The polls change only on the margins but no big shakeup. (This just in: a new CNN poll puts Trump at 40 percent nationally. National polls don’t mean much right now though.). The GOP front runner is beginning to look even more like a politician (he spent the night in a Holiday Inn! In Iowa! And then went to church!!!).
The Number Two is attacking the number one, gone is the bromance they were enjoying a few weeks ago. The “establishment” candidates are attacking – each other so no one is making a big move. The “establishment” (whoever it is) is angry over the establishment candidates standing in a circle and shooting, killing off chances to take over the Two Big No-Nos in their minds.
Over on the other side, Hillary is still in the lead but those dynamics likely will change if Bernie wins Iowa on top of likely winning New Hampshire. Of course, then the media class flashes an even brighter light on what his policies would mean in dollars, even if he could get them through a Congress not inclined his way. Hillary (who really needs to stop yelling in TV forums. That is not strength.) is plodding and attacking without saying she’s attacking (because Democrats just are NOT acting like those nasty Republicans) is looking like her campaign might go the way of her last campaign, losing to someone more liberal.
So, nothing much has changed. And nothing will until, I believe, votes are actually cast.
If Trump can get his voters to the caucus maybe he can win Iowa. I’m going to predict he will not. Which means Cruz – who no one in the party likes – likely wins. But then he goes to New Hampshire where likely he does not. Kasich is making a move there, picking up endorsements, doing the requisite town meetings, making sense. He’s making his move which could be what he needs to become the “establishment” candidate going forward. That happens if he comes in second. He doesn’t need to win. Which could coalesce all those “establishment” votes behind him. Which could push him into the first tier. I’m going to predict that’s what’s going to happen because I can’t bear to predict Trump or Cruz will be the GOP candidate. And if it happens, I still won’t accept it.
As Trump said, he could start shooting people in Times Square and not lose support. A crude and horrible way to put it, especially in these days of mass shootings, but, so far, he hasn’t lost any votes and he has done the equivalent of shooting people by taking shots at women, Hispanics, Muslims, Megyn Kelly and so many others. (Mr. Bloomberg, you’re next!).
I cannot believe Trump or Cruz will be the candidate. Therefore I shall remain in denial and disbelief until and unless that happens. Denial is no longer just a river in Egypt.