the House by Democrats is a major change for the next two years on many levels and creates a list of sensitive, strategic decisions to make on both sides.

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The polls are history, last chance to vote

11/5/2018

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Polls are great fun but they are only good for the time they were taken. They won’t tell us what’s going to happen tomorrow, but they can show trends.  

Despite the accepted belief that the polls did not predict Donald Trump’s victory in 2015, they did predict quite closely the popular vote, which was won by Hillary Clinton. National polls by their nature don't predict the Electoral College, which is determined by state by state results.

Similar dynamics may be in play this year. The generic ballot shows, nationally, who’s leading – the Democrats or Republicans. You need to look at the district by district polls to get some sense of the reality of who will be the majority in the House. But, thanks to aggregators like the Cook Report and others, we can get a sense. Those polls show the Democrats are likely to retake the House but not the Senate. And there are those gubernatorial races that are key and very interesting, including in Georgia and Florida. Still there will, no doubt, be surprises.

The closing messages are interesting. President Trump, despite party leaders entreaties, has returned to what worked for him in 2016 and is stressing immigration over the economy.  He likes to create "us versus them" conflicts and that's what he's doing. The Democrats are focused primarily on health care.

Mid-term elections often are report cards on the incumbent president and Trump has made that clearly the decision this year. He has said to his supporters to consider that he is on the ballot, worried that the candidates won’t win on their own and worried about getting his voters to the polls.

To that end his lying has increased. 

Whether it’s the steady progress he tells us about his “wall” (which has not even begun construction), or the “invasion” of immigrants  from our southern border and all the bad people hiding in that invasion (even Trump has said there's no proof of that), he  also is lying a lot. One fact-checker counted 83 lies on a single day.

Based on anecdotal evidence, interestingly, from reporters asking people on the ground, his supporters know he is lying and they give him a pass on it seemingly for two reasons: he’s delivering in their minds on the economy and judges and he “talks like they do.”

Those who go around saying his supporters are “stupid” should rethink their position. As Pat Banker, a retired registered nurse, told the Washington Post, “I don’t think he lies. He gets excited when he’s talking and  he likes to exaggerate a little bit. But that’s just his way.”

Or Hope Heisler, an emergency room doctor, who said, “I’m not a fact-checker. All of the candidates whether they be Republican or Democrat, don’t say things completely accurately all the time. But I trust in President Trump.”

Those may be excuses for Trump, but those are not uneducated women voicing them.

As to who wins the House, likely the Democrats, though it could be a late night as there are many very tight races. The GOP is likely to keep and even improve their majorities in the Senate. I’m looking to the Democrats to win in the important Florida governor race (important especially to the 2020 election) and for Georgia to elect the country’s first black woman governor. That one may be contested after because of allegations of voter suppression and other matters. But even that possibility in Georgia is a huge political statement about the demographic changes in the country.

Assuming I’m right (and, yes, it’s mostly the conventional wisdom), we have some dark days to look forward to.

With the Democrats in charge of the House, the President will be unable to get his legislation passed. Heck, he even has trouble with that now when the GOP controls all branches of government. With Democratic chairmen of committees, we can look forward to more hearings into the administration though no effort at impeachment since that is politically tricky turf and with a GOP Senate, it goes nowhere anyway.

Trump will take credit for keeping control of the Senate and blame House leadership for losing the House.

It would be nice to think that in that new Washington, Trump would get kinder and gentler to try to coax Democrats into supporting him. But that’s not who he is. The next two years will be all about him positioning himself for his re-election attempt  in 2020 – and  that means the next two years will not be pretty.

Oh, and after tomorrow, the special counsel, who has retreated as is tradition before elections, returns to the news. New indictments are likely.

So we have a block on legislation, the President will continue to lie and take credit for the good and distance himself from the bad, and the special counsel returns to the news.

You may say, “so what changes?” The Democrats being in charge of the House is a huge change. They can legitimately block, when they choose, the President’s initiatives. Which will make his pointing to them as resistance to his ideas true for a change.

And did I mention the special counsel will return?

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    B. Jay Cooper

    B. Jay is a former deputy White House press secretary to Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He also headed the communications offices at the Republican National Committee, U.S. Department of Commerce, and Yale University. He is a former reporter and is the retired deputy managing director of APCO Worldwide's Washington, D.C., office.
    He is the father of three daughters and grandfather of five boys and one girl. He lives in Marion, Mass.

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