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The Screaming Moderate

Bulletin  Bulletin Bulletin

2/26/2016

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New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie a little while ago endorsed Donald Trump. Let me repeat that, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie a little while ago endorsed Donald Trump.

This is not a joke. It’s not an Onion piece. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie a little while ago endorsed Donald Trump.

The first word that came to mind was in the range of language the  president of Mexico uttered the other day about Donald Trump’s bridge and Mexico paying for it. The second thing that came to mind was, what’s he getting? A friend of mine already posted that he’ll get secretary of transportation, in charge of bridges.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie a little while ago endorsed Donald Trump. That repeat was for my benefit because I find it hard to believe a reasonable person who holds a serious office endorsed Donald Trump, a few minutes ago. I know, I know…a couple of congressmen endorsed Trump the other day. I didn’t pay them much attention because one I never heard of and the other, well, I never heard of him either but I did hear of his dad.

If I lived in New Jersey I’d demand the lieutenant governor take over because the governor clearly is out of his mind. Early reports are one reason Christie did this was payback to Marco Rubio who Christie blames for stopping his momentum in New Hampshire. Gov. Christie, there is no good reason to endorse Donald Trump.

Wait a minute…did I hear this right, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie a little while ago endorsed Donald Trump? Let me go back to sleep because that had to be a nightmare. Like this whole election season.


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Finally, a "debate"

2/26/2016

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Finally the Nerds took on The Bully and they didn’t take him out but maybe made a case for themselves rather than looking like bystanders on Donald Trump’s march to the Republican nomination for president. Some thoughts about last night:

Who won? Well, that’s difficult to assess and depends on your definition of winning. I don’t think Trump lost any support last night because his 30-40 percent of the GOP primary vote loves him for being the jerk that he is. He dumbs down policy, he dumbs down politics and he “loves the uneducated.” The question is did Rubio or Cruz find any voters to up their votes in the coming primaries. And, if they did, is it sufficient to win?

Hypocrisy. For decades I’ve believed that nothing is more hurtful to a candidate than being shown to be a hypocrite. Politicians can get a pass for changing positions or promising one thing but doing another. But when a candidate’s own words can be used to show he’s a phony at the moment, that’s different. For example, Trump blasting immigrants taking jobs away from Americans and then it being shown that he hired immigrants over Americans repeatedly in Florida by HUGE numbers. Or his claiming he only “wins” when his Trump University failed, his Trump Vodka failed and other Trump-branded products also failed. That makes him, as he says of his competitors, a liar.

Trumped. Pressed on how he would balance the budget Trump pulled out old saws: eliminate EPA (less than $10 billion); eliminate the Department of Education (less than $70 billon, some of which goes to help kids pay for education); the tried and untrue “fraud, waste and abuse” which, if you could find it all, doesn’t amount to much. The current deficit is about $600 billion in a year.

Line of the night: Dr. Ben Carson, who can’t get a word in because he apparently is too polite, said, “Can someone attack me, please,” because then the moderators give you time to respond then.

Moderate moderators: I thought CNN did a terrible job moderating the debate. The participants were allowed to talk over, yell and ignore Wolf and others. It resembled 8th graders fighting over the basketball not men who would be president. Wolf just isn’t good at this. And if Wolf can’t control it, then I’m in favor of turning off the mikes when they go over their allotted time or start arguing and don’t respond when the moderators says stop. Grow up.

Audits. Mr. Trump now says he can’t release his tax returns because he’s being audited. Yes, he can. A taxpayer is free to do whatever he wants with his tax returns. Another delaying tactic from Mr. I’m Not a Politician. Release them! If the audit finds something, the returns will be worse for you, so why not get them out now? Plus, my guess is the same as Mitt Romeny’s, that there is something in there he doesn’t want seen – like his income isn’t what he portrays or he doesn’t contribute to the veterans as he claims. And that he’s used every (legal) loophole in the book to reduce his taxes, like any other hypocrite.

What was accomplished last night? I don’t get the feeling the race changed much. Again, taking votes away from Trump isn’t going to happen. It’s can you get votes from the others. And I’m guessing as long as Cruz is in, Rubio can’t get pick up too many – Carson and Kasich don’t have many to begin with. And, I worry that when Cruz does get out, a chunk of his may go to Trump. The other thing accomplished was that Hillary can learn what lines of attack work against Trump. Clearly, he doesn’t like getting as good as he gives. And Hillary can give .

(F) Bombs Away!: Vincente Fox clearly told it as he sees it with his dropping the “F bomb”. Speaking of that, the Washington Post today ran the full F-word in news story on the front page, choosing apparently not to censor it as usual with the “F---“. A paragraph or so later It quoted Fox but blanked out the letters in the word “f---ing.” Editing mistake? A bad one for one of the country’s leading newspapers.

Trumped, again. Trump claims that because Mexico has a $58 billion trade surplus it can afford to pay for his stupid wall, blockading the U.S. from our neighbor to the south. Donald, a lesson on trade balances: the profit does not accrue to the country’s benefit nor the other country’s loss. The money doesn’t go to or from the government.  Just shows that we consumers make the choice to buy more from them. Which is another issue, not the one you cite. This may be why the “uneducated” love you.

Hispanics love me. By the way, no, they don’t. A survey by Univison shows that eight in10 Hispanics have an unfavorable opinion of you. Apparently, 46 percent of GOP primary voters who identify as Hispanics liked you in South Carolina and, if those polls are correct all I can say is OMG!

Michael Gerson. A former “43” speechwriter who has become a pretty good columnist writes this morning about Trump, “And it feels like we have, so far, explored only the fringes of his ignorance.” Truer words were never spoken.


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My waning days as a Republican

2/23/2016

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I sent in my absentee ballot for next week’s Massachusetts primary yesterday. I waited until after the South Carolina primary because my first choice was Jeb Bush but I wanted to be sure he’d still be on the ballot for Massachusetts. Well, he is on the ballot but no longer in the race.

So, I cast my ballot for John Kasich – not that I think he has a snowball’s chance of being the nominee but because, simply, he is the best remaining candidate who I confidently believe can sit in the Oval Office and do his best for the country, while worrying about not just some of the citizenry, but all of it. And he would represent us all well when dealing with leaders of other countries. He is a leader i could be proud of.

It may be my last GOP absentee ballot. Not that anyone in the party will care if I leave the GOP. The party has done a lot of things I disagree with over the more than three decade I’ve been a registered Republican. But if Donald Trump leads the ticket this year that will be my final straw. Honestly, it’s been hard enough defending my party affiliation as Republicans continued their rightward march and the party has become increasingly perceived as the party of no, not the party of Lincoln. Trump has won both primaries he’s competed in, placed second in the Iowa caucuses and is looking like a winner today in Nevada. If he is who the Republican voters want, so be it.

The GOP national chairman says, as I believe he has to, that if Trump is the nominee chosen by the party’s voters, he, the chairman, will support him. He may have to say that now but I would hope he would resign if Trump secures the nomination. If I were the chairman and Trump became the nominee I would resign my post. That’s why if Trump becomes the candidate, I have to resign from the party. No one else will care that I’m no longer on the party rolls, but I will. I cannot be a member of a part that has Donald Trump as its standard bearer.

I’m proud of the fact that I worked for Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. They were good men who every day tried to do their best for the right reasons. I didn’t always agree with them but I knew they had the best of intentions and a true love of the country, and a respect for the office they held.

Donald Trump does not meet those criteria. Far from it.  And I can’t remain in a party that he leads.


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The hope for winnowing is winnowing

2/22/2016

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Here goes: I’ve been wrong.

I never believed (still don’t or maybe better put can’t) that Donald Trump would be the Republican candidate for president. The facts are the facts though – he may be.

The stars have aligned: voters are angry with the way things are and Trump, who will say anything about anyone or anything and feel no qualms about it because he can say the opposite a minute later, channels that anger. The GOP field has stayed big for too long and his 30 to 35 percent of the GOP primary base has been more than sufficient to win New Hampshire and South Carolina. He attacked and attacked his previous biggest target – Jeb Bush – and Jeb now is gone. The remaining GOP candidates don’t have anywhere near Trump’s hooooge personality or mouth so who will take him down?

John Kasich is the best of the lot but it’s unlikely his positive campaigning will win the day. Marco Rubio is the new Establishment darling based on…well, based on the fact that he isn’t Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. And Rubio finds consolation in finishing second or third which he plays as a win.

Ted Cruz is a loud mouth who now proclaims he’s the best alternative because he’s actually beaten Trump! Reminder to Sen. Cruz: You won Iowa, not Texas or Florida or, even, South Carolina where you should have done better. Trump beat you in South Carolina among evangelicals, your base!!

So how does one take down Trump? Clearly nothing has worked so far. That’s partly because you can’t top his personality or his personal attacks which go something like this:

“Cooper’s a nice guy. I like him. There’s a guy I know who tells me Cooper is a communist, drunk, hypocritical shmuck. I don’t know if that’s true. All I did was retweet those things and say them on national TV programs. I don’t know if it’s true, and I hope it isn’t.”

Or how about saying he will eliminate the budget deficit  by getting rid of “fraud, waste and abuse” because, for example, he says there are “thousands and thousands of people that are over 106 years old” collecting Society Security! Realty check: A 2013 audit found that 1,546 people had received Society Security checks despite being dead. Total cost? $31 million. Cost of Security that year? $823 billion. You can’t reduce the deficit that way, Mr. Trump. Ask Ronald Reagan.

The other thing he does is lie: He said he was “the only person on this stage” against the Iraq war from pre-Day One, until a tape of an interview from those days came to light in which he said in his own voice that he supported the war; he says he can cut $300 billion a year in drug costs to Medicare because he knows how to negotiate better than anyone else but he failed to look up how much Medicare spends on drugs annually which is less than a third of $300 billion which means his presidency would result in the drug companies paying me to take their drugs (if he can do that, I’m all for it, by the way).

But I’ve seen no candidate take him on, on the substance. What if someone gives a speech that doesn’t attack Trump for being a loud-mouth-bully-racist but takes him on over the substantive facts of policy? Then, maybe, he’d have to talk substance or ideas or lay out that health care plan he promised a couple of months ago. Or show us his tax returns where, we have to assume, he’s used every loophole imaginable to pay the least he has to and we can focus on that instead of what he prefers, which is now much money he allegedly has. Or maybe point out that the “winning” he promises, “more winning than we can handle”, is a lie because he hasn’t always won (i.e., Trump football, Trump vodka, Trump University, etc. etc.).

We are experiencing our first real modern campaign. One that plays out on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and on cable news channels that play for ratings, not news (Sidebar: I was watching CNN the other night when Jeb was about to make his concession speech and suspend his campaign when Wolf delayed going to Jeb, the newsmaker, so that CNN’s Mark Preston, a reporter, could report Jeb was going to suspend his campaign. Thus CNN can market that it reported Jeb’s withdrawal before Jeb reported it.  HOOOOOGE ratings. They're no better than Donald in that regard.)

So, I’m still hoping Trump isn’t the candidate because that’s bad not just for the GOP but for the country. I always thought when the race winnowed to two candidates he could be beaten. Still do. Just not sure that winnowing will happen before he has a big delegate lead.


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Reborn in South Carolina, I Hope

2/19/2016

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“They” say that tomorrow’s South Carolina GOP primary will winnow the field to three candidates and conventional wisdom is that those will be: Trump, Rubio and Cruz.

I’m going against conventional wisdom. I don’t think it’ll winnow to three. I think South Carolina will change the race. This is one strange year (to put it mildly). Trump has criticized war heroes, women, a disabled reporter, Mexican immigrants, all Muslims and even the Pope. Nothing seems to stop him.

He really hasn’t increased his base vote, though. He seems to have a ceiling. Problem has been there have been too many other candidates in the race to stop him from placing or winning in the first two states. South Carolina lately has been the state that puts reason back into the race. Trump should win, based on the polls. I’m going to stick with my already-proven-wrong theory that he won’t win a primary or caucus and say he will lose in South Carolina (I know, unlikely, but hey…why the heck not. I’m not getting paid to do this). I’ll say, let’s see, ummmm…Rubio wins, Trump second. I think after the first two, it will be close among Cruz, Bush and Kasich.

Rubio has the endorsements of the popular governor, Nikki Haley. and the Republican U.S. Senator, Tim Scott. By the way, that photo opp of the three – Rubio, a Cuban-American; Haley, an Indian-American, and Scott, an Afro-American – who’d a thought a photo of three Republicans – a governor, a U.S. Senator, and a leading presidential candidate – would be of three with those ethnic backgrounds? Let’s check the other side for such representation this year.

The polls out so far in South Carolina all were taken before Trump criticized George W for lying on Iraq (something Trump denied he did on CNN last night) and before his dust-up with the Pope. In the polls, Trump leads but others are in rough striking distance. W. is very popular in South Carolina. The Pope flare-up seems to be playing all right for Trump so far. Even his opponents backed off criticizing him which tells you politically they've judged there's not much upside in attacking Trump on it.

A few other thoughts:

Jeb looks like a more serious candidate since he lost his glasses. I know that’s a superficial statement but it’s true. In last night’s CNN town meeting, Bush’s normally gawky shrugs didn’t look so goofy. And it allowed you to listen to what he said more. And when you hear Jeb you realize he’s one smart guy and deserving of consideration for president, despite his last name not because of it.

CNN’s town meetings have been great. Each candidate is on for three-quarters of an hour or so alone with Anderson Cooper and the audience. They get to give substantive answers (a plus for Bush and Kasich) and show their personalities without battling for 15 seconds of time for a sound bite against a skilled scene-stealer.

Kasich is a very real and decent guy. That moment with the young fellow who lost his “second” dad, saw his parents divorce shortly after and then watched his dad lose his job – well, it was a very real moment that saw Kasich lean in and hug the man, talking (without the microphone near enough to pick up what he said). Touching and real. Quite the opposite of what we see from the front-runner.

The Democrats are not in South Carolina this week but are in Nevada, a state Hillary was supposed to win easily but has become a contest. Still, she is far ahead in super delegates, meaning Bernie pretty much not only has to win primaries but win them big to catch up. Rules established to help Hillary? Maybe but they are the rules that Bernie (who by the way is an Independent, not a Democrat) agreed to play by.


So, what happens this weekend? Hillary by a nose in Nevada; Rubio surprises in South Carolina and Jeb is reborn (as I said, what the hell, why not?) to fight another day
.
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Let's watch as the GOP makes (another) dumb move

2/15/2016

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The passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia came as a shock. In the context of older judges on the court with him, Scalia was not expected to go first (helluva thing, guessing who’s gonna go first among a relatively old cohort). Whatever one thought of Scalia, he was brilliant and had a huge impact on the court and, thus, on society.

When you get his ideological opposites, like Ruth Bader Ginsburg, praising him and saying they were best friends, you know there was a substantive and collegial fellow there. A jurist who could disagree with you strongly, with merit, and, at the end of the day, share a nice glass of wine, the opera or a hunting trip with you. That’s collegiality.

And someone who, as former Obama staffer David Axelrod said, sent a message though Axelrod that Obama should appoint Elena Kagin, his polar opposite, to the court  when Obama had his first nomination opportunity – because he wanted a smart and challenging person on the court. Scalia had the confidence in his positions that he was right and wanted the best opposing him to make sure – and, if he was on the losing end of a case,  to strengthen his opposition’s arguments and make them prove they were right.

That, unfortunately, is not what is happening in the wake of his death. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell immediately after issuing his sorrow for Scalia’s death laid down a marker – no replacement will be confirmed this year. Presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz immediately took the position he takes best – no vote will be held. And if anyone knows how to stop the Senate’s business in its tracks it’s Sen. Cruz who shut down the government for no good reason a few years ago.

The GOP presidential candidates piled on at their debate Saturday night, almost to a man telling the President, don’t send a nomination up because it’s dead on arrival. They want the next election to settle it. I think that’s dumb on the law and dumber on the politics. The Constitution is clear, the President is to nominate a replacement to the Senate. If the Senate chooses to not take up that nomination, that’s on the Senate – dumb a move as that is.

Obama, unless he wants to play politics, needs to send up a confirmable name. And there appear to be plenty to choose from. Not a name that will vote as Scalia did (not that one can tell what a Supreme Court justice will do once he or she is on the court) but one who is qualified and confirmable. To tell the President before he even nominates someone his nominee is dead on arrival is plain stupid. What if, a huge IF I know, he sent up another Scalia?  They wouldn’t confirm that person?

If Ted Cruz wants to further earn his reputation as someone who will stop the government for no good reason, then let him run on that. A loser position to me, and I think to most Americans. It might guarantee him the nomination in the narrow world of GOP primary politics, but he will lose the election. Rubio the Robot, too. If you want to vote against the nominee, that’s your Constitution-given right. Go for it.

Dumb a move as it would be.

If it’s short-sighted politics you want to play, you’ve just given the President the political deck. He will, as is his obligation, nominate someone and that someone will be either a minority or someone more in the middle of the political spectrum, or both. Putting the GOP in a no-win situation.. You can “delay, delay, delay” as Donald Trump advised, but that too would be dumb politics. You could vote down the nominee, which would be your right. And you can and likely will alienate at least one more group of people.

 At the end of the day, to just say no just furthers the bad image of Republicans as the “we say no to everything” party. If that’s your goal, you have the perfect opportunity to further that image. But don't be that stupid.
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Post-New Hampshire thoughts

2/11/2016

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Random thoughts after the first two caucus and primary states:
  • Clearly all the wise guy pundits (I’ll include myself in this category) have been wrong about Donald Trump. He is “real” in the sense that he’s now won a primary and remains ahead in others. And, he can continue in that position as long as the GOP field stays more than three because Trump is winning with about one-third of the vote – which means two-thirds are voting against him, or for someone else. If the field can be reduced to three – Trump, Cruz and, say, Bush -- the dynamics will change. This has been my theory all along.  If that happens soon. That’s why the battle for the establishment “lane”. Everyone else wants to be that guy. But time will run out if it takes much longer.
  • Jeb Bush is finally hitting a stride –accepting his family name and showing far more comfort on the trail. If the field can winnow faster, he stands to be that other guy because Kasich, while a very good candidate, is probably too moderate for the states next on the voting list. He really is not a moderate but that’s what the current climate does – makes some conservatives look moderate when compared to folks like Cruz and the still-we-don’t-know-what-he-believes Trump. Jeb, though, can’t have “I’m not dead yet” as his campaign slogan – although when he said that he was being “authentic” which is something Sanders seems to be basing a so-far successful candidacy on. So, what’s the problem with Jeb being honest too?
  • Talking about Bernie, in New Hampshire he won every demographic except the over-65 voters. Ironic, no?, that the 74-year-old Sanders overwhelmingly wins the young vote and loses the older vote. But not hard to win the younger vote when you promise, to a cohort that faces dim job prospects and huge debt, free tuition and free health care. Plus he seems to have cornered the market on being "authentic" meaning no one else can be, i guess.
  • Kasich did well in New Hampshire, comparatively. But he won with 15.9 percent of the vote which is less than former Utah Gov. Jon Hunstman got in New Hampshire four years ago (17 percent). And, remember, Huntsman positioned himself as the moderate in that race. Also remember that he dropped out of the race a week later. Still, Kasich’s finish meant that Gov. Christie and Carly Fiorina dropped out, reducing the field.
  • Trump, as the campaign moves south, now can really dominate news coverage by continuing to make outrageous statements at large rallies. The “intimacy” of Iowa and New Hampshire are no longer key because the voting populations are much larger and the primary and caucuses come too fast to allow for house parties and visits to diners and town meetings. Still, he lacks the organizational sophistication, evidenced by his top adviser (his daughter) appearing at events for him and being surprised when reporters showed up…and asked her questions! Or when folks couldn’t get into rallies because the screening lines were too slow. Or realizing Get Out the Vote efforts are essential (see: Iowa).
  • Hillary is shifting her message, as the campaign heads south, to focus more on civil rights, gun control, issues seemingly more important to black voters, who are large constituencies in states coming up. Candidates shift priorities all the time, of course, but when Hillary does it, it feeds the perception that she is untrustworthy, which is her biggest issue with voters. So, while tacking to new issues is smart, it also is dangerous – for her. Plus it often gets played by the media as a "change in strategy."
  • Trump showed flashes of “decency” in his concession speech in Iowa. But in New Hampshire he spent the first few minutes thanking his beautiful wife, his beautiful sons and their beautiful wives and his beautiful daughter. He got to his campaign manager (who else could do this job??) and, finally to the voters of New Hampshire and his opponents. My guess is that if he did secure the nomination (and I still do not believe he will), we would see a new Donald who is a little less bombastic. The question is, would we see a Donald who has any policy solutions to offer? He is, after all, a performer who apparently knows his audience well. As the nominee he'd have a new audience thus a new character role to play.
  • Back to Hillary, she has a women problem – Bernie won women in New Hampshire her by 10 points. A huge win for him. A miscalculation for her seems to be that since the youngest female voters have always had choice on abortion, rights to vote and more opportunities than their mothers, those issues aren’t so real to them. Some don’t even know we never had a female president. Trotting out Gloria Steinham, as much as she has done for women in her life, doesn’t mean much to millennials. And, again, promising free tuition and health care has big appeal.
  • Cruz’ third-place finish in New Hampshire is going relatively uncommented on but to me that is a big win for him, and scary for the rest of us. He didn’t figure to do that well in New Hampshire, but he did. There are a decent group of evangelical voters in New Hampshire although Trump (married three times for one thing and a potty mouth of the first order) did well among that group too. So Cruz getting third is a sign, of what I'm not sure.
  • I couldn’t figure out why Fiorina was still in the race. Not likely to be a vice presidential choice nor a Cabinet member. Also don’t know why Dr. Carson is still in it. Not a VP either and not enough votes to justify HHS. Higher speaker fees?
  • There is a Democratic debate tonight. If Marco Rubio is robot-like, what does that make Bernie? I find myself shouting out Bernie lines before Bernie says them. It’s like watching the Rocky Horror Show – a singalong with Bernie as we all shout “we need a revolution,”,"one percent," “free tuition," “free health care” before he gets the words out of his mouth. As for his average $27 donation form supporters, even Bernie makes a laugh line out of it as he waits for the audience to yell out the number at the appropriate time in his stump speech. Maybe now that he’s dropped out of the GOP race, Chris Christie can do a cameo at the Democratic debates and shake Bernie out of it.
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It's New Hampshire's turn

2/8/2016

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Just hours left until voting starts in New Hampshire and this is the time a big chunk of voters there are making up their minds, changing their minds or still noodling on not only who to vote for, but whose party’s primary to participate in.

That why New Hampshire is so hard to predict – it’s known for folks making up their minds in the last hours and because you can choose, including Independent voters, which party’s primary to participate in when you walk into the polling precinct. Last -inute polls won’t do any good either because voters there change their minds late and because Super Bowl weekend is not the best time to do a phone poll.

Saturday night’s GOP debate resolved one thing – Marco Rubio isn’t ready for prime time. Chris Christie put on his prosecutor’s suit and destroyed the young senator. Matter of fact, I looked up “talking points” in the dictionary and there was a picture of Rubio. (By the way, someone should remind him that his talking point also is a bit off. If he wins the nomination, he won’t be running against Obama in November, it’ll either be Hillary or Sanders.)

The experts say Trump did just fine but I don’t agree. That thing about bringing back waterboarding
“and worse” can’t help in a primary in New Hampshire (or a general in November). And his “shush” moment with Bush was a bad thing too – even if the audience was full of donors who don’t like him. It didn’t look good on TV. Also, his decision not to campaign in the traditional on-the-ground way customary in New Hampshire was a bad move, though he did hit the ground the last couple of days. And, his calling off an event because of a couple of inches of snow and going home to his elegant apartment in New York can’t play well with the natives. His moment of being the weird uncle at holiday dinner is wearing thin.

Christie helped others more than himself with his Rubio offensive which meant Kasich and Bush didn’t have to go as hard after Rubio. Plus, Bush had his best debate and Kasich was his normally solid self. Carson is still a nice guy and still a bad candidate.

So, what’s gonna happen? Well, if the polls and pundits are to be listened to Trump, will win on the GOP side and Bernie will blow out Hillary on the other side. I’m going to stick to my belief, though, that Trump can’t win a primary or caucus and say he will finish at best second and maybe even third. I’m going to predict (guess) that Kasich wins the primary but in a close vote with either Trump second or Bush. Rubio falls to fourth, Cruz fifth (there are more evangelical voters in New Hampshire than you think ) and the others will be dropping out soon enough.

On the other side, I’m guessing Sanders wins because New Hampshire is a neighborly place but I don’t think he wins by the margins in the polls, more like a 9 point win. And, not to burst the bubble of my friends who are quite strongly supporting Bernie, but I believe he is more, as the Washington Post said in a story the other day, “cunning” than the grandfatherly, curmudgeonly image he puts out. I’m no fan of Mrs. Clinton’s but I also do not think she was making any wink-wink deals behind closed doors while giving those overpriced speeches to Wall Streeters. She’s way too smart for that. Cunning, one might say.

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Post-Iowa, now what?

2/2/2016

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                Iowa is history (and a little historic) and it’s on to New Hampshire, now that we’ve had a small dose of the reality of voters voting and not pollsters polling.

                The bloom is off the Trump rose. The Bern is being felt. Rubio and his high-heeled boots are on the rise. Let’s take a closer look.

                On the Republican side voters who made up their minds at the last minute broke to Cruz and Rubio. Trump was closer to third than first. For Cruz Iowa may be his best state, and he didn’t steamroll a win but he clearly out-organized for the victory. He won’t wear as well in coming states. Trump’s finish shows that celebrity isn’t candidacy and Rubio showed that some really hard but last-minute work paid off.

                On the Democratic side, not to toss cold water on my Bernie-supporting friends, but while he clearly had a closer than expected finish, Iowa is a state tailor-made for a Sanders candidacy – mostly white and very liberal. And he earned a virtual tie. While that clearly will help on the momentum front at the moment, it hurts in two ways: one, he probably should have won with the demographics in Iowa  so it doesn’t bode well for other states and, two, a loss always makes Mrs. Clinton a better campaigner.

                So what happens in New Hampshire? Sanders clearly now needs to back up his polling in the Granite State with a big win or he will be judged to have missed expectations. Hillary becomes the underdog and while she lacks the campaign skills of her husband, she does get better under pressure (Doubt that? Go watch the Benghazi hearing). Sanders still has to show, after New Hampshire, that he can appeal to a more diverse electorate and figure out how to balance his record on gun control and his inexperience in foreign policy.  

                The GOP side is more interesting. Cruz is not a New Hampshire candidate. Too right wing and wearing religion on your sleeve isn’t as big a plus there as in Iowa. Trump, before the Iowa results, was leading New Hampshire by a lot – but Iowa will have an effect on those numbers. Rubio is more of a New Hampshire candidate but, in the wings, so are governors Kasich, Christie and Bush. And each of them is working hard at the traditional New Hampshire process of town meetings and house parties.  Kasich has been garnering newspaper endorsements. Bush is better one on one than he is giving a speech or on a debate stage, and that’s key in New Hampshire. It’s also under the radar now because the media hasn’t been covering Bush as closely so any gains there (and my guess is there are some) aren’t being as well noticed.

                Time, of course, will tell. If Rubio should outdistance everyone, clearly he will be the big favorite among establishment types. Personally, he’s not my cup of tea. A bit too practiced for me and, even for a politician, will always tell you what you want to hear. Not unlike Cruz. Trump has had his effects on the race – anger, direct talk (I didn’t say honest, I said direct), frustration with Washington. Other candidates are picking up on that and when all is said and done, voters want someone they can trust as President not someone who talks a good game with no substance behind it.

                So Iowa has put reality back on the table…and the beat will go on.

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This is my story and I'm sticking to it

2/1/2016

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The Iowa caucuses are tonight and everyone expects predictions. I’ll give it a go, but it is difficult when you’re not on the ground and feeling the environment.

I have a friend who’s in Iowa leading some student journalists to cover the voting and she said the other day that they went to Cruz’ headquarters and the “door was open…and lots of people were inside partying.” And someone welcomed them in. Over at Trump headquarters she said the door was locked and they weren’t allowed in. Not sure what that means exactly, but it tells one story.

Based on polls, weather, and what I’m reading out of Iowa here goes:

On the Democrat side I think Hillary wins but Bernie is relatively close, thus the story line doesn’t change heading into New Hampshire, where Sanders has a substantial lead. I think it’s organization that wins in Iowa. Bernie draws a lot of young voters, not known for coming to vote or to caucus and in the byzantine ways of Iowa caucuses, where you get people to attend matters more than how many attend. His campaign has been advertising on college campuses, where he is strong, that students should go home to vote – because his campaign knows they will vote for him. College kids, though, have lots to do besides drive a few hours home on a Monday and get back to classes for Tuesday. While Sanders clearly is leading some kind of movement, I don't think the students will move home for the night to vote.  Sanders should, though, have a respectable showing and remain in it, and after he wins New Hampshire, we’ll see as the campaign heads south if he can do as well in more diverse states.

On the Republican side, I think Cruz wins, Trump is second and maybe even will finish third with Rubio either third or second. I don’t buy that Trump’s supporters will come to the caucuses. It’s supposed to snow and many of his troops have never caucused before. I think his big crowds are a large percentage drawn by his celebrity, not his candidacy. Folks want to see the show and maybe buy a hat. Cruz is said to have one of the best organizations ever built in Iowa, and that’s saying a lot. Even though his popularity is waning some now, the organization takes him over the top.

Cruz would get a boost out of Iowa but he isn’t the typical candidate to win in New Hampshire. Not so many religious voters in New Hampshire -- just ask Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee, both of whom won the Iowa caucus. Trump’s been leading there but an Iowa second or third place finish will take some of the luster off the shine. Kasich, especially bolstered by some good newspaper endorsements, and Bush, buoyed by a stronger than he’s had debate and good-on-the ground-in-New Hampshire work, will do better than folks expect them to do. Thus, the field will start to winnow. Kasich and/or Bush should start to gain some traction heading into states where far less polling has been done and the voters are more diverse, which means fewer votes for Cruz and, likely, Trump.

Trump’s no-show for the last debate hasn’t hurt him a lot but a loss in Iowa will start to reinforce why he is an amateur at politics, inexperienced at governing though a star at betting publicity.

So, I’m not believing the polls. I’m not ever going to believe that the GOP can nominate a Trump or a Cruz. I’ve kind of believed the above throughout this campaign. Call it denial or being an optimist (not something I’ve often been accused of) but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

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    B. Jay Cooper

    B. Jay is a former deputy White House press secretary to Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He also headed the communications offices at the Republican National Committee, U.S. Department of Commerce, and Yale University. He is a former reporter and is the retired deputy managing director of APCO Worldwide's Washington, D.C., office.
    He is the father of three daughters and grandfather of five boys and one girl. He lives in Marion, Mass.

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