The Screaming Moderate

The corona virus is not Red or Blue

3/27/2020

I was going to post about my nearing the age of 70 at a time when doctors are making life and death decisions partly based on age. But then I read this in today’s Washington Post:

““Behind the scenes, business leaders have lobbied (President) Trump not to invoke the (Defense Protection Act) and conservative advisers have warned the president that doing so would draw a backlash and could cut into his argument of running against socialism in the fall, said two administration officials.” (emphasis added)

Translation: Don’t use government (taxpayer) money to save (taxpayer) lives because it’ll take away your political argument that Democrats are “socialists.”

I imagine, too, those people advising him that way would like to focus the health efforts only in areas where Republicans dominate (OK, that's a horrible thing to say. I should not have said it).

The President will spend time tomorrow traveling to Norfolk, Virginia, to watch the U.S. naval ship Comfort as it starts its voyage to New York City to serve as a backup medical outlet to the health care workers who are risking their lives and working too many hours to try saving patients' lives. That’s what this president will do in the time of crisis. He’s going to send a ship that he said a week ago was already on its way, on its way.

I’ve had a least two Trump supporters in the last few days tell me virus isn't his fault, yet he’s “doing a good job.” They have that half right.

I’ve been a Trump critic sine the day he rode down the escalator in Trump Tower to announce his candidacy. I’ve always respected, I hope, anyone who disagrees with me. But since this man became President he has acted as if he’s the country's CEO. He’s supposed to be a servant of the people, not the other way around.

And we don’t need a CEO in the Oval Office, We need a President. There is a huge difference. (one is that a CEO's goal is to make a profit; a president's role is to provide for the health of safety of the citizens. Doing that a does not waste money.)

We know the President cannot snap his fingers and make ventilators appear, any more that an auto factory can snap its fingers and immediately be a ventilator factory. But the President can order them to make the transformation rather than take their time on a “volunteer” basis. The New York Times reports this morning that the government balked when it was told it would cost $1 billion to order enough ventilators, though a decision still hasn’t been made.

The President, in a Fox News (of course), interview last night said, “people want to go back to work, I’m hearing that loud and clear…Our country is based on that…”

Our country is not based on that. It’s based on freedom. It’s based on “we the people” not “I the President.” The President of the United States’ job is to protect the health and safety of the American people. All of us.

He also said, “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes and they’ll have two ventilators. All of a sudden they’re saying ‘can you order 30,000 ventilators?'”

Yes Dr. Trump, that’s because there’s a damn corona virus killing people all over the world. Ventilators can save lives.

There is no vaccine or treatment yet for this virus. People will die before either can be developed.Ventilators will save some of their lives. If the ventilators become surplus after the pandemic disappears, fabulous they’ve done their jobs.

If they are never needed again, the investment was well worth it. It will have made that CEO "profit" in the form of human beings who did not die.

Trump also this week set a target of Easter to get “America opened again.” He said it would be beautiful to see packed churches on Easter. I’m not sure how his religious followers feel about that but I can tell you if that happens, there will be a lot of very sick people within 14 days after Easter. (No, I’m not a doctor, but I feel confident in that prediction … and I hope I’m wrong.)

Apparently Trump’s business advisors are telling him not to be a “socialist” and give even more money to help save lives. Apparently those same people are saying the economy needs to get back on track sooner than later. Or, they say, the President is hurting his chances of re-election.

The President, of course, doesn’t look to me for political advice but I feel pretty safe in saying: Forget the politics. The road to re-election is to get us – all of us - through this ordeal with as few lives lost as possible.

And making sure even those of us who are over or nearing 70 survive.

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Truth in the eye of a storm

3/20/2020

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It’s tradition that when in the midst of a crisis – war, famine, pandemic – one holds back on any criticism of the President to allow good vibes and for him to lead us out of the problem.

President Trump doesn’t observe such traditions – as he points fingers at the “Chinese virus,” as he repeatedly exaggerates and lies during briefings which are supposed to help calm the populace.

He actually squandered the right to a “criticism recess,” during his first three and a half years as President. That’s when a President is supposed to be earning credibility so he has it – just for this purpose! We need to believe someone and the President should be that someone. We are not facing a political issue. We are in the middle of a pandemic.

The brief respite, at Monday’s news briefing, threw everyone off their seats as he appeared to be the calm, responsive President we all need in this time of anxiety, uncertainty and fear.

That lasted a day.

He is back to exaggerating, lying and more. And he adds to the anxiety we all are feeling. You may have noticed that the last few days neither Anthony Fauci, the world’s leading expert on infectious diseases, and the head of the Center for Disease Control have been absent from the daily briefings.

Why have they been missing? I don’t know but I think a possibility is that they know they’d have to, in real time, correct the President and the President doesn’t like being corrected. So he excluded them. I am totally guessing on that. Or as the President would say, “That’s why they haven’t been here and then again, maybe not.”

Yesterday Trump glowingly announced a new drug was developed and approved at record speed by the Federal Food and Drug Administration(FDA) that could significantly help us face down this pandemic. The truth? The opposite, which was diplomatically explained literally a minute later, when the FDA head talked right after the president and explained the drug at issue was developed and is in use for another disease (malaria) but seems to be able to help coronavirus victims. So, despite the president saying it was available by prescription, it isn’t for coronavirus because it’s still being tested for that use to make sure it doesn’t do more harm than good. That's what the FDA does, makes sure drugs are safe and do good, not harm.

Repeat: The President of the United States proclaimed a new drug had been approved by the FDA that can significantly help fight this pandemic. Or course then he added, “and maybe not.” Thus, he can later say he did not lie. But he did carnival bark (a new phrase I just coined, or maybe not).

The President is better off standing to the side because then he can bathe in the praise from his loyal Vice President who precedes every step of progress with “as the President directed,” “as the President instructed,” and “thanks to the President’s great leadership.’

If you think Donald Trump is sitting in meetings coming up with ideas on this pandemic and directing their implementation in this crisis --- well, MAGA to you.

If you watch the President closely in those briefings you can see his eyes darting to the press as accolades are piled on him by his minions to try to spot them admiringly looking at him. Or, you can believe the President when he says, as he did yesterday, “”And you know what? Someday, hopefully in five years, I won’t be here and that will be fine. I will have done, I think, a great job.” Etc. Etc and thank you Lord Trump.

Most of those people standing behind Trump at the briefings, especially Fauci when he attends and Dr. Deborah Birx -- they are smart, experienced and straight talkers. Let them talk, Mr. President. You’ll get more credit. And, the country will be better informed.

Maybe when the President calls it the “Chinese Virus” he isn’t being racist. But he is being Donald Trump who brands everything and everybody for his own political purposes (right, Sleepy Joe? Crazy Hillary?). This isn’t the time for branding, boasting or exaggeration.

That reporter he called on from One America News? She asked whether “Chinese food” was a racist phrase because Trump is called by some racist for using “Chinese virus?” That little disgusting episode, where Trump took off on the media, was like Khrushchev calling on Pravda to ask a question. “You’ll remember, sir, we went over this question and answer before? And if we didn't, make it up. It's cool.”

Those Navy medical ships he ordered to New York and California to help out? One is in for repairs, and has been. Both need to be outfitted for this purpose and it takes some days to get the ships to their destinations. They aren’t “on their way,” Mr. President. Those cruise ships the owner volunteered? They are cruise ships, not hospital ships and, too, need to be outfitted and staffed by medical professionals, who are falling into short supply.

And outfitting them? That means hospital masks and gowns that hospitals are pleading for even now. That defense emergency bill the President invoked but said he hasn’t used yet and governors should be ordering the supplies themselves?? The governor of Massachusetts told the President that each time his people call to order something, they run in to federal orders ahead and get stalled. Which is it?

Remember when the Administration said one million tests would be available in days and four million the following week? Where are they?

The President is berating the press because he feels he doesn’t get enough credit for, months ago, closing our border to Chinese travelers because of the flu. He says it would be “much worse” if he hadn’t done that. Well, Mr. President this is getting much worse and thanks for blocking the Chinese a few months ago it did help. It didn’t stop it, though. There is much more to be done.

And as for your “knowing” it was a pandemic before it was proclaimed a pandemic by the World Health Organization? There are no words except "bull ... shit" to respond to that.

The media makes mistakes, no doubt about. But the mainstream media does not make mistakes on purpose. The President flat out lies. Even now. When people are dying.

When I worked in the White House press shop my boss told his staff regularly, “if the Washington Post is saying it happened, believe it. Even if our own people are denying it.”

Truth is what wins out always and the credibility in the time of crisis is the most valuable thing a public official owns.

Unfortunately, our President is bankrupt on both counts.

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Trump, and the country, in crisis

3/13/2020

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For some years now, many of us have been saying the Emperor has no clothes. Wednesday night, when he appeared live from the Oval Office, which, prior to this situation was something that signaled a very important presidential message to the country, President Trump appeared rhetorically naked.

To some of us, that was no surprise. But what is a bit surprising is:

Immediately after he signed off, even Trump knew he messed up by ad libbing (incorrectly) a couple of facts about his own program to protect the country sending the worldwide markets into a historic decline and confusing leaders of other countries who were not warned about what Trump was (intending) to say
His incoming chief of staff, Mark Meadows, left a self-imposed 14-day quarantine for the coronavirus to attend an Oval Office meeting, exposing the President, Vice President, Prime Minister of Ireland and other senior U.S. and Irish officials to his possible virus
The President claims he has not been tested for the disease despite being in close proximity to at least three people who have been exposed to it and at least one who has the virus. (Actually, I view it as irresponsible for the President of the United States not to be tested in this situation. Indeed he is, the Leader of the Free World.)
When the “adults” were called in to the room prior to the speech to write and choreograph it, in marched Jared Kushner, the President’s son-in-law and a senior advisor, putting aside his other duties (like negotiating Middle East peace and effectively running the President’s re-election campaign and other things), to join with Steven Miller, whose only solution to any problem is to stop folks from other country’s coming here. Neither of them is a virus or health expert. And in that speech, it showed.
Many law enforcement agencies, when they hold a press conference to announce a major bust, crowd others involved behind the chief of police. Why, I don’t really know but assume its to at least optically share the credit. Vice President Pence does the same thing when he holds his near-daily coronavirus briefings. At the same time, the experts behind him are telling us to keep six-feet between ourselves to protect against getting the virus. Which is it?

Yes, we should have known from the get-go that this speech would fail. Before he uttered a word, we could see the Leader of the Free World literally twiddling his thumbs, as he did throughout the speech, obviously nervous because he knows he is incapable of delivering empathy or important, factual information to the country, too afraid he'll be blamed.

In short, those 10 minutes exposed Trump and his trusted aides as totally incompetent. And people are dying. (For those who right now are saying “yea, but what about Obama,” I don’t particularly care today what Obama did wrong or right. He’s not the President. Trump is.)

Even Vice President Pence, assigned to coordinate the virus response effort, has to begin every briefing with five minutes telling us how Trump directed this and ordered that while, frankly, we don’t care ... just tell us what you’re doing to protect us, not Trump. Trump’s the President. He’ll get the credit or the blame for any situation that he’s responsible for. That goes with the job.

During that 10-minute address to the nation, Trump defaulted to his primary lines of defense and attack – lie and blame others for the virus. In fact, in the middle of the biggest non-self-inflicted crisis of his presidency, Trump, promising to take immediate action to stimulate the economy and maybe even fight the virus, has not spoken to the Speaker of the House, the main player in coming up with such a package. Nor has he, reportedly, since the impeachment. That he has totally delegated to his Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin – who knew we’d be happy with Mnuchin being in charge?

And what’s the President’s response to the biggest drop in the stock market since the 1980s? Blame the Fed. Blame the Democrats. Blame the media.

To my Trump supporter friends, I truly hope that you get, now, that this crisis was not created by the media or is a “hoax” by the Democrats and that this truly is a life-or-death situation. Yes, we’re reading worst-case scenario op-eds and hearing similar interviews from folks who truly are experts in this field. Thanks to them -- because while we shouldn’t be panicking, we also deserve to know what we may be facing in the future, and be grateful if we don’t.

In crisis communications, the first to-do is to choose a credible spokesman so your constituencies can trust what they hear. The second is to be transparent in what you’re saying – so people can make informed decisions about their well-being.

To that end, thank you to a Denizen of the Deep State, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who wasn’t assigned that role but comes to it naturally because he indeed is an expert in viruses and respected the world over.

We need those Deep Staters to lead us out of this crisis, so we can be grateful while the President sits there and twiddles his thumbs.

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Wonder of Wonder, Miracle of Miracles...

3/4/2020

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Former Vice President Joe Biden obviously had a Super Tuesday and a Very Excellent Wednesday morning when former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination. Plus Bloomberg is not taking his ball and going home but is promising to spend millions of his personal fortune to defeat Donald Trump.

Some of Biden’s wins were not major surprises but some were. He didn’t campaign in either Sen. Amy Klobacher’s backyard of Minnesota or Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s Massachusetts, but he won both states. Warren finished a bad third in Massachusetts and while she says she’ll continue in the race, that’s unlikely to last for long.

Biden being able to quickly get former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Klobachar to endorse him went a long way to helping bring unity to the Democratic Party, or at least to a good chunk of the party. Warren will be under great pressure to get out, and my guess is she will soon – once she’s able to have talks with the Biden camp about her role going forward in both creating the party platform and Biden’s presidency, should he win. (If you can't win your own state, it's unlikely you'd be named the vice presidential candidate.)

That will leave, basically, only Sen. Bernie Sanders in the race. And my guess is, as he did four years ago, he will continue his march pretty much to the Democratic convention. Remember, he is not a Democrat so, despite his claims to the contrary, he really isn’t here to unify the Democratic Party.

If he went another week or two, and Biden continues to beat him, Sanders should get out. At the moment he has sufficient support to stay in.

But, consider the impact it would have if Sanders immediately announced he’s “suspending” his campaign and endorsed Biden. Biden’s support plus whatever backing Sanders could transfer to him would be a major step in defeating Trump. Don’t hold your breath.

Meanwhile Trump is tweeting how Warren should get out of the race because she’s hurting Sanders. So, really, who do you think Trump wants to run against? He’s always feared Biden, with Biden’s warts and all.

And the message millions of voters sent yesterday, many deciding in the final hours before Super Tuesday, they too think Biden is the best option to beat Trump.

One more thing about Sanders, to see how the tide is changing. He is losing support and, despite his claims that he will get turnout to increase, younger voters were not turning out yesterday. And, Sanders was getting lower totals in states, including his home of Vermont.

He has a ceiling on support he can attract and he’s likely not just reached it, but is losing some of it.

It ain’t over, of course. But it would be something if Warren drops out and, Sanders does the best thing he can do which is to stop splintering the electorate and dropping out to support Biden.

Unlikely? Yes, but just a few days ago you wouldn’t have believed Biden’s comeback (miracle?) either.

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South Carolina truly is a make-or-break state

2/27/2020

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Every presidential primary season there seems to be about 48 moments that the media play up a particular state as make or break time. This year, they may be right.

Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders is the hot candidate of the moment having won two and basically tying the other primary, so far. Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg was always hovering around, spending hundreds of millions on advertising dollars but not entering a primary until Super Tuesday which is next week. He figured by then a bunch of the candidates would have flamed out and he would be poised to have a super Super Tuesday.

What Bloomberg apparently didn’t plan on was performing not just horribly in the debates but demonstrating his elitism, which is a turnoff to nearly all voters.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, having done what he always has done in president primary seasons not only hasn’t won a primary but didn’t finish in the top tier. This, apparently, was just another presidential contest Biden would lose.

But this primary is different.

Not only does Sanders scare nearly everyone on the under ticket in the Democratic Party, he isn’t even a Democrat yet he wants already to change the rules so that if he survives with a plurality of delegates, the convention should choose him. That is not what the rules say.

Lord, how did things get so mucked up for a party that seemed to be on its way to defeating an incumbent president who, for most of his presidency, has been disliked by a majority of Americans? And who is incapable of reassuring the country we’ll be okay in the face of the coronavirus? Even at that moment, the vice president and others stood in front of a national audience to reassure us about the government's preparedness for the virus they spent almost as much time praising the President more than they talked about the potential emergency facing the country. And Trump stood enjoying the praise. As he always does. Whether warranted or not.

But, this year is going to be different, I think. While my predictions are worth not even as much as a professional pundit’s, I predict Biden will not just win in South Carolina Saturday, but will win by double digits so that it is a clear win – and in the first state where a majority of Democratic primary voters are African Americans, a key constituency for November. That will re-energize his campaign.

Biden not only traditionally performs horribly in primaries, he has put in mostly disappointing “debate” performances. That’s not his forte, trying to get in a word among so many others on the stage. He truly is a gentleman who not only tries to follow the rules but typically doesn’t put up much of a fight about it.

Until Tuesday, that is. For a moment, Biden flashed a bit of anger, seasoned with a sense of humor (it was his Catholic upbringing that makes him follow the rules, he said).

Biden is good at (and genuine about) making a connection with a voter, which means the town meeting format plays more to his strengths. A moment from last night’s Biden town hall on CNN has gone viral because of the genuine emotions Biden displayed in his answer to a religious question. And he did it without preaching but by just relating.

Biden knows his personal legacy is at stake – as well as the future of the country. Imagine a Trump presidency with a Republican Senate and House.

So, I predict a Biden win but that won’t be enough. Biden also is low on cash and Super Tuesday will be just a few days away. Bloomberg has been spending in those states, heavily, for a long time, and each of his other opponents has more money than Biden does. Well, maybe except for Tulsi Gabbard who not only is still in the race but who surprisingly is in the race at all. One must wonder why she’s there but that’s a topic for another day.

Joe needs money. But he’ll get it, or at least enough, as the party elders are near panic about Sanders leading them into a battle in November that likely would mean a loss to Trump, and also likely losses down ticket. Re-energizing his campaign also means he likely will increase his troops of desperately needed volunteers for the ground game in the primaries.

I would hope that if Biden puts on a strong enough display, it will launch him into Super Tuesday after which, if he performs well, many of the more moderate candidates would start to drop out, allowing Biden to pick up their voters.

Surprisingly, despite having had a large and the most diverse bunch of candidates ever, the Democratic Party has also had a field of bad candidates. But the field is loaded with men and women who not only can fill out a Biden presidency quite capably but also can continue to train for future presidential runs.

Biden likely, despite what he says, would serve only one term, get the country back on an even-er keel, re-establish our necessary leadership on the world stage and allow each of us to go to bed not worried about what we’ll be waking up to.

Our collective blood pressures would go down.

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There's the war of attrition..but don't forget the Big War

2/20/2020

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The Democrats had a very lively almost entertaining debate last night with plenty of sub-plots. Still, it wasn’t hard to determine the candidate who stood out: Donald Trump.

Trump stood out because the six Democrats on stage seemed more focused on tearing each other down rather than focusing on Trump. In fact, the Trump campaign I’m sure got a few video clips they can use in their effective online campaign. Probably already running.

I didn't count but his name wasn't mentioned often.

If any of the Democrats on stage gained or at least didn't lose, it was Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is leading the polls at the moment. Bernie sat happily (if one could tell when Bernie is happy) watching his opponents attack each other while he just fell back on the same diatribes he’s been spouting for years (the 1 percent, billionaires, capitalism and the working men and women, health care for all, pay off tuition debt). Put a nickel in any of us who pay attention and we can probably recite back all of Bernie’s talking points, almost verbatim.

Still, no one really landed a glove on him so he escapes with his lead. The only question is has he hit his ceiling in votes?

From the first minute it appeared Trump would be the focus when Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren quoted a negative statement about women and pulled off the punchline – it wasn’t a quote from Trump but from Michael Bloomberg, the first shot he’s taken in a debate in many years. And it showed.

Bloomberg took a lot of hits, many deserved, but for most of the debate he looked like a spoiled rich kid who wondered why he had to be there and I’d agree.

I’m not sure why he felt the need to be on the stage when he’s spending tens of millions of dollars showing ads in which he looks strong. ads that already have shot him up to second or third in the polls. He did not show that strong leader trait for most of last night. And when he tried, he didn’t pull them off (like, he doesn’t go to Turbo Tax for his taxes to get done. Uh, we knew that Mike but I’m guessing millions took it as you’re rich and they’re not. We knew that that too.)

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar followed up her best debate performance with maybe her worst as the most outstanding memory of her from this debate was her arguing with her stage neighbor – former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigeg – who may look too young but still came across more often as the adult on the stage. He may be the only one who doesn’t scream when he talks, thank goodness. Meantime, Sen. Klobuchar didn't help herself at all last night and showed she angers quickly. One can imagine from her performance that the knock on her that she mismanges her staff probably are true.

Former Vice President Joe Biden had another so-so debate. He wasn’t heard from for about 30 minutes and I nearly forgot that he was on stage. He’s still arguing thought that he’s been in government a long time, knows other countries’ leaders by their first names and he can be president from Day One. (Uh, we know that but what kind of president will you be? And I really like him.)

Still there were no haymakers landing on President Trump. The Democrats instead stood in a circle and fired their guns. That may win the war of attrition but it won’t win in November.

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Hullabaloos everywhere

2/13/2020

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Watching the TV news or reading the print headlines, there are two huge hullabaloos taking place right now.

One, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, they say, is leading the race to be the Democratic presidential nominee and the other is that President Donald Trump is trampling on the Constitution and (more) political norms.

First, Sen. Sanders: If you look at the delegate counts right now, after two tiny states have voted, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg is leading by one delegate. The popular vote, while interesting, doesn’t matter because that’s not how the Iowa caucuses assign delegates won.

In New Hampshire, which neighbors Sanders’ Vermont, the senator won the popular vote by about 1.5 percentage points, far from the 22 points he won by four years ago. I think the difference tells you more about how disliked Hillary Clinton was than how popular Sanders was. He indeed was facing 7 challengers this year but he dropped back to what many consider his ceiling in votes. General consensus is that he has a base of about 25 percent of the Democratic primary voters, which is where he’s been most of the time in polls. In a field of even eight, that’s a good amount but it can't be called outdistancing all his opponents.

But to call Sanders the front runner as of today is a bit far off the actual numbers. That’s not to say he isn’t a hot candidate. He is. But he’s not, yet, drawing from a broad swath of Democrats. It may show us, though, how important positive media coverage is especially in a primary if one candidate is continuously hawked as the front-runner.

We’ll see.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is in a hole, obviously, but his people must have always known he would be. He never has done well in primaries or in Iowa and he may continue that bad streak this year. He definitely needs to finish first or second in Nevada and first in South Carolina to be called anything close to a front-runner. Or even a contender.

Also, Sanders is no Donald Trump, but in one sense he may be. Trump took over the GOP four years ago and he was definitely an outsider with no known base to draw from. Now, he’s the GOP leader because he’s President and because nearly every elected Republican is scared to death of him. Sanders is not even a registered Democrat and refuses to register as one even as he criticizes the party for allegedly opposing him as the candidate (uh, calling yourself a Democratic Socialist probably isn’t the best label against Trump, but at least it’s honest).

In any event, in that sense Bernie is a Trump -- an outsider trying to take over the party. Trump succeeded. Will Sanders?

Which leads us to Trump’s hullabaloo.

He barely took a breath from being acquitted of the impeachment charges (thanks to a nearly unanimous GOP vote in the Senate). And he began his revenge, firing people, pulling federal job nominations away from people, using his might to try to get a reduced sentence for Roger Stone (well, a reduced recommendation, sort of. It’s up to the judge to declare a sentence), he’s bringing back allies to the White House (the highly partisan Trump-backer Cong. Mark Meadows, most likely, and this morning it’s reported that Hope Hicks is making a return engagement).

On Stone, the sentence recommendation, according to many experts, was harsh but it’s what the prosecutors recommended after, supposedly, running it up their chain of command at the Justice Department as is the rule. As soon as their superiors, after a presidential tweet, distanced themselves and entered a no recommendation to the court, the four prosecutors pulled their names off the case, and, further, one resigned from the department. None, yet, has explained his or her reasons.

Trump dismissed these prosecutors because in his transactional and vengeful mind, they were part of Bob Mueller’s team and, therefore, tainted by politics. His supporters, elected and average man and woman, of course, take up that talking point immediately because they indeed believe there is a “deep state” against Trump.

He also corrals all his “opponents” in DC into “the swamp” that he claims to be draining. He isn’t. He is simply removing anyone who opposes him and calls them swamp creatures while replacing them with his own swamp dwellers.

With Trump there is always an enemy, has to be for his form of leadership to work, and he is still using Mueller/his team and the Clintons.

Far more importantly, he is learning that he can use his position and power to do favors for his compadres right out in the open, and he pays no price whatsoever. So, why not push the envelope further?

And he will. Will anyone in power push back?

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Political season is heating up

2/10/2020

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I’ve always promoted the strategy that Democrats should, early, pick a presidential nominee, get behind him or her, and get their coalition together in a force to oppose Donald Trump, who is becoming a more formidable foe than some anticipated. Getting everyone on board early, I theorized, would avoid splitting votes among a myriad of candidates and end the infighting over ideology when the main goal is to beat Donald Trump.

I’ve always thought, too, that Joe Biden was the right candidate because he would be the most effective transition president away from Trump and toward, well, normal.

I still believe in that strategy but it’s complicated now by the non-results in Iowa and the likely results in New Hampshire – Sen. Bernie Sanders and Mayor Pete likely leading the way with possibly Sen. Elizabeth Warren third. Before Pete caught fire, Biden could have finished his fourth in Iowa and even New Hampshire, where he could honestly point to two neighboring state U.S. Senators leading the way and being too much to overcome. But that strategy is gone.

The press is onto Mayor Pete being the outsider this time, and they do love that narrative. Uh, until the next one comes along.

Now, IF Biden can hang in there until South Carolina, where the Democratic base is a more mixed demographic, he still will have an uphill battle. His funders, I doubt, will stay with him that long.

So, assuming Biden drops out at some point, who is the favorite for the nomination? Probably the other mayor, Mike Bloomberg. I have my reasons for thinking he can’t win but with the Democratic base looking at a choice of Bernie, Pete or Mike, I have a feeling I know where they’re going. It’s not so much that Democrats don’t like Bernie it’s that they just don’t think he can win. And, don’t lose touch with the fact that Bernie is not a Democrat and that doesn’t sit well either.

If my little scenario ever played out, that doesn’t make Mayor Mike a better opponent for Trump – Bloomberg brings along his own baggage with minority voters and others.

But, they are probably more overcome-able than having a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist or a 37-year old who, while impressive so far, does not have sufficient experience to be President (I know, look who’s President now). Plus, who then would Mayor Pete pick as a running mate to balance his weaknesses? I dunno but the options don’t look promising in that match-up.

Sanders also is on a bit of a free ride as the other candidates are not attacking him as much as they are each other. Probably because Sanders does have a cult-like base that is sticking with him no matter what. Uh, sound familiar? We have a president like that now.

Meanwhile, Trump had the best week of his presidency. Though when you consider one of the highlights of the week was a tribe of Republican senators who saved him from being thrown out of office, the highlights aren’t so high.

He was impeached, ya know. And saved by a bunch of senators scared for their own futures.Thank goodness Alan Dershowitz, came through for them with a ridiculous reason to acquit but not so ridiculous that they couldn’t hide behind it.

The economy keeps on keeping on and likely will not enter a recession this year – the best medicine for Trump to take into a re-election campaign. The economy has been resilient. It has been growing for a record 12 years now (yes, 12. The recovery began under Obama despite what Trump says. The incumbent President always gets the credit for a good economy and, at least historically, the blame when it goes bad.)

Trump also credits himself with a fabulous State of the Union but he never did care about how many lies he tells and this speech was a bonanza of lies. Speaker Nancy Pelosi ripped up the speech. I can't blame her but I think she was wrong to do it giving Trump and his supporters memes (many phony) for weeks.

Biden has been a miserable candidate this year. But if you’re old enough to have lived through his other unsuccessful runs for President, you know that isn’t news. He’s just a bad, probably also outdated, candidate. But, it’s true he is a nice guy.

At the moment, this is lining up as a successful re-election for Trump. But fear not! There still are other factors that aren’t yet in play.

First, he isn’t one-on-one with anyone yet and that will change the dynamic. Second, he won the presidency by not too many votes, but enough to take three key electoral states to win. How he does in those states this time around is an unknown. The economy still hasn’t lifted those areas and, like New Hampshire and other states, there are still big pockets where the economy has not helped the middle class. At all.

Tax cuts benefiting the wealthiest have fueled the economy and Trump can applaud how well 401k’s are doing but only for those who have them, and much of the America overlooked for so long doesn’t have them, or health care.

Trump is fighting like always, though. He knows, for example, that he doesn’t have to win the African American vote, he just needs to get a few more percentage points to make a big difference. He, or his people, are as cagey on that as always.

So, it’s not over yet – it’s really just begun but you cannot take your eye off the ball.

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The State of the Union is, fill in the blank

2/5/2020

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The state of our union is, well, fill in the blank. If you’re a Trump supporter things are great and if you’re not our democracy is being threatened.

From President Trump’s (intentional?) non-shake of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s hand, to her skipping announcing, “It is my high privilege and distinct honor of presenting to you the President of the United States“ to her ripping up his speech as he bathed in the partisan applause after he finished.

In typical polarized fashion, if you saw Trump not shake Pelosi’s hand and support Trump you saw it as a deserved snub and insult. After all, she just led the effort to impeach him. Or he may just have been demonstrating his germ issue and well known aversion to shaking hands.

When Pelosi skipped the traditional intro and you support her, you think he deserved it or, if you support him, that he just began his speech before she could get out the words, or she intentionally was dissing the President.

Trump should not have left her hand unshaken and she never should have ripped up the speech.

Indeed, we are one mucked up country.

Not to mention the Democrats kicked off the week with a disaster in Iowa where we still don’t have the final results (at least at this writing). And, what results we have show Joe Biden lagging in fourth place. Then again, that may be his best Iowa finish in three tries – so glass half full?

Trump’s speech included more exaggerations and lies than it did facts, and still he was interrupted mostly by Republicans for applause numerous times. Pelosi and others in her party were shown shaking their heads, slumping and basically ticked off by what they were hearing. Trump called for action on controlling prices for prescription drugs and a bunch of Democrats stood holding up three fingers, signifying HR 3, a House-passed bill, to do just that and that has not been taken up in the Republican-controlled Senate.

A Medal of Freedom was awarded to conservative firebrand Rush Limbaugh, recently diagnosed with an aggressive cancer, and it was hung around his neck on the spot. Instant highest honor the country can give a civilian!! A scholarship that “just became available” was given to a young African American girl, again live on the new reality show, “This is Just One Long Campaign Commercial.” To top it off a 100-year old Tuskegee Airman was promoted to brigadier general live on the air. And, a decorated active duty soldier was reunited with his family as he came out from behind the doorway to surprise his wife and kids.

Reality TV meet the State of the Union.

Impeachment was never mentioned but today Trump likely will be acquitted of impeachment articles passed by the Democratic House and he will witness Republican senators declare the charges not worthy of removal from office but with many admitting, in true Lou Costello fashion, that he did a bad, bad thing but he learned his lesson (like him or not, have you ever witnessed him learning a lesson?).

What would you call the state of the union?

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Dershowitz gives cover for a no-impeachment vote

1/30/2020

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President Trump, who views himself as at most a tyrant and at least as a CEO-type who every employee should kowtow to, will feel all the more powerful when he is acquitted in the impeachment trial.

That is partly due to one of his lawyers, Alan Dershowitz, who argued that as long as the President, who like every candidate believes his election is in the national interest, is acting in what he sees as the public’s best interest to get himself re-elected, he has done nothing impeachable.

I don’t care in this moment if you are a supporter of Trump or not, Dershowitz’ argument would put anti-constitutional power in a president’s hands. Dershowtiz’ take on the Constitution is a minority one in the world of constitutional experts. As one of his former Harvard colleagues, Professor Charles Fried put it, Dershowitz’ position made the “very best argument for getting (former NSC Advisor John) Bolton’s testimony” so the Senate can determine Trump’s motives and whether they’re “different from the national interest.”

Some Republican senators already are using Dershowitz’ words to justify their coming "no witnesses" vote which will lead to their not guilty verdict. Dershowitz’ argument whether they agree with it or not is giving them cover to acquit Trump.

Of course today Dershowitz and some Fox talking heads are saying, basically, he didn’t say what he said. Dershowitz tweeted, “They (critics) characterized my argument as if I had said that if a president believes that his re-election was in the national interest, he can do anything. I said nothing like that, as anyone who actually heard what I said can attest.”

Well, I was watching and listening. He said that if a president (or any candidate really) thinks his election is in the public interest, then any action he takes cannot be considered a quid pro quo. But more importantly, many Republican senators are taking what he said as cover to vote to acquit Trump.

Just go listen to the tape, or on YouTube or whatever, and try to forget your political beliefs. Just listen to what he said and I think you’ll agree.

Now in the great scheme of life Dershowitz', who is at heart, a criminal defense lawyer, is a minority interpretation. But those Republican senators are using it as a crutch to justify their acquittal vote. And, when he is acquitted you can bet your bottom dollar that Trump will use it to further his corruption of the government. It should be a humdinger of a State of the Union address next week.

There also are articles today saying that the ultimate vote on calling witnesses could end in a 50-50 tie and put Chief Justice Roberts in the position of breaking the tie, or letting the tie stand and then the issue of witnesses will be moot.

There will be no 50-50 vote. Majority Leader McConnell isn’t the only good vote-counter in the Senate, Those couple of senators who indicated they might-maybe-possibly could vote for more witnesses (Romney, Collins, Murkowsi, Alexander) will read the votes and see no witnesses is a foregone conclusion and they will vote to have no witnesses. It’s done all the time in Congress – see how the vote’s going; if you can’t win by voting your conscience, go with the majority and cover your rear. 53-47 here we come.

Of course I believe Bolton should testify. He was in the room. He knows. And anyone who knows Bolton knows he’s a straight-shooter. In fact, that’s one reason Trump didn’t like him on his staff.

On a side note, if they call Joe Biden, he could see it as a huge opportunity. They would be questioning him on the subject he feels most passionate about – his family. If he gave a good performance, it would only help him. But, it’s a big risk because he could screw up.

In any event, he has no relevant testimony. If there were any evidence of his wrong doing, Republicans should pull it out, show it and have the Justice Department investigate. There has only been innuendo, no evidence. They aren’t asking the FBI or Justice to investigate. That’s because there is no evidence.

Our political situation is very messed up, to say the least. If Trump is acquitted, as he will be, and if he wins re-election – the country will be in for the test of our lives to protect our Democracy.

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