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The Unreal Convention

8/28/2020

Donald Trump accepted his party’s nomination for reelection last night and spoke for 70 minutes. I didn’t count, but I would bet he averaged a lie every minute or two.

I won’t list them all – actually I don't think there was a new lie in the bunch – but he rewrote his presidency to, at a minimum, give him credit for ending a pandemic that has killed 180,000 of his fellow citizens and still is killing more today.

The convention rewrote history by presenting Trump as empathetic, caring, a leader in the war for women to equal treatment in the workplace, the architect of the country’s greatest economy in history, a happy celebrant of swearing in immigrants, giving us the biggest tax cut of all time, fighting racism, a President who has “created millions of jobs” and more.

Each one of that list is a lie. He didn’t do any of them.

Yet that is the record he wants to run on. Honestly, if he had that record to run on, I’d probably vote for him.

He does not have that record. It was one more “reality” show that wasn’t real.

In fact, the only job he probably did create was “fact checker” which every major media outlet now has, thanks to him.

Did the convention work, giving him a bounce in the polls to begin to catch up to Joe Biden? If the polls are right that is. We'll see in a few days.

The speech was probably more informative for the issues he did not mention – racism, cops being too quick to shoot black men and too blind or trusting enough (I guess) to stop a white male teenager walking down the street brandishing the long rifle he’d just used to kill two people.

I must admit, I did not see his entire speech so maybe I missed those parts. And I won’t be reading a transcript because…why?

He spent lots of time (as did several of his STAFF people who spoke at the convention) talking about "Democrat cities" that are being managed badly thus they have protesters and looters roaming their street. He said if we elect Joe Biden, that will be everyday life, ignoring that this everyday life is occurring on his watch.

There is no doubt in my mind that the presidential race will tighten as we head to Nov. 3. Partly because Trump and his sycophants will continue trashing Biden with lies and partly because Biden is sure to make mistakes as he campaigns and talks more to reporters. That will allow Trump, 74, to brand Biden, 77, with being too old to govern.

The convention, overall, was produced well, considering they only had a few weeks to put it together. You have to wonder, though, if a central group of speechwriters wrote or edited the various remarks because the speakers, too, repeated many of Trump’s lies. I have to (want to) believe that not all those people are liars. But they lied from Monday through Thursday for Donald Trump.

The lying will get worse. It has to because without the lies, Trump would have to explain his inept response to the pandemic, his pushing away allies and cozying up to dictators and more his record of appointing people who don't know what they're doing to jobs they don't know how to do.

As for his hand in creating a good economy pre-pandemic, he was handed off a good economy from Barack Obama and he didn’t muck it up. He did cut regulations, many of them created to protect Americans and some that were a legitimate obstacle to business. We probably won’t know the full story of how regulations, eliminated or rewritten, really have affected our lives. But those cuts did contribute to a positive economy.

He keeps telling people they should love him because, well, just look at your 401k's and stocks! Except those people standing in long lines to get food don't have enough money to feed themselves -- clearly they don't have 401k's. But that kind of thinking fits right in with his daughter and White House advisor Ivanka's "Find Something New" philosophy, telling folks to find jobs that don't exist anymore under her dad.

We have the debates coming up and they truly will be interesting, especially to see the strategies each candidate uses. Will Trump continue to lie as he is fact-checked on the spot by Biden? Will Biden misspeak so Trump can point to how senile he is? Is Biden truly a closet socialist plotting with Bernie and AOC to change the country's very existence?

Expect to see from the Trump side any picture of Biden with his hands on a child so they can continue the lie that Biden is a child molester. Expect to see photos used by Trump that will catch Biden in a moment of confusion (probably from some legitimately confusing act) to demonstrate that he has lost it.

For those us who are not supporting Trump, it will be cringe worthy as is every appearance by the President and it will be edge of seat as we watch to see if Biden can handle him or not.

The most important takeaway from this is – VOTE!

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Ordinary people

8/25/2020

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When the Republicans said they would be featuring “average” people during their convention, last night was not what I pictured.

In one (videotaped?) segment, we saw the President standing in the middle of about six “average” folks. Why they were standing, I don’t know. Sitting would seem to be more intimate. And why the President didn’t ask them their names, I don’t know either.

In any event, I know everyone doesn’t dislike Trump, but these were front-line workers, nurses, postal workers. A doctor appeared and said that the President was fabulous because he provided the health caregivers with the equipment and protective equipment they need.

The President says he had to step in because the governors weren’t doing their jobs. (I think he must mean only the Democratic governors since he clearly believes there is a difference between “Democrat-led” and “Republican-led” states.)

But I seem to recall governors from both parties begging the federal government to step in to secure personal protective equipment and ventilators and I seem to recall the President at the time saying the federal government “is not a shipping clerk.” Or words to that effect. Actually those were the exact words he used.

You have to be a true-blue Trump person to believe these “average” folks. But there they were. Why shouldn’t they be believed? I don’t know, but something tells me there was something fishy going on. Why didn’t he ask them their names or where they were from? They certainly looked like the person next door. I know, I’m sounding like a conspiracy theorist … but ya gotta wonder.

I don’t wonder about the “average” couple that pointed guns at peaceful protestors in front of their home, though. The peaceful protestors were doing nothing but…protesting peacefully. They were on their way to the mayor’s house down the street and this man and his wife pointed guns at them, saying they had to protect their property.

No one was threatening their property. So it came as no surprise that they spoke at the Republican Convention to point out erroneously that the Democrats will take your guns and MS13 will be moving in next door if you elect Joe Biden.

I read that the rabbi of the synagogue that abuts the couple’s property called the couple “bullies.” Among their offenses, she said, they destroyed bee hives children of the synagogue had and the hives were on the couple’s property by six feet. They didn’t call the rabbi first, they just destroyed the hives.

No one at the convention mentioned anything about how the Administration struggled to get their hands around the coronavirus. But I didn’t expect that – this indeed was convention to nominate Donald J. Trump to a second term.

I get that Republican political figures are supportive of Trump. I mean, I don’t really get it but I do understand it. Going against him means likely losing your job. It would be heartening to know, I know, that some elected or appointed official would be willing to give up his or her job because the President is a clear and present danger, but I get why they swallow that and support him. I just don't agree or like it.

Like Nikki Haley who wants to run for President. Or Sen. Tim Scott of North Carolina, who has opposed the President on occasion. But there he was speaking in support at the convention.

I must admit, I did not watch the “prime time” hour of the convention. (Prime time at 10 o’clock is pretty much past bed time for me.) I was going to watch it but I was watching the first part of the convention which was broadcast on CSPAN. The last speaker of that segment was Kimberly Guilfoyle. I mean SHOUTER. She was SHOUTING as many people do when they speak at political conventions with thousands of the faithful cheering so much you almost have to yell. But she was speaking to an empty hall. The SHOUTING was…well, I don’t know how to describe it. Off-putting to say the least.

Then again I'm told her boyfriend, Donald J. Trump Jr., followed her and it made him sound reasonable.

I’m a political junkie, well not a junkie but I follow it pretty closely. I’ve been to several GOP conventions both as staff, as an "official observer" and as a consultant who led a client around the convention to introduce him to folks. (It was The Rock of WWE fame. WWE was a client of mine when I was a dreaded Washington consultant.)

I must admit, though, that I really couldn’t watch last night’s installment, never knowing when the President might pop in awkwardly “interviewing” the common man and woman. I seem to recall also, it was just last week, the President ragging on the Democrats who mostly had videotaped segments and they weren’t live. A lot of taped presentations last night though.

I think, too, that, so far, the pandemic version of conventions was far better produced by the Democrats last week. Just sayin’. That isn’t a partisan statement, it’s a professional opinion on the product of each convention.

I will try to watch again tonight. I am curious about how Trump makes his nightly appearances, breaking a long tradition of both parties of how the nominee stays out of the limelight until he’s nominated (which he was yesterday) and when he or she speaks to end the convention.

Melania Trump, the first lady, speaks tonight and I read that convention planners and Trump’s campaign are hoping she will come across well to female suburban voters, where the President faces a deficit. I guess because she’s a woman they think that. I’m not a suburban woman but I fail to see how a former model, married to an (alleged) multi-billionaire and carrying and wearing very expensive designer products is relatable to that woman.

Then again, what is a suburban female? It used to mean white women of a certain level of success. But the suburbs (or how pollsters define suburbs) have changed. The 2010 census found that roughly equal shares of suburban and city dwellers in the U.S.'s 50 biggest metro areas had college degrees or higher. Also, today, 35 percent of suburb dwellers are minorities.

There is a pandemic, and while, as the President likes to point out, Wall Street is booming, at the moment, and he’s “created” millions of jobs in the last couple of months (rather than admitting that these are jobs that reappeared after state economies slowly opened up. That is not what “creating a job” means.) Wall Street is not an economic indicator. Ask any economist. It rises when it should fall and falls when it should rise. There is little rhyme or reason.

But then, conventions, for all political parties, are fantasy land.

Wait a minute, isn’t this presidency a fantasy land based on a reality show?

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Who's rigging what?

8/16/2020

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President Donald J. Trump swore an oath which says in part that he swears he: “…will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

Donald Trump, who has lied more than 20,000 times as President according to fact checkers, must read that phrase “to the best of my ability” to give him leeway as to how he preserves, protects, defends the Constitution. After all, he truly may be doing the job to the best of his (limited) abilities.

His latest lie/tactic is to say he won’t agree to a boost in funding for the Postal Service and then says that without that money the post office won’t be able to deliver absentee and mail-in ballots for the Nov. 3 elections until, possibly, months later.

Because, he claims without facts to back him up, that the country’s secretaries of the state, for the most part have inadequate procedures in place to handle the extra millions of mail-in ballots that will occur this year because of the coronavirus. Trump has said, though that Florida can handle it well. The President now votes in Florida where he has a sycophant Republican governor.

And with that, he will claim, if he loses in November or whenever, that the election was rigged against him. We know this because he said it last week. Out loud. In front of a camera taping him. Polls show more Democrats are likely to mail-in their votes than Republicans. You do the math.

Let’s pass over for the moment his failures in office. Let’s just focus on the postal service:

This man who swore an oath and claims to be the “best president ever,” clearly is afraid to stand for reelection so the voters can give him a passing or failing grade.

This coward who, I’ll say again, repeatedly tells us he is the bestest of the best presidents, is afraid to stand for a fair election so the voters can reinforce his love for himself. Or not.

This buffoon who has given our allies the finger and our enemies a free pass even when they kill Americans or put bounties on our military's heads is afraid to let the people prove him right. Or wrong.

This narcissistic grifter who says he has done the best job in the world battling the coronavirus, who boasts about the best testing anywhere, who says it’s the “China Virus” as if China came here and infected 6 million (so far) Americans and killed 160,000 (so far) now wants you to walk into a voting facility, stand in line with others, some of whom refuse to wear a mask because they think, as the President has told them, that the virus is a “Democratic hoax” and expose yourself and others to a possible death sentence in order to cast your Constitutionally guaranteed vote.

He is a walking, double-talking, lying conman who thinks only of himself (he’ll be voting absentee by the way).

Meantime, not only will ballots possibly be delayed or not counted depending on how states plan to handle the dilemma, the slowed down Post Office, through no fault of your mail carrier, also will be forcing a slow down in delivery of prescriptions to millions of Americans, primarily veterans and the elderly. Constituencies he thinks he can win.

Are he and his postmaster general intentionally taking actions that will make delivering the mail on time impossible? He says no, that Louis DeJoy, is a “smart man” but he (Trump), of course, has no idea what he’s doing over there at the Postal Service. Add that to his more than 20,000 documented lies since he’s been President. Remember when Trump told you he didn’t know if his personal attorney paid off a stripper who Trump “allegedly” had an affair with?

He’s not looking out for you or me or our vote or our Constitutional rights.

To my friends who support President Trump because he appoints conservative judges, claims to be a right to lifer, tells police they needn't "be gentle” with accused in their custody, who supports cops who push an elderly veteran to the sidewalk because he’s protesting the murder by police of a man in custody of the police, who cages kids because their parents tried to give them a better, safer life, who names appointees who have no experience for their jobs. To those friends I say: it is your right to support him.

But he or you have no right to take anyone else's vote away from them. None.

Now the White House is possibly sending signals that this whole episode may be a negotiating tactic by the President to get Democrats back to the negotiating table and so that he can agree to post office money so that he can get things he wants into the coronavirus assistance bill – like a tax cut "for the workers," a delay in collecting the payroll tax and other things that make no sense in the current economy. People need cash. In hand.

They don’t have accountants and lawyers like the President who have the luxury of time to find loopholes or cheat on their taxes. They need cash. Now. Their rent is past due. They can't buy food to feed their families.

But who knows what this President is doing or what’s on his mind. I heard his chief of staff on CNN say the President will sign a standalone Postal Service bill. He claims the Democrats won’t do a standalone bill.

What happened to the greatest negotiator in the history of mankind? Yeah, you know, the one who hasn’t attended a negotiating session yet. Why can't that guy get this logjam in the Congress resolved? I thought only he could fix it.

Don’t count on anything anyone in this Administration says is true. None of them.

There is a workaround, though, to get your ballot counted that is making its way around the Internet. Here it is:

Request a mail-in ballot.
Do not mail it.
Google your supervisor of elections to see where you can drop off your mail-in ballot. It’s usually not the polling place. And it’s not a mail box. It’s a box only for election ballots. All states allow this!

Here is what you're accomplishing by doing this:

You're not relying on the postal service to get your ballot in on time, so no matter what, your ballot gets in on time.
You don't have to worry about standing in long lines and risking infection. You're just stopping by to drop it off. Often, you can drive up to the box and never leave your car to deposit your ballot.

Also, when you drop it off find out how if you can track it online to make sure it is verified. California, Oregon, Washington Colorado have systems that can track your ballot just like tracking a package from Amazon.

As Trump likes to say, "believe me," that's how I'm delivering my ballot this year. But I mean the "believe me" part. He doesn't.

The President is claiming the election is “rigged.” And he ought to know. He’s the one trying to rig it.

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The comparison is stark. That's the point.

8/12/2020

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Trump/Pence vs. Biden/Harris.

What do you think? I imagine most folks who are not planning to vote for President Trump are quite happy with the former vice president’s choice of a running mate.

California Sen. Kamala Harris is smart. Tested. Tough. Can be fun, soft and genuine in an interview, showing her true personality.

Biden proved, if he had to, that he can overlook a tough shot taken at him in a debate by his selection and still do the right thing and “bring folks together.” It’s a great comparison with Trump who famously holds grudges, seemingly forever or until his grudge target gets on his knees and pledges fealty.

And, most importantly, Sen. Kamala Harris is experienced enough to take over the Oval Office in an emergency.

So, Biden accomplished the primary goal in choosing a running mate: Do no harm.
In fact, she does some good for him.

Harris has all the qualities a presidential candidate seeks in a vice president. And, so far, she’s getting fantastic press and reactions to Biden’s choice. Her selection likely will dominate the news through the Sunday shows.

Unless Trump has something up his sleeve to distract from her. Toying with the idea of talking to Putin about his (untested) coronavirus vaccine and possibly bringing it here?
That would dominate the media for sure.

Meantime, let’s get on with the show.

Because, folks, Sen. Harris did no harm and did Biden some good but the fact is this election is Biden v. Trump. We can all anticipate with glee the vice presidential debate but, the fact is, unless Pence or Harris mess up royally, that debate matters not much.

Sen. Harris was, among the options Biden laid out for himself, the best and safest choice. In the old days, a vice presidential selection was as much about helping to win a state in the Electoral College. But there is at least one generation of voters who have never seen a veep candidate chosen, successfully anyway, to deliver a particular state.

There’s little doubt Biden can carry Harris' home state of California with or without her. And remember, I said safest among the candidates he interviewed. The first African American/Indian woman on a national ticket is no easy choice. Biden clearly though was going to select a woman and likely a woman of color.

This choice, though, was as much about turnout. Sen. Harris will likely draw more voters to the Democratic ticket especially among women (especially the all-important suburban women) and among African-American and Indian-American voters. This is good for Biden because there has been question about what his pull will be especially with young, progressive voters and young African-American voters.

And Biden, by virtue of his being the oldest person ever elected president if he wins, and because of important issues happening right now (race relations, police brutality, and more) is reshaping the party, especially if he wins. Others on his potential veep list for the most part will be exceptional choices for his staff and government if he wins. Imagine Susan Rice or Sen. Warren as chief of staff. Or Rice as secretary of state and Warren in the financial area somewhere (Treasury?). Imagine Mayor Pete being named to the Cabinet (Health and Human Services? Housing?).

You can see how a Biden Cabinet would look much more like America than the current Cabinet, or any before it, in fact.

President Trump and his political advisors, while not surprised by the Harris choice, do have some thinking to do beyond their first, amateurish ad after the Harris choice. Nicknames like Slow Joe and Phony Kamala won’t win any more votes than he already has with his “base.”

I imagine the Biden campaign will use Trump’s nicknaming his enemies for ridicule as one more way they will contrast Biden with the childish Trump tactic. So, Sleepy Joe and Phony Kamala away, Mr. President, this time It will backfire.

Will Trump dump Pence to find a running mate that tries to match Harris (Nikki Haley?). Trump certainly is craven enough but Mike Pence has been so loyal to him – a lap dog as was labeled a former Republican vice president – I don’t see how he gets away with it except, of course, with his “base” although I can imagine the evangelical bloc not being happy about changing out the devout Pence. And some of those voters already have been peeling off Trump. Can he afford to lose any more?

This will be, if it isn’t already, the dirtiest campaign we’ve ever seen.

Already Trump has tweeted that the “’suburban housewife’ will be voting for me. They want safety & are thrilled that I ended the long running program where low income housing would invade their neighborhood. Biden would reinstall it, in a bigger form, with Corey Booker in charge!”

You might wonder why Trump chose Sen. Cory (correct spelling) Booker to symbolize this program and reinforce his not really subliminal message that “low income housing” is a not-so code for “brown people.” Booker not only is African-American, he has lived in low-income housing.

Trump is making no secret of his plan to make race an issue in this campaign as he did his first.

Biden’s campaign is clearly setting up the comparison with Trump both on his crass tactics and his fumbling, failing leadership.

And Biden/Harris may be the perfect ticket to take that on.

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Where the election (might) stand

8/5/2020

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If you try to analyze the Electoral College numbers to see where the presidential race stands, well, you could go blind. I tried. Here’s what I learned.

I reviewed a state-by-state poll review by The New York Times this week. The Times used at least two state polls from each state. Some were more than a week or two old. But, if you take those polls as they existed and averaged them, Vice President Joe Biden wins the Electoral College with 373 votes. That, though, includes states where the compilations show him with large leads (for example New York where he registers 57 percent of the vote) to states where he has tiny leads (for example North Carolina where he leads by a single point).

If you subtract out the close states (Texas, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Nevada), Biden’s electoral count drops but still wins at 279 votes (270 are needed).

If you just subtract the three close states President Trump won four years ago, those states credited him with winning the election for him (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) and assume Trump wins then again, Biden still wins with 333 electoral votes.

As you can see, you can go blind. And, in any event, those polls were good for when they were taken. Which means they matter not.

We read and hear lots of analysis from the pundits and alleged experts, most of them claiming Biden is way ahead.

Allan Lichtman, a professor who is perfect in his predictions of the presidential election for 40 years (yes, including Trump’s win in 2016 and predicting his eventual impeachment), also is predicting Biden wins based on Lichtman’s 13 keys to a presidential election.

The bottom line is, who knows? Well, except maybe for Lichtman based on his track record.

Trump seems to be running with basically the same strategy he used four years ago: divide and conquer. Many people look at the Trump strategy and try to figure out how he can win since he’s done nothing to expand his base and most everything to decrease the voters who were attracted to him four years ago, at least those who aren’t really his true-blue base but voted for hm.

Every day we watch Trump do things like embrace the Confederate flag; offer good wishes to a friend accused of serving up underage girls to Jeffrey Epstein while refusing to say positive things about the racial justice icon, recently deceased John Lewis; clear Lafayette Park of protestors so he could pose with an upside down Bible in front of the “church of presidents;” continuously praise his administration's work on the coronavirus as the best in the world, etc. etc. Why? I assume because he knows his best path to victory in November is to repeat his successes of 2016, which means getting his base out to vote.

Don’t say it can’t work, because it did four years ago.

Personally, based on his behavior in office and his mishandling of the coronavirus, I think he’s pushed away enough of those “swing voters” he attracted four years ago to make a difference. Older voters aren’t happy largely because they are the most directly affected by the virus. Trump’s definition of who make up populations in the suburbs feels outdated so his solicitation for votes there seems misdirected.

But, remember, there is another candidate who so far has done basically nothing to achieve his front-runner status. Joe Biden is a good guy – that’s his image and it’s his image because he is a nice guy, he earned that reputation. Most everyone who’s ever met or dealt with him will tell you that. If anyone is the anti-Trump, it is Joe Biden.

But is it enough to be the guy running against Trump to actually win? Probably not so Joe will need to continue unveiling policies, announcing what he would do in addition to talking about what he would un-do if he defeats Trump.

While the election is “only” 90 days away, it is 90 days away. There’s plenty of time for turns and twists both from Trump (guaranteed) and Biden (pretty much guaranteed too based on his patterns over his career).

Next big public decision for Biden is to pick his running mate – who he assured the country will be a woman.

There are pluses and minuses for each of the women rumored to be on his final list. I subscribe to the theory that he needs to choose the woman who, if necessary (and because of Biden’s age it is a big consideration), can truly take over if she has to because of incapacitation to Biden. Who is the woman who can be empathetic, lead the country out of the disappointment of a President they elected who can’t finish his term and be the calm, decisive President needed in such times (Gerald Ford anyone?).

Those are my two cents which tomorrow will be worth less than two cents.

Much as those polls I cited above.

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The Unreal Convention

Ordinary people

Who's rigging what?

The comparison is stark. That's the point.

Where the election (might) stand

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