What do you do when the bombastic, over-the-top, loud front-runner in the presidential race doesn’t attend the final debate before the important first caucus?

Take your one shot at him calling him a coward who can’t face a TV anchorwoman when he may have to face Vladimir Putin as president and move on. We get it. He appears to be afraid of a woman’s direct questions. Whatever. Who knows (or cares) why he says he's skipping the debate.

The guy who sucks the energy out of a debate hall won’t be there. Take advantage. If you looked like a wimp when he was in the hall, show us you're strong with him out of the hall. Stop using him as the excuse for your poor performance or you not getting enough time to talk and show us your stuff.

Quit the belly aching. If you think he made a bad move, then let it be a bad move…take advantage of it. If you think it’s a good move and he beat you to it, figure out a strategy to counter it….take advantage of it. The stage is yours tonight as long as he’s not there.

Okay, afterwards folks may say you were strong because he wasn’t in the room. Personally, the way the GOP race has been shaping up…I’d accept that if it got me into the first tier and on a more even keel with the front-runner. It’s better than where you are now.

He announces he’s not attending and, once again, commands the center of media attention for 24 hours. Use the two hours of debate time when he won’t be there to seize attention for yourself. Show us you have not just the smarts and temperament to be president, but the wherewithal to demonstrate that in a debate when the clown in the room isn’t there.

I get that a bully can suck the oxygen out of a room. I get his “damn the rules I’m the best performer in the room and I don’t care about political correctness” attitude has dominated the race. But, for two hours, he won’t be there – it’s free time to show your stuff.
 
‘Nuff said. Start the debate and let the fool stay on the hill.

Pick your cliché but It’s just a few weeks before actual votes are cast in the presidential primaries so let’s recap where we are:

On the GOP side, Donald Trump’s standing doesn’t seem to ever recede – maybe in individual states – but nationally he holds steady. Right now, the Real Clear Politics average shows him at 31 percent, and Cruz at 19. On the other side, Hillary Clinton is strong, nationally, at 59 percent with Bernie Sanders at 34. We know that in Iowa and New Hampshire Sanders is strong and could win both of those states supposedly sending the Democrats into a reminder that Hillary was way ahead in 2008 but faded to a fast-rising Barrack Obama.
What’s gonna happen? I have no clue. My best guess is this:

On the Democratic side, Sanders wins New Hampshire for sure and will show strong in Iowa even if he doesn’t win. He will set the media into high gear of “he’s on the move,” “she’s in trouble,” “shocker on the Democratic side.” My guess is that he will fade as the campaign moves south where Sanders doesn’t do as well as the voters diversify and Hillary will come back to win in spite of the fact even many who will vote for her will hold their noses. On the R side, Cruz should win Iowa and, if he doesn’t, that will set the GOP world on fire. Trump likely wins New Hampshire, but until we hear what happens in Iowa, I’m not laying any money down.

I do think on the GOP side there will be some buyers’ remorse even before Iowa results come in. While anti-Trump stuff has had little effect so far, The Washington Post has a story this morning -- https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/trumps-bad-bet-how-too-much-debt-drove-his-biggest-casino-aground/2016/01/18/f67cedc2-9ac8-11e5-8917-653b65c809eb_story.html -- laying out Trump’s record on his investments in Atlantic City. He, in an interview for that story, does as he always does –threatened the Post with a lawsuit if they published it. The story is loaded with attribution and relies heavily on public government and court documents to make its case that Trump wasn’t as good a businessman as he claims and while he can say “he made money,” the way he did is questionable – like when he asked his dad for help and then his dad traded millions of dollars for gambling chips at a Trump casino, which Trump then used to bail out his finances on the casino. Illegal? Probably not. But not straightforward either.

He also made all the claims then that he makes now – that he’s a great negotiator, that he’s smart and that he’s rich and threatened folks then with lawsuits too if they didn’t stop telling the truth about him (well, he didn’t put it that way, but that’s the fact). The same tactics he uses today. Oh, and remember when he said a few weeks ago that he had actual proposals coming out “next week?” I must have missed them.

How long before voters get the joke? I don’t know but I have faith that they will. Plus, if you add his polled vote with Cruz’, it totals 50 percent. This will never happen but if the “others” in the race decided to get behind one of their competitors, that person would be in the lead. While that won’t happen, the winnowing process should get us there sooner than later. Does Rubio have the staying power to be that one person? Will Jeb’s money and financial backers stay with him long enough so it can be him?

Plus, look at Politico today, or click here http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/2016-gop-primary-crazier-than-you-think-213542 and read Ben Ginsberg – one of The Experts on primaries in the GOP – who lays out the timing and expectations of how the process works, not how it will play out, but the mechanics which affect the voting. It’s more complicated than you think and it’s not automatic that anyone wins sufficient delegates to win the nomination outright.

In other words, the game starts when Iowa votes, not before. And the dynamics in four weeks won’t be the same dynamic as today. My guess is eventually Hillary wins her coronation, uh, nomination on the D side and we see someone like Jeb or Marco or Christie on the GOP side. Cruz, who, as Trump says, is widely disliked by his colleagues, cannot win in November. Christie wears thin, at least on me. Stop yelling Chris! This isn’t New Jersey or an episode of The Sopranos. And Marco is very green and looks it. Jeb is not a good performer on the campaign trail and the odds are against him, but he’s still the adult on the GOP side who has actual ideas and is conducting himself (mostly) maturely on the trail.

The chickens are coming home to roost in American politics.

Republicans for years built a political base with folks of the very right-leaning belief. Over the last couple of decades, that right has gone even right-er and birthed movements like the Tea Party and elected people like Sen. Ted Cruz who preferred shutting down the government to finding a compromise even with his own party.

Democrats have always had a quite liberal base. That base hasn’t been much happier with its elected officials over the years.
As the two parties played to their bases, the country has become more and more polarized.

Thus, today we have presidential wannabes like Cruz and Vermont’s self-described “Democratic Socialist” Bernie Sanders. So, what if…

…Bernie wins Iowa (not such a long shot anymore) AND New Hampshire, the first two primaries of the year. How does that change the expectation of a Hillary coronation? Twin wins would give Bernie credibility and momentum – key in primaries.

On the GOP side, If Cruz wins Iowa, as it appears, and Trump wins New Hampshire, as it appears, we potentially could wind up in November with a Democratic –Socialist running against an extreme right wing nut.

What does the great middle of the American voting spectrum do then? Stay home? Then we wind up with Sanders or, say, Cruz and as president??

For many years each party has teased its base with promising things it would do to make them happy  - and then not do what they promised. This is a political cycle where it’s been proven anything can happen. So, Hillary could lose the nomination and, if Republicans knock out more moderate candidates like Bush or Kasich early, Cruz could pull it off.
It could happen. Liberals will be thrilled with Bernie as their candidate and right wingers would be ecstatic with Cruz.  

Does it open a real opportunity for a third party? Maybe. Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb is making noises about running third party as is former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Given the choice of Sanders v. Cruz, either might be an appealing compromise.