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The Screaming Moderate

Chickens might be coming home

1/11/2016

2 Comments

 
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The chickens are coming home to roost in American politics.

Republicans for years built a political base with folks of the very right-leaning belief. Over the last couple of decades, that right has gone even right-er and birthed movements like the Tea Party and elected people like Sen. Ted Cruz who preferred shutting down the government to finding a compromise even with his own party.

Democrats have always had a quite liberal base. That base hasn’t been much happier with its elected officials over the years.
As the two parties played to their bases, the country has become more and more polarized.

Thus, today we have presidential wannabes like Cruz and Vermont’s self-described “Democratic Socialist” Bernie Sanders. So, what if…

…Bernie wins Iowa (not such a long shot anymore) AND New Hampshire, the first two primaries of the year. How does that change the expectation of a Hillary coronation? Twin wins would give Bernie credibility and momentum – key in primaries.

On the GOP side, If Cruz wins Iowa, as it appears, and Trump wins New Hampshire, as it appears, we potentially could wind up in November with a Democratic –Socialist running against an extreme right wing nut.

What does the great middle of the American voting spectrum do then? Stay home? Then we wind up with Sanders or, say, Cruz and as president??

For many years each party has teased its base with promising things it would do to make them happy  - and then not do what they promised. This is a political cycle where it’s been proven anything can happen. So, Hillary could lose the nomination and, if Republicans knock out more moderate candidates like Bush or Kasich early, Cruz could pull it off.
It could happen. Liberals will be thrilled with Bernie as their candidate and right wingers would be ecstatic with Cruz.  

Does it open a real opportunity for a third party? Maybe. Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb is making noises about running third party as is former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Given the choice of Sanders v. Cruz, either might be an appealing compromise.


2 Comments
Larz Neilson
1/11/2016 12:03:40 pm

A three-way guarantees a screwy result. The winner is probably saddled with criticism that he did not carry a majority. That's how we got such a wonderful governor here in Maine. The 3-ball candidate promised to pull out if it became clear that he couldn't win. Well, he did, but so late that we ended up with four more years of LePage.

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B. Jay
1/11/2016 01:24:16 pm

Lars, I hear ya but two things: 1) if the premise I lay out were to happen, we'd have extremes on either side so the Great Middle could win. Not like having Clinton v 41 v Perot. And remember, 2, in that election we got Clinton who, arguably, had a successful presidency and he won with less than 50%.

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    B. Jay Cooper

    B. Jay is a former deputy White House press secretary to Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He also headed the communications offices at the Republican National Committee, U.S. Department of Commerce, and Yale University. He is a former reporter and is the retired deputy managing director of APCO Worldwide's Washington, D.C., office.
    He is the father of three daughters and grandfather of five boys and one girl. He lives in Marion, Mass.

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