“They” say that tomorrow’s South Carolina GOP primary will winnow the field to three candidates and conventional wisdom is that those will be: Trump, Rubio and Cruz.

I’m going against conventional wisdom. I don’t think it’ll winnow to three. I think South Carolina will change the race. This is one strange year (to put it mildly). Trump has criticized war heroes, women, a disabled reporter, Mexican immigrants, all Muslims and even the Pope. Nothing seems to stop him.

He really hasn’t increased his base vote, though. He seems to have a ceiling. Problem has been there have been too many other candidates in the race to stop him from placing or winning in the first two states. South Carolina lately has been the state that puts reason back into the race. Trump should win, based on the polls. I’m going to stick with my already-proven-wrong theory that he won’t win a primary or caucus and say he will lose in South Carolina (I know, unlikely, but hey…why the heck not. I’m not getting paid to do this). I’ll say, let’s see, ummmm…Rubio wins, Trump second. I think after the first two, it will be close among Cruz, Bush and Kasich.

Rubio has the endorsements of the popular governor, Nikki Haley. and the Republican U.S. Senator, Tim Scott. By the way, that photo opp of the three – Rubio, a Cuban-American; Haley, an Indian-American, and Scott, an Afro-American – who’d a thought a photo of three Republicans – a governor, a U.S. Senator, and a leading presidential candidate – would be of three with those ethnic backgrounds? Let’s check the other side for such representation this year.

The polls out so far in South Carolina all were taken before Trump criticized George W for lying on Iraq (something Trump denied he did on CNN last night) and before his dust-up with the Pope. In the polls, Trump leads but others are in rough striking distance. W. is very popular in South Carolina. The Pope flare-up seems to be playing all right for Trump so far. Even his opponents backed off criticizing him which tells you politically they've judged there's not much upside in attacking Trump on it.

A few other thoughts:

Jeb looks like a more serious candidate since he lost his glasses. I know that’s a superficial statement but it’s true. In last night’s CNN town meeting, Bush’s normally gawky shrugs didn’t look so goofy. And it allowed you to listen to what he said more. And when you hear Jeb you realize he’s one smart guy and deserving of consideration for president, despite his last name not because of it.

CNN’s town meetings have been great. Each candidate is on for three-quarters of an hour or so alone with Anderson Cooper and the audience. They get to give substantive answers (a plus for Bush and Kasich) and show their personalities without battling for 15 seconds of time for a sound bite against a skilled scene-stealer.

Kasich is a very real and decent guy. That moment with the young fellow who lost his “second” dad, saw his parents divorce shortly after and then watched his dad lose his job – well, it was a very real moment that saw Kasich lean in and hug the man, talking (without the microphone near enough to pick up what he said). Touching and real. Quite the opposite of what we see from the front-runner.

The Democrats are not in South Carolina this week but are in Nevada, a state Hillary was supposed to win easily but has become a contest. Still, she is far ahead in super delegates, meaning Bernie pretty much not only has to win primaries but win them big to catch up. Rules established to help Hillary? Maybe but they are the rules that Bernie (who by the way is an Independent, not a Democrat) agreed to play by.

So, what happens this weekend? Hillary by a nose in Nevada; Rubio surprises in South Carolina and Jeb is reborn (as I said, what the hell, why not?) to fight another day.

Just hours left until voting starts in New Hampshire and this is the time a big chunk of voters there are making up their minds, changing their minds or still noodling on not only who to vote for, but whose party’s primary to participate in.

That why New Hampshire is so hard to predict – it’s known for folks making up their minds in the last hours and because you can choose, including Independent voters, which party’s primary to participate in when you walk into the polling precinct. Last -inute polls won’t do any good either because voters there change their minds late and because Super Bowl weekend is not the best time to do a phone poll.

Saturday night’s GOP debate resolved one thing – Marco Rubio isn’t ready for prime time. Chris Christie put on his prosecutor’s suit and destroyed the young senator. Matter of fact, I looked up “talking points” in the dictionary and there was a picture of Rubio. (By the way, someone should remind him that his talking point also is a bit off. If he wins the nomination, he won’t be running against Obama in November, it’ll either be Hillary or Sanders.)

The experts say Trump did just fine but I don’t agree. That thing about bringing back waterboarding
“and worse” can’t help in a primary in New Hampshire (or a general in November). And his “shush” moment with Bush was a bad thing too – even if the audience was full of donors who don’t like him. It didn’t look good on TV. Also, his decision not to campaign in the traditional on-the-ground way customary in New Hampshire was a bad move, though he did hit the ground the last couple of days. And, his calling off an event because of a couple of inches of snow and going home to his elegant apartment in New York can’t play well with the natives. His moment of being the weird uncle at holiday dinner is wearing thin.

Christie helped others more than himself with his Rubio offensive which meant Kasich and Bush didn’t have to go as hard after Rubio. Plus, Bush had his best debate and Kasich was his normally solid self. Carson is still a nice guy and still a bad candidate.

So, what’s gonna happen? Well, if the polls and pundits are to be listened to Trump, will win on the GOP side and Bernie will blow out Hillary on the other side. I’m going to stick to my belief, though, that Trump can’t win a primary or caucus and say he will finish at best second and maybe even third. I’m going to predict (guess) that Kasich wins the primary but in a close vote with either Trump second or Bush. Rubio falls to fourth, Cruz fifth (there are more evangelical voters in New Hampshire than you think ) and the others will be dropping out soon enough.

On the other side, I’m guessing Sanders wins because New Hampshire is a neighborly place but I don’t think he wins by the margins in the polls, more like a 9 point win. And, not to burst the bubble of my friends who are quite strongly supporting Bernie, but I believe he is more, as the Washington Post said in a story the other day, “cunning” than the grandfatherly, curmudgeonly image he puts out. I’m no fan of Mrs. Clinton’s but I also do not think she was making any wink-wink deals behind closed doors while giving those overpriced speeches to Wall Streeters. She’s way too smart for that. Cunning, one might say.

                Iowa is history (and a little historic) and it’s on to New Hampshire, now that we’ve had a small dose of the reality of voters voting and not pollsters polling.

                The bloom is off the Trump rose. The Bern is being felt. Rubio and his high-heeled boots are on the rise. Let’s take a closer look.

                On the Republican side voters who made up their minds at the last minute broke to Cruz and Rubio. Trump was closer to third than first. For Cruz Iowa may be his best state, and he didn’t steamroll a win but he clearly out-organized for the victory. He won’t wear as well in coming states. Trump’s finish shows that celebrity isn’t candidacy and Rubio showed that some really hard but last-minute work paid off.

                On the Democratic side, not to toss cold water on my Bernie-supporting friends, but while he clearly had a closer than expected finish, Iowa is a state tailor-made for a Sanders candidacy – mostly white and very liberal. And he earned a virtual tie. While that clearly will help on the momentum front at the moment, it hurts in two ways: one, he probably should have won with the demographics in Iowa  so it doesn’t bode well for other states and, two, a loss always makes Mrs. Clinton a better campaigner.

                So what happens in New Hampshire? Sanders clearly now needs to back up his polling in the Granite State with a big win or he will be judged to have missed expectations. Hillary becomes the underdog and while she lacks the campaign skills of her husband, she does get better under pressure (Doubt that? Go watch the Benghazi hearing). Sanders still has to show, after New Hampshire, that he can appeal to a more diverse electorate and figure out how to balance his record on gun control and his inexperience in foreign policy.  

                The GOP side is more interesting. Cruz is not a New Hampshire candidate. Too right wing and wearing religion on your sleeve isn’t as big a plus there as in Iowa. Trump, before the Iowa results, was leading New Hampshire by a lot – but Iowa will have an effect on those numbers. Rubio is more of a New Hampshire candidate but, in the wings, so are governors Kasich, Christie and Bush. And each of them is working hard at the traditional New Hampshire process of town meetings and house parties.  Kasich has been garnering newspaper endorsements. Bush is better one on one than he is giving a speech or on a debate stage, and that’s key in New Hampshire. It’s also under the radar now because the media hasn’t been covering Bush as closely so any gains there (and my guess is there are some) aren’t being as well noticed.

                Time, of course, will tell. If Rubio should outdistance everyone, clearly he will be the big favorite among establishment types. Personally, he’s not my cup of tea. A bit too practiced for me and, even for a politician, will always tell you what you want to hear. Not unlike Cruz. Trump has had his effects on the race – anger, direct talk (I didn’t say honest, I said direct), frustration with Washington. Other candidates are picking up on that and when all is said and done, voters want someone they can trust as President not someone who talks a good game with no substance behind it.

                So Iowa has put reality back on the table…and the beat will go on.

The Iowa caucuses are tonight and everyone expects predictions. I’ll give it a go, but it is difficult when you’re not on the ground and feeling the environment.

I have a friend who’s in Iowa leading some student journalists to cover the voting and she said the other day that they went to Cruz’ headquarters and the “door was open…and lots of people were inside partying.” And someone welcomed them in. Over at Trump headquarters she said the door was locked and they weren’t allowed in. Not sure what that means exactly, but it tells one story.

Based on polls, weather, and what I’m reading out of Iowa here goes:

On the Democrat side I think Hillary wins but Bernie is relatively close, thus the story line doesn’t change heading into New Hampshire, where Sanders has a substantial lead. I think it’s organization that wins in Iowa. Bernie draws a lot of young voters, not known for coming to vote or to caucus and in the byzantine ways of Iowa caucuses, where you get people to attend matters more than how many attend. His campaign has been advertising on college campuses, where he is strong, that students should go home to vote – because his campaign knows they will vote for him. College kids, though, have lots to do besides drive a few hours home on a Monday and get back to classes for Tuesday. While Sanders clearly is leading some kind of movement, I don't think the students will move home for the night to vote.  Sanders should, though, have a respectable showing and remain in it, and after he wins New Hampshire, we’ll see as the campaign heads south if he can do as well in more diverse states.

On the Republican side, I think Cruz wins, Trump is second and maybe even will finish third with Rubio either third or second. I don’t buy that Trump’s supporters will come to the caucuses. It’s supposed to snow and many of his troops have never caucused before. I think his big crowds are a large percentage drawn by his celebrity, not his candidacy. Folks want to see the show and maybe buy a hat. Cruz is said to have one of the best organizations ever built in Iowa, and that’s saying a lot. Even though his popularity is waning some now, the organization takes him over the top.

Cruz would get a boost out of Iowa but he isn’t the typical candidate to win in New Hampshire. Not so many religious voters in New Hampshire -- just ask Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee, both of whom won the Iowa caucus. Trump’s been leading there but an Iowa second or third place finish will take some of the luster off the shine. Kasich, especially bolstered by some good newspaper endorsements, and Bush, buoyed by a stronger than he’s had debate and good-on-the ground-in-New Hampshire work, will do better than folks expect them to do. Thus, the field will start to winnow. Kasich and/or Bush should start to gain some traction heading into states where far less polling has been done and the voters are more diverse, which means fewer votes for Cruz and, likely, Trump.

Trump’s no-show for the last debate hasn’t hurt him a lot but a loss in Iowa will start to reinforce why he is an amateur at politics, inexperienced at governing though a star at betting publicity.

So, I’m not believing the polls. I’m not ever going to believe that the GOP can nominate a Trump or a Cruz. I’ve kind of believed the above throughout this campaign. Call it denial or being an optimist (not something I’ve often been accused of) but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.