• Home
  • Blog
  • Contact
The Screaming Moderate

Where the election (might) stand

8/5/2020

3 Comments

 
If you try to analyze the Electoral College numbers to see where the presidential race stands, well, you could go blind. I tried. Here’s what I learned.

I reviewed a state-by-state poll review by The New York Times this week. The Times used at least two state polls from each state. Some were more than a week or two old. But, if you take those polls as they existed and averaged them, Vice President Joe Biden wins the Electoral College with 373 votes. That, though, includes states where the compilations show him with large leads (for example New York where he registers 57 percent of the vote) to states where he has tiny leads (for example North Carolina where he leads by a single point).

If you subtract out the close states (Texas, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Nevada), Biden’s electoral count drops but still wins at 279 votes (270 are needed).

If you just subtract the three close states President Trump won four years ago, those states credited him with winning the election for him (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) and assume Trump wins then again, Biden still wins with 333 electoral votes.

As you can see, you can go blind. And, in any event, those polls were good for when they were taken. Which means they matter not.

We read and hear lots of analysis from the pundits and alleged experts, most of them claiming Biden is way ahead.


Allan Lichtman, a professor who is perfect in his predictions of the presidential election for 40 years (yes, including Trump’s win in 2016 and predicting his eventual impeachment), also is predicting Biden wins based on Lichtman’s 13 keys to a presidential election.

The bottom line is, who knows? Well, except maybe for Lichtman based on his track record.

Trump seems to be running with basically the same strategy he used four years ago: divide and conquer. Many people look at the Trump strategy and try to figure out how he can win since he’s done nothing to expand his base and most everything to decrease the voters who were attracted to him four years ago, at least those who aren’t really his true-blue base but voted for hm.

Every day we watch Trump do things like embrace the Confederate flag; offer good wishes to a friend accused of serving up underage girls to Jeffrey Epstein while refusing to say positive things about the racial justice icon, recently deceased John Lewis; clear Lafayette Park of protestors so he could pose with an upside down Bible in front of the “church of presidents;” continuously praise his administration's work on the coronavirus as the best in the world, etc. etc. Why? I assume because he knows his best path to victory in November is to repeat his successes of 2016, which means getting his base out to vote.

Don’t say it can’t work, because it did four years ago.

Personally, based on his behavior in office and his mishandling of the coronavirus, I think he’s pushed away enough of those “swing voters” he attracted four years ago to make a difference. Older voters aren’t happy largely because they are the most directly affected by the virus. Trump’s definition of who make up populations in the suburbs feels outdated so his solicitation for votes there seems misdirected.

But, remember, there is another candidate who so far has done basically nothing to achieve his front-runner status. Joe Biden is a good guy – that’s his image and it’s his image because he is a nice guy, he earned that reputation. Most everyone who’s ever met or dealt with him will tell you that. If anyone is the anti-Trump, it is Joe Biden.

But is it enough to be the guy running against Trump to actually win? Probably not so Joe will need to continue unveiling policies, announcing what he would do in addition to talking about what he would un-do if he defeats Trump.

While the election is “only” 90 days away, it is 90 days away. There’s plenty of time for turns and twists both from Trump (guaranteed) and Biden (pretty much guaranteed too based on his patterns over his career).

Next big public decision for Biden is to pick his running mate – who he assured the country will be a woman.

There are pluses and minuses for each of the women rumored to be on his final list. I subscribe to the theory that he needs to choose the woman who, if necessary (and because of Biden’s age it is a big consideration), can truly take over if she has to because of incapacitation to Biden. Who is the woman who can be empathetic, lead the country out of the disappointment of a President they elected who can’t finish his term and be the calm, decisive President needed in such times (Gerald Ford anyone?).

Those are my two cents which tomorrow will be worth less than two cents.

Much as those polls I cited above.


3 Comments
David Prosperi
8/5/2020 10:46:24 am

I read somewhere that Trump’s research shows him winning by a large margin with voters who will go to the polls on Election Day, and losing by a larger margin to those who will vote by mail.

Reply
B. Jay link
8/5/2020 11:04:11 am

Hadn't seen that but makes perfect sense.

Reply
Barie carmichael
8/5/2020 03:13:37 pm

My biggest concern is his meddling with USPS. Plausible scenario: no decision until weeks after election count and likely trump legal action challenging legitimacy of mailed in ballots a la gore/bush chads.

Reply



Leave a Reply.

    RSS Feed

     
    Follow @bjaycooper

    Archives

    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013

    B. Jay Cooper

    B. Jay is a former deputy White House press secretary to Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He also headed the communications offices at the Republican National Committee, U.S. Department of Commerce, and Yale University. He is a former reporter and is the retired deputy managing director of APCO Worldwide's Washington, D.C., office.
    He is the father of three daughters and grandfather of five boys and one girl. He lives in Marion, Mass.

powered by bjaycooper.com