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The Screaming Moderate

South Carolina truly is a make-or-break state

2/27/2020

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Every presidential primary season there seems to be about 48 moments that the media play up a particular state as make or break time. This year, they may be right.

Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders is the hot candidate of the moment having won two and basically tying the other primary, so far. Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg was always hovering around, spending hundreds of millions on advertising dollars but not entering a primary until Super Tuesday which is next week. He figured by then a bunch of the candidates would have flamed out and he would be poised to have a super Super Tuesday.

What Bloomberg apparently didn’t plan on was performing not just horribly in the debates but demonstrating his elitism, which is a turnoff to nearly all voters.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, having done what he always has done in president primary seasons not only hasn’t won a primary but didn’t finish in the top tier. This, apparently, was just another presidential contest Biden would lose.

But this primary is different.

Not only does Sanders scare nearly everyone on the under ticket in the Democratic Party, he isn’t even a Democrat yet he wants already to change the rules so that if he survives with a plurality of delegates, the convention should choose him. That is not what the rules say.

Lord, how did things get so mucked up for a party that seemed to be on its way to defeating an incumbent president who, for most of his presidency, has been disliked by a majority of Americans? And who is incapable of reassuring the country we’ll be okay in the face of the coronavirus? Even at that moment, the vice president and others stood in front of a national audience to reassure us about the government's preparedness for the virus they spent almost as much time praising the President more than they talked about the potential emergency facing the country. And Trump stood enjoying the praise. As he always does. Whether warranted or not.

But, this year is going to be different, I think. While my predictions are worth not even as much as a professional pundit’s, I predict Biden will not just win in South Carolina Saturday, but will win by double digits so that it is a clear win – and in the first state where a majority of Democratic primary voters are African Americans, a key constituency for November. That will re-energize his campaign.

Biden not only traditionally performs horribly in primaries, he has put in mostly disappointing “debate” performances. That’s not his forte, trying to get in a word among so many others on the stage. He truly is a gentleman who not only tries to follow the rules but typically doesn’t put up much of a fight about it.

Until Tuesday, that is. For a moment, Biden flashed a bit of anger, seasoned with a sense of humor (it was his Catholic upbringing that makes him follow the rules, he said).

Biden is good at (and genuine about) making a connection with a voter, which means the town meeting format plays more to his strengths. A moment from last night’s Biden town hall on CNN has gone viral because of the genuine emotions Biden displayed in his answer to a religious question. And he did it without preaching but by just relating.

Biden knows his personal legacy is at stake – as well as the future of the country. Imagine a Trump presidency with a Republican Senate and House.

So, I predict a Biden win but that won’t be enough. Biden also is low on cash and Super Tuesday will be just a few days away. Bloomberg has been spending in those states, heavily, for a long time, and each of his other opponents has more money than Biden does. Well, maybe except for Tulsi Gabbard who not only is still in the race but who surprisingly is in the race at all. One must wonder why she’s there but that’s a topic for another day.

Joe needs money. But he’ll get it, or at least enough, as the party elders are near panic about Sanders leading them into a battle in November that likely would mean a loss to Trump, and also likely losses down ticket. Re-energizing his campaign also means he likely will increase his troops of desperately needed volunteers for the ground game in the primaries.

I would hope that if Biden puts on a strong enough display, it will launch him into Super Tuesday after which, if he performs well, many of the more moderate candidates would start to drop out, allowing Biden to pick up their voters.

Surprisingly, despite having had a large and the most diverse bunch of candidates ever, the Democratic Party has also had a field of bad candidates. But the field is loaded with men and women who not only can fill out a Biden presidency quite capably but also can continue to train for future presidential runs.

Biden likely, despite what he says, would serve only one term, get the country back on an even-er keel, re-establish our necessary leadership on the world stage and allow each of us to go to bed not worried about  what we’ll be waking up to.

Our collective blood pressures would go down.


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There's the war of attrition..but don't forget the Big War

2/20/2020

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The Democrats had a very lively almost entertaining debate last night with plenty of sub-plots. Still, it wasn’t hard to determine the candidate who stood out: Donald Trump.

Trump stood out because the six Democrats on stage seemed more focused on tearing each other down rather than focusing on Trump. In fact, the Trump campaign I’m sure got a few video clips they can use in their effective online campaign. Probably already running.

I didn't count but his name wasn't mentioned often.

If any of the Democrats on stage gained or at least didn't lose, it was Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is leading the polls at the moment. Bernie sat happily (if one could tell when Bernie is happy) watching his opponents attack each other while he just fell back on the same diatribes he’s been spouting for years (the 1 percent, billionaires, capitalism and the working men and women, health care for all, pay off tuition debt). Put a nickel in any of us who pay attention and we can probably recite back all of Bernie’s talking points, almost verbatim.

Still, no one really landed a glove on him so he escapes with his lead. The only question is has he hit his ceiling in votes?

From the first minute it appeared Trump would be the focus when Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren quoted a negative statement about women and pulled off the punchline – it wasn’t a quote from Trump but from Michael Bloomberg, the first shot he’s taken in a debate in many years. And it showed.

Bloomberg took a lot of hits, many deserved, but for most of the debate he looked like a spoiled rich kid who wondered why he had to be there and I’d agree.

I’m not sure why he felt the need to be on the stage when he’s spending tens of millions of dollars showing ads in which he looks strong. ads that already have shot him up to second or third in the polls. He did not show that strong leader trait for most of last night. And when he tried, he didn’t pull them off (like, he doesn’t go to Turbo Tax for his taxes to get done. Uh, we knew that Mike but I’m guessing millions took it as you’re rich and they’re not. We knew that that too.)

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar followed up her best debate performance with maybe her worst as the most outstanding memory of her from this debate was her arguing with her stage neighbor – former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigeg – who may look too young but still came across more often as the adult on the stage. He may be the only one who doesn’t scream when he talks, thank goodness. Meantime, Sen. Klobuchar didn't help herself at all last night and showed she angers quickly. One can imagine from her performance that the knock on her that she mismanges her staff probably are true.

Former Vice President Joe Biden had another so-so debate. He wasn’t heard from for about 30 minutes and I nearly forgot that he was on stage. He’s still arguing thought that he’s been in government a long time, knows other countries’ leaders by their first names and he can be president from Day One. (Uh, we know that but what kind of president will you be? And I really like him.)

Still there were no haymakers landing on President Trump. The Democrats instead stood in a circle and fired their guns. That may win the war of attrition but it won’t win in November.


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Hullabaloos everywhere

2/13/2020

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Watching the TV news or reading the print headlines, there are two huge hullabaloos taking place right now.

One, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, they say, is leading the race to be the Democratic presidential nominee and the other is that President Donald Trump is trampling on the Constitution and (more) political norms.

First, Sen. Sanders: If you look at the delegate counts right now, after two tiny states have voted, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg is leading by one delegate. The popular vote, while interesting, doesn’t matter because that’s not how the Iowa caucuses assign delegates won.

In New Hampshire, which neighbors Sanders’ Vermont, the senator won the popular vote by about 1.5 percentage points, far from the 22 points he won by four years ago. I think the difference tells you more about how disliked Hillary Clinton was than how popular Sanders was. He indeed was facing 7 challengers this year but he dropped back to what many consider his ceiling in votes. General consensus is that he has a base of about 25 percent of the Democratic primary voters, which is where he’s been most of the time in polls. In a field of even eight, that’s a good amount but it can't be called outdistancing all his opponents.

But to call Sanders the front runner as of today is a bit far off the actual numbers. That’s not to say he isn’t a hot candidate. He is. But he’s not, yet, drawing from a broad swath of Democrats. It may show us, though, how important positive media coverage is especially in a primary if one candidate is continuously hawked as the front-runner.

We’ll see.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is in a hole, obviously, but his people must have always known he would be. He never has done well in primaries or in Iowa and he may continue that bad streak this year. He definitely needs to finish first or second in Nevada and first in South Carolina to be called anything close to a front-runner. Or even a contender.

Also, Sanders is no Donald Trump, but  in one sense he may be. Trump took over the GOP four years ago and he was definitely an outsider with no known base to draw from. Now, he’s the GOP leader because he’s President and because nearly every elected Republican is scared to death of him.  Sanders is not even a registered Democrat and refuses to register as one even as he criticizes the party for allegedly opposing him as the candidate (uh, calling yourself a Democratic Socialist probably isn’t the best label against Trump, but at least it’s honest).

In any event, in that sense Bernie is a Trump -- an outsider trying to take over the party. Trump succeeded. Will Sanders?

Which leads us to Trump’s hullabaloo.

He barely took a breath from being acquitted of the impeachment charges (thanks to a nearly unanimous GOP vote in the Senate). And he began his revenge, firing people, pulling federal job nominations away from people, using his might to try to get a reduced sentence for Roger Stone (well, a reduced recommendation, sort of. It’s up to the judge to declare a sentence), he’s bringing back allies to the White House (the highly partisan Trump-backer Cong. Mark Meadows, most likely, and this morning it’s reported that Hope Hicks is making a return engagement).

On Stone, the sentence recommendation, according to many experts, was harsh but it’s what the prosecutors recommended after, supposedly, running it up their chain of command at the Justice Department as is the rule. As soon as their superiors, after a presidential tweet, distanced themselves and entered a no recommendation to the court, the four prosecutors  pulled their names off the case, and, further, one resigned from the department. None, yet, has explained his or her reasons.

Trump dismissed these prosecutors because in his transactional and vengeful mind, they were part of Bob Mueller’s team and, therefore, tainted by politics. His supporters, elected and average man and woman, of course, take up that talking point immediately because they indeed believe there is a “deep state” against Trump.

He also corrals all his “opponents” in DC into “the swamp” that he claims to be draining. He isn’t. He is simply removing anyone who opposes him and calls them swamp creatures while replacing them with his own swamp dwellers.

With Trump there is always an enemy, has to be for his form of leadership to work, and he is still using Mueller/his team and the Clintons.

Far more importantly, he is learning that he can use his position and power to do favors for his compadres right out in the open, and he pays no price whatsoever. So, why not push the envelope further?

And he will. Will anyone in power push back?


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Political season is heating up

2/10/2020

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I’ve always promoted the strategy that Democrats should, early, pick a presidential nominee, get behind him or her, and get their coalition together in a force to oppose Donald Trump, who is becoming a more formidable foe than some anticipated. Getting everyone on board early, I theorized, would avoid splitting votes among a myriad of candidates and end the infighting over ideology when the main goal is to beat Donald Trump.

I’ve always thought, too, that Joe Biden was the right candidate because he would be the most effective transition president away from Trump and toward, well, normal.

I still believe in that strategy but it’s complicated now by the non-results in Iowa and the likely results in New Hampshire – Sen. Bernie Sanders and Mayor Pete likely leading the way with possibly Sen. Elizabeth Warren third. Before Pete caught fire, Biden could have finished his fourth in Iowa and even New Hampshire, where he could honestly point to two neighboring state U.S. Senators leading the way and being too much to overcome. But that strategy is gone.

The press is onto Mayor Pete being the outsider this time, and they do love that narrative. Uh, until the next one comes along.

Now, IF Biden can hang in there until South Carolina, where the Democratic base is a more mixed demographic, he still will have an uphill battle. His funders, I doubt, will stay with him that long.

So, assuming Biden drops out at some point, who is the favorite for the nomination? Probably the other mayor, Mike Bloomberg. I have my reasons for thinking he can’t win but with the Democratic base looking at a choice of Bernie, Pete or Mike, I have a feeling I know where they’re going. It’s not so much that Democrats don’t like Bernie it’s that they just don’t think he can win. And, don’t lose touch with the fact that Bernie is not a Democrat and that doesn’t sit well either.

If my little scenario ever played out, that doesn’t make Mayor Mike a better opponent for Trump – Bloomberg brings along his own baggage with minority voters and others.

But, they are probably more overcome-able than having a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist or a 37-year old who, while impressive so far, does not have sufficient experience to be President (I know, look who’s President now). Plus, who then would Mayor Pete pick as a running mate to balance his weaknesses? I dunno but the options don’t look promising in that match-up.

Sanders also is on a bit of a free ride as the other candidates are not attacking him as much as they are each other. Probably because Sanders does have a cult-like base that is sticking with him no matter what. Uh, sound familiar? We have a president like that now.

Meanwhile, Trump had the best week of his presidency. Though when you consider one of the highlights of the week was a tribe of Republican senators who saved him from being thrown out of office, the highlights aren’t so high.

He was impeached, ya know. And saved by a bunch of senators scared for their own futures.Thank goodness Alan Dershowitz, came through for them with a ridiculous reason to acquit but not so ridiculous that they couldn’t hide behind it.

The economy keeps on keeping on and likely will not enter a recession this year – the best medicine for Trump to take into a re-election campaign. The economy has been resilient. It has been growing for a record 12 years now (yes, 12. The recovery began under Obama despite what Trump says. The incumbent President always gets the credit for a good economy and, at least historically, the blame when it goes bad.)

Trump also credits himself with a fabulous State of the Union but he never did care about how many lies he tells and this speech was a bonanza of lies. Speaker Nancy Pelosi ripped up the speech. I can't blame her but I think she was wrong to do it giving Trump and his supporters memes (many phony) for weeks.

Biden has been a miserable candidate this year. But if you’re old enough to have lived through his other unsuccessful runs for President, you know that isn’t news. He’s just a bad, probably also outdated, candidate. But, it’s true he is a nice guy.

At the moment, this is lining up as a successful re-election for Trump. But fear not! There still are other factors that aren’t yet in play.

First, he isn’t one-on-one with anyone yet and that will change the dynamic. Second, he won the presidency by not too many votes, but enough to take three key electoral states to win. How he does in those states this time around is an unknown. The economy still hasn’t lifted those areas and, like New Hampshire and other states, there are still big pockets where the economy has not helped the middle class. At all.

Tax cuts benefiting the wealthiest have fueled the economy and Trump can applaud how well 401k’s are doing but only for those who have them, and much of the America overlooked for so long doesn’t have them, or health care.

Trump is fighting like always, though. He knows, for example, that he doesn’t have to win the African American vote, he just needs to get a few more percentage points to make a big difference. He, or his people, are as cagey on that as always.

So, it’s not over yet – it’s really just begun but you cannot take your eye off the ball.


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The State of the Union is, fill in the blank

2/5/2020

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The state of our union is, well, fill in the blank. If you’re a Trump supporter things are great and if you’re not our democracy is being threatened.

From President Trump’s (intentional?) non-shake of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s hand, to her skipping announcing, “It is my high privilege and distinct honor of presenting to you the President of the United States“ to her ripping up his speech as he bathed in the partisan applause after he finished.

In typical polarized fashion, if you saw Trump not shake Pelosi’s hand and support Trump you saw it as a deserved snub and insult. After all, she just led the effort to impeach him. Or he may just have been demonstrating his germ issue and well known aversion to shaking hands.

When Pelosi skipped the traditional intro and you support her, you think he deserved it or, if you support him, that he just began his speech before she could get out the words, or she intentionally was dissing the President.

Trump should not have left her hand unshaken and she never should have ripped up the speech.

Indeed, we are one mucked up country.

Not to mention the Democrats kicked off the week with a disaster in Iowa where we still don’t have the final results (at least at this writing). And, what results we have show Joe Biden lagging in fourth place. Then again, that may be his best Iowa finish in three tries – so glass half full?

Trump’s speech included more exaggerations and lies than it did facts, and still he was interrupted mostly by Republicans for applause numerous times. Pelosi and others in her party were shown shaking their heads, slumping and basically ticked off by what they were hearing. Trump called for action on controlling prices for  prescription drugs and a bunch of Democrats stood holding up three fingers, signifying HR 3, a House-passed bill, to do just that and that has not been taken up in the Republican-controlled Senate.

A Medal of Freedom was awarded to conservative firebrand Rush Limbaugh, recently diagnosed with an aggressive cancer, and it was hung around his neck on the spot. Instant highest honor the country can give a civilian!! A scholarship that “just became available” was given to a young African American girl, again live on the new reality show, “This is Just One Long Campaign Commercial.” To top it off a 100-year old Tuskegee Airman was promoted to brigadier general live on the air. And, a decorated active duty soldier was reunited with his family as he came out from behind the doorway to surprise his wife and kids.

Reality TV meet the State of the Union.

Impeachment was never mentioned but today Trump likely will be acquitted of impeachment articles passed by the Democratic House and he will witness Republican senators declare the charges not worthy of removal from office but with many admitting, in true Lou Costello fashion, that he did a bad, bad thing but he learned his lesson  (like him or not, have you ever witnessed him learning a lesson?).

What would you call the state of the union?


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    B. Jay Cooper

    B. Jay is a former deputy White House press secretary to Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He also headed the communications offices at the Republican National Committee, U.S. Department of Commerce, and Yale University. He is a former reporter and is the retired deputy managing director of APCO Worldwide's Washington, D.C., office.
    He is the father of three daughters and grandfather of five boys and one girl. He lives in Marion, Mass.

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