If Donald Trump wins both Florida and Ohio, the nomination is pretty much his. If he loses either state, the convention in July could last until September with the number of roll call votes it could take to get a winner. I don’t really understand the rules but my old friend and Republican wise man Ben Ginsberg, is a living encyclopedia of GOP rules and he explains things in Politico here: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/republican-contention-chaos-213725.
Florida, based on the polls, is going to be Trump country. Ohio is up for grabs with Gov. Kasich running neck and neck.
I’ve been consistently wrong (with one or two aberrations where I was right) all along on Trump. He never faded. No outrageous comment did him in. In fact after last week’s GOP debate, I thought Trump locked himself in but he didn’t. Liars, narcissists, and con men never lock themselves in. They always have an out.
Where I thought he locked in last week was talking about violence at his rallies. A white man sucker punching a black man and Trump looking to pay the white man’s legal bills when the white man clearly broke the law. A young African-American woman being escorted out of a Trump rally, smiling, saying and doing nothing but being called every name in the book that a woman and an African-American can be called and being shoved by (white) men.
Trump said at the debate he did not condone violence at his rallies. But the next day, he was back leading the cheers for those violently opposing protestors at his rallies. He was blaming Bernie Sanders for disrupting his rallies (as if Bernie doesn’t have his hands full enough with Hillary Clinton). And, as if Bernie would do such a thing.
So in Donald Trump’s world it’s okay to sucker punch someone, it’s okay to berate, abuse and insult a Black woman being escorted out of a rally and it’s okay to stomp on their First Amendment rights.
Problems is Bernie and Hillary and Marco and Ted and John and the Speaker and the President can condemn him all they want, it just seems to embolden his supporters even more. But remember, his supporters are not even a majority of the Republican Party let along a majority in the country. In the primaries and caucuses, Trump leads but has won only 44 percent of the delegates up for grabs. He still can be beaten either at the primary ballot box or at the convention.
So, it is up to Florida and Ohio. I am rooting for the home teams in both contests. With Florida likely a lost cause, all I can say is, Go, Buckeyes!