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The Screaming Moderate

35 years ago today

3/30/2016

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Thirty-five years ago today, Ronald Reagan was the victim of an assassination attempt, fewer than three months into his first term in office. Thirty-five years ago today I was working my first day as a political appointee in the Reagan Administration, as a public affairs staffer over at the Commerce Department, led by Secretary Malcolm Baldrige.

I can’t say I recall every minute of that first day for me, as Imy memory is overtaken by the attempt on the President and the effects of that on the country and the world. I imagine I spent most of the morning filling out paperwork as a new employee of the government. Which would mean that, after lunch, I was in my first hours of actual work, or learning what it was I was supposed to be doing, when we got the news that President Reagan had been shot. It was a memorable day on many levels.

I had worked on Reagan’s campaign as the spokesmen for it in Connecticut. I came to that job not out of loyalty to Reagan, but because I knew many of the people who had run the George H.W. Bush campaign in Connecticut – a primary won by Bush, not Reagan.

I came to the campaign, though, after Reagan named Bush as his running mate. Two factions in the party who fought tooth and nail against each other, joining together for the good of the party and the country. Two men who opposed each other, but who could sit on the same ticket and, then, on the top of the government for eight years, Bush remaining totally loyal to Reagan for those eight years despite their policy disagreements.

Imagine that happening today? Imagine Cruz accepting the second slot on a Trump ticket? About as likely as, well, not likely. Imagine what “loyalty” would look like in that White House?

As I think back over the 35 years since I started working in Washington, I also think about what a great leader Reagan was – leader, role model, just coming out of the anesthesia and cracking jokes about not ducking, keeping the country top of mind. Bush refused to have his helicopter land on the White House lawn when he flew back to D.C. that day even though he was the acting president. He had too much respect for President Reagan to do that, and knew it would send the wrong message to the country and the world. For both men, demonstrations of leadership, and class.

Reagan, whether you agreed with all his policies or not (and I didn’t agree with all of them), was a leader. He kept the country first in mind always, not himself.

I never thought 35 years would make such a difference but it has, Politics has changed, Society has changed. The media have changed. How we get information has changed. indeed, a different world. 1981 was a world of strong positions laid out by Reagan, who then worked out compromises with Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill to move the country forward. Today, if Trump were the president, I imagine he would not even compromise with the Republican Speaker of the House.

This is a man who doesn’t know how or when to apologize for anything, never admits making a mistake. He was asked last night by Anderson Cooper if he’s ever apologized for anything. He had two answers, after rummaging in his memory for a minute or two: once to his mother, he said (but for what he never said – my guess is he was making that up) and another to his wife who, he said, criticized him for not being “presidential.”

When a female reporter was manhandled by Trump’s campaign manager, Trump blamed the victim for the incident, not his thug. Asked to name the top three things the federal government should be doing for the people, one he named was education. This from the man who said he believes the federal government should not be involved in education that education is a state and local issue. He not only knows not what he believes, he can’t remember what he believes. He has no core.

Trump, though, is a topic for another day. Today, it’s good to remember how Ronald Reagan dealt with an attempt to kill him and how he kept the country’s, and the world’s, reaction top most in his mind, thus demonstrating leadership in a moment when his life hung in the balance. Country before self. It’s good to remember how Reagan had core beliefs and how he could compromise on them to move the ball down the field.

On many levels – personal and political – hard to imagine that was 35 short years ago. The time has passed quickly, as have some of our values.

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Mr. Trump goes to Washington

3/22/2016

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Donald Trump’s tour of Washington, D.C., yesterday – ed board at the Washington Post, speech at a major Jewish organization, press conference at a hotel he’s building – showed different facets of Donald Trump, Marketing Genius.

I watched his speech, I read about his press conference and I read the transcript of his interview at the Post. What those events demonstrated to me is that Donald Trump is the exact opposite of what he claims to be. He says he’s not a politician but he certainly is, in the worst, cynical sense.

His speech was probably the best example. He belittles others for using a teleprompter but even Donald Trump realized this was an important speech, so he had one so he could deliver the messages he wanted to deliver. His very first line was that he didn’t come to pander to the Jewish audience. He then spent the next 20 minutes pandering to the Jewish audience, hitting every point in pretty much the exact tone the audience wanted to hear. So much so that he was interrupted many times not by protestors but by applause. He abandoned his previous position – that he would be neutral on Israel – and said clearly he was not neutral on Israel that Israel was our greatest ally in the Middle East and America would remain in lockstep with Israel. He never mentioned cutting back on the assistance Israel received from the U.S. government. Never one thing that would offend the audience.

His interview with the editorial board demonstrated his lack of depth of knowledge in all issues, including his poll numbers.  He claimed his approval among Hispanics is positive when the dead opposite is true in every poll I’ve seen. He backed off his boast to change the libel laws  so he could successfully sue the media, and he denied that he offered to pay the legal expenses for that brave supporter who sucker-punched a protestor who was being escorted out of a rally by law enforcement. He named a few of his foreign policy advisors for the first time. Most of those he named were contacted after and confirmed they were advising him, but hadn’t yet had a conversation with him.

He spent the first few minutes of his hour with the paper’s top editors and writers bragging about the hotel he’s building in D.C. Don’t take my word for it, I encourage you to read the transcript yourself (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/03/21/a-transcript-of-donald-trumps-meeting-with-the-washington-post-editorial-board/?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-b%3Ahomepage%2Fstory) . Without the use of a teleprompter in the interview, he became The Donald he is in his rallies – spouting the same lines, not being specific about how he would accomplish what he’s promising, thundering about making America great again, backing off his threat to change the country’s libel laws so he could more easily successfully sue the media and denying much of what he’s been caught saying on video for the last few months.

Oh, and he ended his visit to the Post by hitting on one of the female reporters in attendance, according to the New York Times and a blog post by the reporter herself, calling her “beautiful.”  

His press conference was pure Marketer Donald. He pointed to the fabulous marble floors that will be installed, bragged about how the hotel will open ahead of schedule and under budget, and led the press on a tour of the work in progress. The cheapest rooms will be $750 a night, not exactly priced for the very same people who have voted for him and made him the leader for the nomination and the political story of the century. Another presidential moment – hawking his business venture while the nation’s press, covering a presidential candidate, followed him around, not unlike when he put his (publicly discontinued) product lines on exhibit in Florida recently.

 I do not believe, despite his promises to ban a religious group from this country, his horrible comments about blacks, Jews, women and the disabled, that Trump is the new Hitler. I think Trump is the new Barnum. A carnival barker who can coax you into buying a ticket into the freak show and will say whatever he has to to make the sale.

He is one thing in the GOP primary and he will be another thing in the general election, assuming he’s the candidate. The problem is, once you win the election as Robert Redford learned in the movie The Candidate, you have to figure out what to do to govern.

If that moment should ever occur, both Donald Trump and the American population will be asking, “What do we do now?”


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Florida and Ohio: Will they block Trump's path?

3/14/2016

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Tuesday is a key day in the GOP primary season.

If Donald Trump wins both Florida and Ohio, the nomination is pretty much his. If he loses either state, the convention in July could last until September with the number of roll call votes it could take to get a winner. I don’t really understand the rules but my old friend and Republican wise man Ben Ginsberg, is a living encyclopedia of GOP rules and he explains things in Politico here: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/republican-contention-chaos-213725.

Florida, based on the polls, is going to be Trump country. Ohio is up for grabs with Gov. Kasich running neck and neck.

I’ve been consistently wrong (with one or two aberrations where I was right) all along on Trump. He never faded. No outrageous comment did him in. In fact after last week’s GOP debate, I thought Trump locked himself in but he didn’t. Liars, narcissists, and con men never lock themselves in. They always have an out.

Where I thought he locked in last week was talking about violence at his rallies. A white man sucker punching a black man and Trump looking to pay the white man’s legal bills when the white man clearly broke the law. A young African-American woman being escorted out of a Trump rally, smiling, saying and doing nothing but being called every name in the book that a woman and an African-American can be called and being shoved by (white) men.

Trump said at the debate he did not condone violence at his rallies. But the next day, he was back leading the cheers for those violently opposing protestors at his rallies. He was blaming Bernie Sanders for disrupting his rallies (as if Bernie doesn’t have his hands full enough with Hillary Clinton). And, as if Bernie would do such a thing.  

So in Donald Trump’s world it’s okay to sucker punch someone, it’s okay to berate, abuse and insult a Black woman being escorted out of a rally and it’s okay to stomp on their First Amendment rights. 

Problems is Bernie and Hillary and Marco and Ted and John and the Speaker and the President can condemn him all they want, it just seems to embolden his supporters even more. But remember, his supporters are not even a majority of the Republican Party let along a majority in the country. In the primaries and caucuses, Trump leads but has won only 44 percent of the delegates up for grabs. He still can be beaten either at the primary ballot box or at the convention.

So, it is up to Florida and Ohio. I am rooting for the home teams in both contests. With Florida likely a lost cause, all I can say is, Go, Buckeyes!

 
 
 

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Was it the turning point for the GOP race?

3/11/2016

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When we look back on last night’s Republican debate, it may have been the turning point.

Did Donald Trump’s shifting to what he thinks is a more presidential demeanor further endear his 35 percent of the GOP vote? Did they not recognize him? Did he win more converts since they saw a calmer side of him that talked issues? Or did folks see that he really is an inch, at most, deep on the issues and reality is settling in that he is not qualified to be President of the United States?

All that was on display last night. Trump wasn’t baiting his opponents. He let slide opportunities he would have seized on last week to be loud and bombastic.  He talked, what passes for him, as substance.

And the voters can determine whether he really knows what he’s talking about. I’d say he demonstrated little grasp of the issues. He turned to his stale answers on the deficit (“waste, fraud and abuse!”; negotiate better deals!; cut drug prices! He will not touch Social Security! He will rebuild the military! On Israel, he is solidly behind Israel – after all, he’s contributed money, has two Jewish grandchildren and was grand marshal in a Jewish parade!

In short, he was very weak, I thought, on the issues. Common Core alone he was dead wrong on.

Marco Rubio, on the other hand, finally demonstrated why folks say he is a skilled politician. He demonstrated a knowledge of the issues, kept his cool, and may have contributed to a rise that’s occurring for him in the Florida polls. He has to win Tuesday in Florida or go bye-bye. Trump's lead was down to single digits before the debate.

Cruz was a shrill as ever. Kasich was Kasich- the turtle in the race, slow and steady but not breaking through.

A question for Trump is: can he return to his old style after last night? He condemned violence at his rallies, for example. Now, can he again say “get him out of here!”, “throw her out!” or “I’d like to punch him in the face and win cheers? This after a supporter did sucker punch someone in the face at his rally the other day. Will his “let’s make a deal” platform be enough or will he now have to finally show substance in these debates and interviews?

Was his change in strategy – an effort it seemed to begin to convince the GOP establishment he’s okay, pointing out he’s brought in millions of new voters – the right move at the right time?

I think not. If he had displayed a knowledge of substance, maybe it would have worked. Plus there are gazillions of dollars being spent on negative ads against him now which you may not see if you’re not in a state with an upcoming primary. His opponents tried matching his style, failed and gave up on that approach and now he’s playing in their sandbox, or was last night. It’s the wrong sandbox for him.

Time will tell but I think he hurt himself last night and let the others show their substantive strength.


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Limbo lower now; how low can you go?

3/4/2016

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Last night’s GOP presidential debate (for President of the United States,  not president of Miss Smith’s 3rd grade class, in case you weren’t sure) was the low in class but good for folks to decide who on that stage should be the Republican candidate. We saw three men competing not only for who could make the biggest fool of himself but also for who has the most manhood, literally.

The only adult on the stage was Ohio Gov. John Kasich who, when given a chance by Chris Wallace to join in the slash and mash of the others, said, thanks, but he’s not biting.

Fox News did a good job with the questions and with the “let’s go to the video” moments to show Donald Trump’s forever changing views and to show slides of his forever wrong numbers. And his constant, never-ending salesmanship. By the way, find some old commercials or presentations by Trump online and you’ll see he’s been selling all his products the same way he is selling himself for president. With big promises and the same words – exactly. His spiel has not changed. And it is spiel.

If you didn’t see the debate, here’s a summary:
  • Trump again showed why he’s the one who’s all talk and no action (as he claims about the Washington politicians).
  • Fox properly showed the real numbers on the amount he can save through “making better deals” on Medicare drugs. He said he could save $300 billion a year, but Medicare spends only $78 billion a year. Fox also showed that by eliminating the Department of Education, as Trump has proposed (by the way, a very old saw of the right wing, not an original thought), it doesn’t make a dent in the budget deficit.( And, by the way, now the government puts about everything out to bid and, typically, the lowest bid  wins. So, I’m not sure how much room there is for your “great” negotiating skills, Mr. Trump.). By the end of the exchange, Trump said the $300 billion referred to savings across the government. Lie. That's not what he said before.
  • Trump refused to admit (or release the tape) of his New York Times interview where he reportedly said he would not deport 11 million illegal aliens and he might not build the wall. Why? Because the session was “off the record” and he said he wouldn’t double-cross someone in the media like that. This from the same man who would, if he could, change the free speech laws so he can more easily sue the press, who he calls the most “dishonest” people he knows  By the way, he never denied he said something different to the Times than he says to his voters.
  • Rubio attempted more insults of Trump
  • Cruz attempted more insults of Trump (“breathe, Donald, breathe”)
  • Kasich looked disgusted with the whole thing
  • Oh, and Trump admitted that he’d be “flexible” as president because all good leaders are flexible. Mr. Trump, you can’t promise a wall that Mexico will pay for and then say but you’re flexible. Which is it? Do we believe you now? Or five minutes from now?
I have not been a huge fan of the direction the Republican Party has been moving for the last 30 years or so. But this is not the GOP establishment moving toward Trump, these are “the people.” Trump obviously has made it okay for people to show their bigotry, prejudices, ignorance because if you’re for Donald Trump that is what you’re for.

I watched the video of the young African-American woman who was asked to leave a Trump rally. As she left men, white men, white men wearing hats worn by veterans, were pushing her on her way out and taunting her. If they had video back in the 1816, this is what you would have seen. But this is 2016.

Rubio has shown he’s not ready for the big chair. If Trump weren’t in the race Cruz would be the crazy one on the stage. Kasich does have experience (and you do need experience for the job; it’s not for amateurs) and the temperament and, he has shown in these debates, more class than the other three combined. Not that that takes a lot.

I’m not sure the GOP debates can go any lower than last night’s. But as long as Donald Trump is around, count on it.

 

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Romney to the rescue?

3/3/2016

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Mitt Romney delivered an excellent case against Donald Trump. Will it be effective? We’ll know soon because Romney, in a very Trumpian tactic, will drive the news for the rest of today, into tonight’s GOP debate and into the weekend.

Trump’s response is yet to come. If it’s like his previous responses he will not respond with substance but will call Romney a presidential loser, will point to the fact that Romney solicited (I bet he'll use the word "begged") Trump’s endorsement four years ago, etc. etc.

He will not likely respond to Romney’s well laid out case substantively against Trump – like the fact that his trade “policy” will lead to a trade war which will cost American jobs, businesses and workers. It likely would lead to our economy tanking. His election alone likely would mess with world financial markets and would speed allies and foes alike to assess a new strategy toward the U.S. This is not the establishment talking, as Trump will claim, this is reality TV.

Is there time to derail him? Sure, but Romney’s speech likely will not affect Trump’s one-third of the GOP vote. But it may affect the other two-thirds and maybe, maybe will give some of the one-third pause in coming primaries.

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Surreal TV.

3/2/2016

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I needed a little time to begin to start to try to accept that Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee for President. I kept watching as Trump rolled to win after win in state primaries and caucuses. It was surreal. But it truly was reality television.

This liar is about to be a major party’s nominee unless a miracle hits or he announces he really doesn’t want the job anyway. After all, the accommodations at the White House aren’t nearly as regal as those at his mansion in Florida.

Ok, go ahead, say it. All politicians lie. I get that. But that don't all lie like Trump -- bald-faced, in-your-face, out-and-out lies.

Trump is a liar. He can call others that, but it takes one to know one, to get to the sandbox level of debate he began. He said he didn’t know who David Duke was, he knows. And all I need is one lie to prove he is a liar. I won’t get into other stupid things he’s said. Oh, hell, sure I will:
  • He said John McCain is a loser because he was captured by the enemy
  • He told a roomful of Jewish businessmen that he “didn’t need your money” to run for president
  • He said things I refuse to repeat about a Fox news personality
  • He wants to build an $8-$12 billion wall to block off anyone coming here from Mexico. Oh, and he’ll get Mexico to pay for it.
  • He wants to evict 11 million illegal aliens

Need I go on? This man wants to be President. Of the United States. Of America.

I get it. People are pissed and Trump is the, ignore the next few words if you are easily offended, the piss vessel they have chosen to carry their anger forward.

Think about this: Who would he choose as his vice president. Lord forbid, who would he nominate to his Cabinet? Advise and Consent? Really? You think there’s a stalemate over the next Supreme Court nominee, wait for the Trump appointees to make their ways to the Hill. Sure GOP senators will be disposed to approve them – but assuming there’s a crazy name or 14, they have to at least question them to do their duty. Don’t they??

He thinks he’s running for king, not president. He’s going to change the libel laws (as if he had the power) to make it easier for him to “win lots of money” from The New York Time sand Washington Post. Can you spell Alien and Sedition Act? He thinks judges sign laws – heck, his sister, who is a judge, apparently signed a law, he said, as did a Supreme Court justice. Lord have mercy! Where is that in the Constitution?? Or maybe it will be once President Trump inserts it, because he apparently will think he has that power too.

And this bumpkin is out-maneuvering the smartest in the GOP, or what’s left of the GOP?

Chris Christie, a whore if I’ve ever seen one, stood and introduced Mr. Trump, as he refers to him, last night to accept his wins on Super Tuesday. Trump called Christie, “Chris.” So we now the balance of power in that relationship.  Must be because Chris Christie, who heretofore, has taken a back seat to no man or woman, then stood silently behind Mister Trump and tried to look adoringly at him. Please, Chris, we know you want to be Vice President, a little less ambition would look good on you. Maybe.

I’ve written that if the party this year were to nominate a right-winger, say a Cruz, and he lost, then the right-wingers would have to stop saying “if only we’d stop nominating squishes, we’d win.” And then we maybe could see the GOP fall back into a more reasonable political posture.

Well, if Trump is the nominee, when he loses, it may achieve the same goal, or not. He is not a right winger. I’m not sure what he is other than a businessman who is out for himself.  If Trump loses there will be, I hope, a battle for the future of the GOP.

If Trump wins, I guarantee you The Wall will not be built. Eleven million people will not be kicked out of the country. And if as president he were to waste his time on those things, I can’t imagine what happens with the other important issues that would be ignored.

I cannot imagine one out of 10 African Americans or one out of 10 Hispanic Americans will vote for Trump. I gotta believe he is doing for Hillary what Hillary couldn’t do for herself – move more women to vote for her than likely would have if she was against a sane opponent. And I have to believe that the one-third of Republicans who are moderates will all either not vote, vote for a third-party or, gosh almighty, vote for Hillary.

Then again, I was the one who said he’d never win a primary.

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    B. Jay Cooper

    B. Jay is a former deputy White House press secretary to Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He also headed the communications offices at the Republican National Committee, U.S. Department of Commerce, and Yale University. He is a former reporter and is the retired deputy managing director of APCO Worldwide's Washington, D.C., office.
    He is the father of three daughters and grandfather of five boys and one girl. He lives in Marion, Mass.

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