Blog Posts

A 'meh' first year?

1/19/2022

Tomorrow will mark President Biden’s first year in office. How’s it going so far?

A mixed bag of successes (infrastructure, vaccine delivery, pandemic aid, youth poverty) and bad (Afghanistan, voting rights, pandemic, perception of the economy, among others).

Call it a “meh” first year in a very challenging period of our history.

Miscalculations, there've been a few. Probably the biggest was that his well-earned reputation as a successful, competent and likeable senator (in another political era) did not result in easy (or many) legislative successes. His relationships from the days he was in the Senate are primarily gone or overtaken by sheer political greed or newcomers who think about their Twitter feed first, fund-raising second and governing maybe third, at best.

Biden, despite his years as vice president to President Obama which updated his familiarity with the Senate, never before faced such hostility from across the aisle or such push back on his proposals. Including from an invigorated Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell who has said his main goal is to block Biden’s agenda. Just as was his main goal during the Obama presidency.

Then there are senators Synema and Manchin, from his own party, who are blocking much success at all in a 50-50 Senate. The overall partisanship – both in Congress and among the populace – is at a fever pitch not seen since the Civil War.

The forces against him are strong and the mistakes of his Administration are many, including in the communications department.

Still, as his minions are saying in defense, “he was elected to four years, not one.” Problem is, unless he or his people find a winning legislative strategy in a year when Republicans are planning on taking over the Congress in the mid-term election which means little or no cooperation, the next three years aren’t likely to be much better.

Which leads us to some recent polling data.

Biden is under water, as they say, in his approval from the country. The important right track/wrong track figure: 68 percent of voters say the country is on the wrong track. Just 40 percent approve of the job Biden is doing. Republicans have become favored over Democrats to handle the economy, jobs, immigration, national security and gun policy.

Democrats barely are beating the GOP on several issues they owned just one year ago: education, the pandemic and voting rights.

Ominous too is that the public that elected him for his competence and trustworthiness now has significant doubts about his character. According to the latest POLITCO-Morning Consult poll, majorities of voters said they disagreed with the following statements:

Biden is energetic (58 percent)
Biden is a strong leader (57 percent)
Biden is a clear communicator (56 percent)
Biden keeps his promises (53 percent)
Biden is capable of leading the country (51 percent)

Asked to give Biden a grade one year into his term:

37 percent gave him an F
11 percent gave him an A
And 20 percent gave him a B

Meh.

Many folks voted for Biden because he is a nice guy, well credentialed AND he isn’t Donald Trump. Many of us viewed him as a “transitional” president to a quieter, more logical time than the Trump years. If Biden doesn’t seek a second term, which is likely, it’s not clear who is waiting in the wings on the Democratic side, except for Vice President Kamala Harris who is already looking at a political makeover after a less than successful first year. Of course, it's way too early to make any definitive guesses in presidential politics.

In the background is a reinvigorated former President Donald Trump who is endorsing candidates (trying to maintain his position as the leader of the GOP) and begun holding rallies again, still voicing his lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him, an argument his base gladly cheers on, overlooking entirely the facts, and the protest/insurrection that occurred on Jan. 6, motivated by Trump’s rhetoric.

Trump has potential opposition to get the 2024 nomination, primarily at the moment from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Trump acolyte who is doing scary things in Florida on the pandemic and voting rights and incurring Trump’s wrath for being ungrateful to the help and support Trump gave him in his election. Of course his wrath or his praise last only until the next bright object comes along.

It ain’t pretty no matter which side you’re on.

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January 6 anniversary thoughts

1/5/2022

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On the eve of the January 6 insurrection/riot/coup/tourists-taking-pictures, out in the open, right in front of our collective faces, former President Donald Trump is laying the groundwork for another White House bid, and this time the lying he’s done (pretending the 2020 election was stolen from him) may wind up actually happening through seemingly legitimate avenues. But to his benefit.

He is endorsing state-level candidates for Secretary of the State, the top person overseeing elections in states, and attorneys general, those folks who are the top state law enforcement official if there is a legal question..

While he tried to get the Georgia secretary of state, a Republican, to “find” enough votes for him to win the state in 2020, the secretary held firm and did nothing to the votes, which were officially, and legally, cast by Georgia voters.

Picture what happens if the secretary of state is someone who has been furthering Trump’s big lie (that he actually won in 2020) and who the former president endorsed. And who has blind loyalty to Trump. Picture that.

Shades of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who Trump endorsed for re-election last week. Not only is Trump’s endorsement unusual – typically American politicians stay out of other countries’ politics – but he endorsed a “political strongman,” which in this case means an autocrat. An autocrat is someone who insists on complete obedience from others and is unaccountable to anyone or any law. Sound like anyone you know?

That’s the government Trump tried to create when in office and the type of “democracy” he’d run if ever re-elected. Someone (Steve Bannon?) came up with an interesting strategy for Trump: work the system, endorse candidates who will do your bidding in key spots that oversee elections. If they get elected, they can help you get elected. If Trump gets reelected, watch out Prime Minister Orban and Vladimir Putin. You ain’t seen an autocrat until you see Donald J. Trump in power with the necessary backup at all levels of government. Then again, you both would have a solid ally.

This is why I, and a gazillion others, say our democracy is at stake in the next election. If Trumpophiles get elected, he strengthens his hand not to win fairly, but to cheat. If you don’t think that’s true, just look at what Trump’s been doing since 2016. He claimed then the election would be rigged against him, setting up an excuse when he (as even he expected) lost. What happened? He won. Fair and square. It was no longer rigged.

Early in the 2020 campaign for president he said the only way he’d lose is if the election was rigged against him. What happened? He lost the popular vote by seven million votes and got swamped in the Electoral College.

And if the Democrat’s rigged that election, two questions: Why did the Republican Senate and House members win? Or, alternatively, why didn’t the Democrats rig the election so more Democrats won? Then, their margins in Congress wouldn’t be so small that they have to plead for every vote they get among Democrats? Why not give yourselves solid majorities in each chamber?

Then, and I’ll go out on a limb here, Trump led a rebellion at the Congress on January 6, 2021, when the electoral votes are counted, as required by the Constitution. He tried to get then-Vice President Pence to cheat for him by rejecting various states’ votes, enough for him to win. And Pence refused because the Constitution doesn’t give the vice president that power. The lap dog to Trump for four years, who said and did things no one ever though Pence would say or do, may actually have heard the chants on the Hill that day to “hang Mike Pence"; but he did the right thing and followed the Constitution.

What if you get someone who will follow Trump’s lead and not follow the Constitution, the document that we have lived by for more than 200 years and has served all of us well – Democrats AND Republicans?

Imagine, if you will, a Republican Congress and Trump in the White House. Already there is talk among senior Republicans (Sen. Ted Cruz and third-ranking Republican in the House, Elise Stefanik who replaced Liz Cheney when she was thrown out of leadership for opposing Trump). They are making noises that they will impeach President Joe Biden for his policies at the southern border. Huh? I dunno, but if they’re in power, they will try do it. And with Trump’s hold on the Party, no Republican will be against it.

Meantime, Republicans are pushing state-level efforts at changing voting laws not to expand voter participation but to restrict it – well, at least among those groups they see as being against them. In some states, they are putting the state legislature in position to overturn elections in their states.

To protect against that, Democrats in the Senate want to pass a federal law expanding voting rights. Who’s blocking that? Well, every Republican senator and one or two Democratic senators who agree with the legislation but disagree with doing away with the Senate filibuster to get it done. Why? According to Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the key Democratic blocker: he’s for the change but only if it is voted on with a bi-partisan majority. No Republican senator has supported either the voting changes the Democrats are pushing and no Republican is for changing the filibuster.

I can hear some of my Republican friends saying, “yeah, but what about those Democrats who refuse to vote for any bill sponsored by any Republican who voted against impeaching Trump? Those Democrats are being silly. They are elected to serve their constituents not their own egos. But, it doesn’t exactly rise to setting up a system to, oh, what’s the word I’m looking for? Oh, yeah, rig a presidential election.

A recent YouGov poll shows that just 38 percent of the people expect the losing side in a presidential election to concede peacefully while 62 percent said they foresee “violence over losing” an election.

That is a poll of Americans. Americans. Nearly four in 10 Americans expect the losing side in an American presidential election to concede peacefully in America. That means, if my math is correct, that six in 10 Americans don’t expect a peaceful concession.

In America.

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Thoughts on a dreadful year

12/22/2021

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As we end a(nother) dreadful year because of the pandemic, a still too-partisan Washington, D.C., and a country whose citizenry seems to become more polarized by the day, we also look ahead to a year we all hope will see the pandemic “end,” the partisanship lessen and the polarization begin to melt.

One can hope anyway.

Some thoughts as we wind down 2021.

It’s not hyperbole to say that our democracy is at stake in 2022. Some states are changing laws to restrict voting. Some states are putting partisans in control to oversee elections. Some state legislatures are being given the right to take legal, well run elections and overturn them so their guys win. This is how democracy dies. And just because it’s “your side” that’s doing these things, doesn’t make it right. We all should fear what’s happening.

The main stream media is becoming more important even as media ranks are declining each yearr with local papers shutting down or vulture capitalists dismantling papers and chains they purchase. Still the media need to adjust. No longer can “equal coverage” be the norm. The norm needs to return to the media telling us the facts so we can make up our own minds. And the “facts” don’t include lies told by some politicians to create a “narrative” they want and a significant portion of the electorate believes. This is a longer discussion but it used to be the media presented both sides because each side was offering facts as they saw them. Today, lies are told and the media repeat them rather than expose them. For example, Republican elected officials are willingly signing on to the “fact” that January 6 was just another Washington protest. It was not. It was an attack on our democracy and on our fair elections. They tried to stop the legitimate vote counting which means they were trying to destroy our Constitution. As one person wrote in a letter to the editor of the Washington Post: “If mainstream news organizations strive for objectivity to the point of muddying the facts, the United States days as a democracy are numbered.” ‘Nuff said, for now.

More media developments. While the media somewhat cover the death of local newspapers it also needs to cover the birth of journals, nonprofit outlets that expanded during the pandemic. Membership in the Institute for Nonprofit News (INN) grew to more than 350 newsrooms this year from 195 in 2019. These newsrooms are financed by donations to those newsrooms – which INN has certified as independent and non-partisan.

More than 800,000 Americans have been lost to the pandemic since it began. Thousands more who had the virus and recovered will have long-term issues for years. That’s tragic and was avoidable thanks to vaccines developed in record time (thanks to huge investments made by the Trump Administration). A collateral piece of damage is a growing abuse of young women who are playing sports. High school girls’ sports teams have been subject to harassment, sexual shouts and racist chants. A recent Washington Post article reported, “Over the past year alone, alleged incidents of abuse by fans have been reported in California, Tennessee, Michigan, Vermont, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Maryland and New York, among other states, and some longtime stakeholders in high school sports agree: The behavior among students in the stands has never been worse.” The article didn’t explain why that is but a good guess is that it’s a buildup of frustration over the pandemic and a lowering of the bar for what once was decent behavior. More polarization. More acceptance of disgusting behavior.

It isn’t all Trump. Former President Donald Trump certainly owns some responsibility for the previous item and for the devolution of behavior in this country. But it isn’t all Trump. There is an element in this country that agrees with Thump's views and approach to politics. Plus, Trump’s last chief of staff, Mark Meadows and congressmen such as Jim Jordon, Paul Gosar, Marjorie Taylor Greene and others are to blame, too. They seized Trump’s lie about the 2020 election being rigged, model his sometimes crude, misogynistic, and racist remarks and bring down our standards tremendously. Many of these Republicans are out simply to build their brands on social media. Greene, Madison Cawthorn, Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebart come to mind. But Trump just contributed and then led trends that were going on in the Republican Party for years. The do-badders are ganging up on the country. How? They’ve called a fair election rigged. They don’t govern. They have not paid attention or respect to demographics and rather than welcome “minorities” into their ranks, paid lip service to efforts to expand the party. And now they play to a piece of the GOP that has become the Trump base – white voters without college degrees

Biden operates as a senator. Being President is hard (surprise!). It takes various skills. Biden was a very good senator and served as a loyal vice president, which is basically his entire job experience. I’ve never worked on Capitol Hill but I think a big part of the job is (or was) being collegial, and compromising or at least that was the Senate Biden worked in. Your word was your bond. Compromise was the name of the game. The game is different now but, still, Biden seems to be operating so far as old-time senator and not as a president. Losing Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) vote was a huge arrow to the heart of what was the agenda Biden ran on. Unless he figures out a way to bring Manchin back, Biden’s agenda is stalled, some might say mostly gone.

Speaking of Manchin, a friend sent me a column today from a website called Truthout.com that posits that what’s behind the West Virginia senator's blocking of the Biden plan is a possible run for president. The piece by William Rivers Pitt (you can read it here https://truthout.org/articles/is-killing-the-build-back-better-act-part-of-manchins-run-for-president/) posits that Manchin could be setting himself up as a third-party candidate (the piece gives good reasons) which made me think, initially, that no independent candidate can win the presidency. BUT 2024 could be different. If you take, for example, the front-runners for each party’s nomination (Biden and Trump) and toss in Manchin, Manchin could win. Take out Biden and add in Vice President Kamala Harris, Manchin can win. Take out Trump and add in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantos, Manchin can win. Manchin is a moderate Democrat who wins in a Republican state. Very interesting piece.

Ending where I began. Our democracy is in danger. The United States has hit a new low in a global ranking of political rights and civil liberty. The drop, according to Freedom House, a democracy watchdog group that released the study, was “fueled by unequal treatment of minority groups and increased polarization.”

As I said, this isn’t all on Trump, but his candidacies and presidency had a big flavor of racism and his strategy if he had one, as President was to polarize the country. Trump’s style, in business and politics, always depended on having an enemy, a target, a foil. That became RINOS (Republicans in Name Only) and liberals, politically. And he operated on a transactional basis.

For example Sen. Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader, became a partner, especially on naming conservative judges. But then McConnell congratulated Biden for his election win about two months after Election Day. He reasoned that giving Trump room to force recounts or file suits after Election Day right up until the final step, the Senate counting the state by state certified electoral votes on Jan. 6, was sufficient. McConnell accepts the truth, that Biden’s election was legit, no rigging. McConnell became the disloyal enemy. Politics does depend a lot on loyalty. Trump’s correct there. But loyalty to country outweighs loyalty to an individual.

A key goal in politics is that you need to add your votes, your base. Trump succeeded only in subtracting voters. Still he has literally taken over the Republican Party.

And our democracy remains in serious danger.

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A Democratic wake-up call

11/3/2021

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While all the votes aren’t counted yet, it’s more than fair to say that Tuesday was a loud wake-up call for President Biden and the Democratic Party.

They lost an election in Virginia that they should have won and, at the writing of this post, the New Jersey election for governor is tipping toward the Republicans.

You can hear the alarms ringing all over the country.

For sure one thing that Tuesday in Virginia proves is that the Democrats are very bad at stealing elections. Maybe it will back off some Republicans from saying our elections are rigged (I know, keep dreaming).

Another sure thing is that while he promised he would do his best to end the gridlock in Washington, Biden hasn’t even been able to end the gridlock in his own party as the Congress still has not passed two of his biggest promises to the American people.

Imagine if his Build Back Better plan had been passed a couple of months ago. Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey could have been touting for months the individual pieces of that bill that are so popular across the country, like childcare, or reducing (some) drug prices .

Instead, the thing many Americans know about that bill is that, thanks to two Democratic senators (one really) that proposal dropped from $3.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion. Not a platform to run on – “we’re not spending an extra two trillion dollars!”)

Instead, the Virginia race turned on Republican Glenn Youngkin’s very well run campaign based on local issues (whether they are real issues or not. I’m talking to you critical race theory) and his credentials, while his opponent, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, chose to run against Donald Trump instead of Youngkin.

And those swing voters who went for Biden last year, went for Youngkin Tuesday.

Trump was in his sweet spot Tuesday. With Youngkin keeping Trump at arm’s length but gladly accepting his endorsement, Trump won either way: If Youngkin lost, Trump could say he refused MAGA help which undid him. If Youngkin won, he could take credit for his base winning it for him. Win win. Oh, and Trump did take credit for his base winning the election for Youngkin.

Plus, McAuliffe ran a horrible campaign, especially for a former Democratic national chairman. Youngkin, a newcomer to politics, ran a very smart campaign.

Also, Trump’s ban from Twitter and other social media should be embraced by Republicans. Imagine how this race would have been affected if Trump was still tweeting every day? Hmm…maybe “loser Glenn Youngkin will lose his only election because he didn’t HUG ME IN PERSON!!” Tact is not one of Trump’s talents.

Biden’s numbers are sinking to Trump levels because he promised an end to gridlock, a reordering of American spending, and getting the pandemic under control. Instead he can’t even get his bills passed by Democratic bare majorities in the House or Senate or convince a big chunk of the country to get vaccinated.

Even his infrastructure bill, which passed with a bipartisan majority, still is on life support in the Democratic House as progressives hold it hostage until his Build Back Better bill is voted on. Petty. Stupid.

Add on top of that the sloppy (at best) Afghanistan pullout, the pandemic still here and an economy that can’t decide on its future and Biden’s numbers are gasping for air.

This makes for an interesting political environment until the next election – the mid-terms next year when the entire House and a third of the Senate is on the ballot. And gives those who oppose Biden (even in his own party, it seems) reason to keep opposing Biden.

I wonder if those progressives in the House will wake up and see that they are blowing a golden opportunity for significant change. But you can’t get the whole package. Just as those right wingnuts who did the same years ago to Republican presidents.

Those swing voters that went for Youngkin yesterday and Biden last year? Clearly, no one can count on them.

You still have to earn them.

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Why is the Bannon subpoena important?

10/21/2021

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Our institutions have been under attack for five years, and the attacks continue.

One, now, is the pursuit of charges against former President Trump’s key advisor, Steve Bannon, who, hiding behind Trump’s demands of executive privilege, is refusing to respect a subpoena issued by the committee investigating the January 6th riot/protest/insurrection/”normal day” on the Hill.

Some might say that with all the bigger issues facing our country, the Congress should not be pursuing charges against Bannon.

They key here, though, is if Bannon is allowed to ignore a Congressional subpoena, one more institution will take a major blow. A key purpose of the Congress is to keep the executive branch in check. Hearings and legislation are a couple of the ways Congress does that. Ignoring a Congressional subpoena and being allowed to get away with it, is huge. It sets a precedent that ties the hands of the Congress in future hearings.

If Bannon is allowed to ignore the subpoena, and no action is taken to hold him accountable – what will that do to the next time Congress issues a subpoena? And, while some Republicans are saying the January 6 Commission is not needed, what will happen when they are back in the majorities -- as they will be some day -- and they subpoena a witness? Will they stand back as they are now and accept someone ignoring that subpoena?

More likely, they will subpoena that witness and will need to hold whoever it is accountable for whatever they may, or may not, know.

Bannon clearly knows things, based on his comments January 5 on his pod cast, conversations he had with the President before and possibly during the riot.

If he didn’t mean those comments, but was just doing it to be provocative, then he has nothing to hide.

Those last three words are key when it comes to Trump wanting to protect documents. If he has nothing to hide, why hide information?

Now, Bannon could honor the subpoena and testify (unlikely) but what is likely is that if he takes seriously serving as a Congressional witness – under oath – he still could plead the Fifth Amendment and/or lie in his answers.

One might say, if he can take the Fifth or lie, why demand his presence as a witness?

Well, that brings me back to the first sentence of this post. Our institutions are under clear attack and if that continues and succeeds, our democracy is at significant risk.

If the Congress cannot hold the Executive branch accountable, the Constitution means nothing.

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Will they look good losing?

10/13/2021

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Back when I worked in the Reagan Administration, Commerce Secretary Malcolm Baldrige, my boss, would say of the then-right wing of the Republican Party: “They like to look good losing.”

That’s because those folks would have rather died on the battlefield clinging to their most extreme beliefs rather than compromise with the moderates in the party, or the Democrats.

Today, the same can be said in the Democratic Party. Progressives are holding any compromise hostage while they cling, at least publicly, to their $3.5 trillion package of spending and programs to revamp American society. Every day we read about the “talks” within the Democratic Party to try to find a compromise on the package that would likely be anywhere from $1.5 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Republicans have opted out of negotiating at all because they want nothing to do in any way with “helping” Democrats. Their eyes are not on legislating but on winning next year’s elections.

Progressives in the Democratic Party were known as “liberals” in my day but changed the label, I guess, because “progressive” sounds more acceptable.

For those of us not inside the Democratic talks, we have no idea what’s really being discussed. We just know that the progressives spokesmen are clinging to $3.5 trillion awaiting on Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Krysten Sinema of Arizona to tell them what they really want to support the package.

You gotta believe both Manchin and Sinema have laid out their needs/wants clearly to at least the White House.

This eventually will get settled, I believe, partly to show that Democrats left on their own, can get things done. Especially before next year’s mid-term election when, at the moment, the odds are they will lose both majorities they hold in the House and the Senate.

What they are succeeding in doing now is helping in the collapse of belief in President Joe Biden to get anything done. He’s down to his lowest approval ratings since he’s been President (also attributable to the continuing too-high numbers of deaths and cases of COVID, a mucked up withdrawal from Afghanistan, a border issue that doesn’t appear to be getting better, etc).

If the Democrats don’t come up with a compromise that helps (1) the people, (2) their own continued majority aspirations and (3) to boost Biden’s numbers, get ready for the country to go Republican in next year’s mid-terms and potentially in the next presidential election, potentially pushing us to the edge of the end of our democracy. And I don’t think that’s hyperbole.

This all while Trump holds rallies where he rails against Biden and lies about the last election (which has Republicans by a vast majority agreeing with him).

Trust me, I can handle Republicans back in power but not Republicans like Trump, or Cruz or Johnson, Republicans who sound like they oppose democracy too often, whether they know it or not. Republicans who refuse to admit how the last election went. If they can succeed while believing the Democrats stole the election, nothing is beyond their capability.

Trump, who continues to have no limits on what he says rails against Biden even for policies he (Trump) established in his administration and Biden continued. Among those: development of a safe COVID vaccine (the last time he mentioned the vaccine at a rally, he got booed. That was the last time he mentioned it rather than take credit for the rapid development of the vaccine to save lives); and, the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Remember when Trump wanted to bring the Taliban to Camp David for a signing ceremony? That war needed to be over and Trump set that in motion with Biden finishing the job.

The world, my friends, is upside down.

I am among the millions who would benefit from adding vision, dental and hearing to Medicare, as the progressives propose. I never understood why, when we hit the ages where those three areas are most needed, that they weren’t included.

But, I think most of us on Medicare would pass on those benefits and instead get child care straightened out so mothers can get back to work and help get our economy moving.

There are acceptable tradeoffs in that $3.5 trillion package.

If only people in Washington would work together, compromise and make a deal that actually helps the country.

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Will they raise the debt ceiling or won't they?

9/22/2021

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“The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payments of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.” – The U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment. (Emphasis added)

Too often, the debate over raising the debt limit (the maximum amount the United States is allowed to borrow to pay its debts) turns into a political football when it isn’t political at all. Some argue the 14th Amendment doesn’t say what it does, but you read it and decide.

This year may be the most political it’s become in history, though, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has pronounced Republicans will not support an extension of the debt limit. The Democrats would need to get 60 votes to overcome a filibuster (they only have 50) the likelihood at the moment is the debt limit will not be extended.

Not raising the debt limit is like you not paying your bills. In the U.S. Government’s case, the “bills” include things like Social Security payments, aid to folks hit hardest by the pandemic or hurricanes, the military wouldn’t be paid nor would federal employees. Anything paid by the federal government could not be paid and we, as you would in your financial life, default.

There are those would say, “Great! Those federal employees don’t do anything anyway." But those employees, among other things, pay our bills. If, as is looking more likely than in past years, McConnell maintains control of Senate Republicans. All that is going to happen.

The debt ceiling was raised 72 times from March 1961 to May 2011, including 18 times under Ronald Reagan, eight times under Bill Clinton, seven times under George W. Bush, and five times under Barack Obama.

You really have no choice but to raise it. The ceiling is raised so the U.S. can pay the money it’s already spent. It has nothing to do with future spending. It forces no control on future spending. Republican and Democratic presidents have contributed to the debt and the Congress has approved every dollar spent that led to us owing trillions of dollars.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who also has served as head of the Federal Reserve, wrote in a Wall Street Journal piece last weekend: “Default could trigger a spike in interest rates, a steep drop in stock market prices and other financial turmoil. Our current economic recovery would reverse into recession, with billions of dollars of growth and millions of jobs lost.”

Just the threat of default in the past has had its negative effects.
In 2011, during the Obama Administration, the U.S. credit rating was downgraded from AA+ to AAA because the debt limit was threatened. That was the first time in history Standard & Poor’s downgraded our credit rating. Standard & Poor’s wrote: the “effectiveness, stability and predictability” of American policy-making and political institutions had weakened.

Imagine what would happen today with our political climate what it is, with how other countries are questioning if our democracy will survive. Imagine what Standard & Poor’s might say today.

This is not good. This is not Republican or Democrat, but McConnel is making it so. He wants the Democrats to take the blame if/when the debt limit fails to be increased. It’s politics. It’s about affecting next year’s mid-term election when he hopes to become Majority Leader again. Will he cave? Well, he did flip the "rules" when he stopped an Obama Supreme Court nominee from hearings claiming it was too close to an election, and that's never been done (it has). Then, when President Trump nominate a justice even closer to an election, McConnell's "rule" disappeared.

The federal government will have spent all its cash sometime in the next number of weeks.

Typically there is political brinkmanship played when it comes to raising the debt limit. McConnell’s threat, though, likely cannot be pulled back. He’d look foolish, and he knows it. Though, stranger things have happened.

What will happen? One hopes that somehow the brinkmanship will end. That’s what President Biden thinks anyway.

Biden, though, hasn’t served in the U.S. Senate for years. He’s never been up against the type of “social media driving, base appealing” Republicans that live in the Senate these days.

So what will happen? We’ll see.

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I know. I promised myself. But..

9/8/2021

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My promise to myself was to stop blogging about former President Donald J. Trump because he is the, well, former president and really doesn’t matter anymore. But even after a significant (some would say landslide) loss last year, and the loss of his Twitter account, he’s not the type to fade quietly into the woodwork

His elected people can’t let him fade because, well, they are trying to grab Trump’s still strong base of supporters. Who?

Cong. Matt Gaetz, for one, who is being investigated for obstruction of justice and paying for sex with a minor, who just said Trump will run again at the next election and who went on a country-wide tour with another Trumpie, Cong. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who was stripped of her committee assignments for being nutso crazy. They went on that tour, that hasn’t been nationwide yet to build support with Trump voters.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott whose spur-of-the-moment response made national news when a reporter asked why the new Texas rape law eliminates rape and incest as legal exceptions for abortion. First, Abbott said it doesn’t eliminate them because, well, a woman does still have six weeks to decide to have a legal abortion (even though for at least four of those six weeks even the woman doesn’t necessarily know she’s pregnant). Then to boost his argument he said that he will eliminate rapists with strong law and order-- in spite of the fact that there are more than 6,000 rape tests in Texas yet to be analyzed. Justice delayed..
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis who’s latest way of not ticking off the former president is to say that reports he is running for president in 2024 are “purely manufactured” and “nonsense” even though the world knows he’s running for president in 2024 but trying to not tick off the former president.

Meanwhile, the former president intends to spend the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack by providing color on the Evander Holyfrield vs Vitor Belfot boxing match that night, apparently wanting to reinforce that he still lacks empathy.

Is he running? No one really knows. He’s not one prone to keeping a secret though so I’m guessing he hasn’t yet made his mind up. But he does want to freeze the race as long as he can to stop anyone else from running officially.

My guess: He won’t run. He’s already lost one race and is batting .500 running for president and holds a unique place in history for being the only president to be impeached twice. Does he want to put his record in jeopardy?

Meantime, he is proudly watching as Republican state after Republican state passes legislation that will restrict certain non-Republican voting blocs from voting, which would make his winning a future race a bit more likely. This in response to Trump’s lie that he actually won the last election but Democratic voter fraud stole it from him. Fact Check: well, you know.

For example, look at Texas in 2020. It’s like, you just can’t make this stuff up. Republican legislators in Texas passed and the governor signed what likely is the most restrictive voting law in the country. Why? They claim there was massive fraud in voting in 2020.

In fact, the Democrats inventing votes led to this result in Texas in 2020:

a 52-47 percent popular vote victory for Trump;
Republican incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn won reelection;
Republicans kept their majorities in the state house and state senate.

Damn Democrats and their voter fraud!!! Imagine if there had been no fraud!!! Oh.

If Donald Trump becomes president again, though, you need to think what that will look like. He of course will be emboldened to run his second administration even more self-interestedly than his first.

Who will be in the Cabinet this time? Typically, Congress is one place presidents have pulled people to join their Cabinets. There, of course, is a certain percent of those members he wouldn’t pick because he perceives them as enemies. And, Rex Tillerson, Trump’s first secretary of state, called his boss a “moron” which I’m guessing is not the greatest recommendation for other, competent business leaders to accept a cabinet post.

Honestly, I doubt even Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared, would sign up for another four years.

I could go on, but I promised myself.

0 Comments

Signs you're getting old(er)

8/18/2021

3 Comments

Like you, I’ve been getting older for a long time. In fact, since my day of birth in 1950. Lord, am I getting older.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m very happy that I’m getting older and I hope I get older for many years to come. But, every now and then I think about what's changed in my life over the years.

For example, yesterday I had my Annual Medicare Wellness Visit.

Annual. Medicare. Wellness. Visit.

(And I hope that appointment is on my calendar for many annuals to come.)

Talking about that appointment, without getting into many details (not because my medical info is private but some just aren't really up for gentile discussion) I just got back from the hospital where I went for X-rays ordered by my nurse practitioner (NP) yesterday. Was for my hands which for a few months now have felt very tight, especially in the mornings, especially the index fingers and wrists.

Originally, I thought it was related to my golf swing and I was swinging wrong. But, no, that is my real swing.

And, no, I didn’t fall or get into a fight with an anti-vaxxer. Actually I was pretty sure I knew what it was before I raised it with my NP. At my age you sense these things. Arthritis. 99 percent positive but the X-rays will confirm. Arthritis, another blessing you get that says, yes, you are getting older.

Parts are wearing out.

Now, that pain doesn’t stop me from playing golf. Or affect it in any way, shape or firm. I played the same before the presumed arthritis arrived. And I can sum up my golf game in three words (golf technical jargon but you'll understand): I’m not good.

I play with several guys in and out of our foursome who are peers, age wise. And, like any older person, I enjoy the camaraderie more than I would playing well. (Okay, that last sentence is a lie. I would trade them for a better game in a nanosecond!)

As I’ve gotten older I have collected a broad array of medical experts, too. And not just a Nurse Practitioner, which didn’t exist back then. Thirty years ago I had a general practitioner and an ophthalmologist because I’ve worn glass since before kindergarten. They served me well.

Along the years, though, I’ve added a neurologist, a dermatologist, a podiatrist, a urologist, a gastroenterologist, a surgeon, and, soon, a pulmonologist. I think that’s it. So far.

My wife’s birthday is today. She is a year younger than I am. So we get to experience the wonders of getting older together.

Not only does she provide all the advantages a good partner brings, but she (up until the pandemic anyway) came with me to important doctor appointments because (and I don’t think this is a function of age, just a function of who I am) she listens and remembers what the doctors say.

For example, yesterday my NP looked at a six-month old test ordered by a different doc and said. this says you have (one of those details you don’t really need to know). I said, hmm, I wonder why he never told me that. Seems he should have. Then I got home and my wife (whose birthday is today and who, among other gifts, I gave a T-shirt that says, “Wicked Smaht.” People from Massachusetts (Massachusettsians? Massachusites? Massachusettsans? Bay Staters? will understand that) remembered exactly what he said.

Which is all a long way of saying, getting older ain’t so bad. And I hope we all get older for a long time.

3 Comments

Oys! and Yos!

8/4/2021

2 Comments

(The Screaming Moderate occasionally hands out awards to those who have done good -- Yos! -- and those who have done bad -- Oys. The committee on Yos! and Oys! meets whenever it feels like it.)

The first-ever Potential Yo! goes to former President Donald J. Trump. If Trump were to put out a statement, make a speech or video tape a message urging people to get a vaccination, we would see an additional boost given to the current surge of vaccinations. The political upsides to Trump (typically the way to encourage him to do something): The vaccine was developed on his watch and even Biden gave him a backhanded credit when he recently said the vaccine was developed under a Republican Administration. Trump speaks directly to many of the states far behind in vaccinating their people because they typically are "Trump states." If one wanted to be cynical one might say that there is no doubt Trump would earn some credit even if his speech had no impact because vaccinations are surging as people understand they actually could get very sick or die and as cities, like New York, are instituting bans on those not vaccinated from eating indoors at restaurants, going to to the theater, etc. This would be an easy way for Trump to earn and take credit for even if he had effect at all for a major increase. It would be a win-win. As he once said to a bloc of voters, "what have you got to lose?"

Oy! for being a hypocrite to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. For years Cuomo prided himself on his support for women and changing of laws to strengthen sexual harassment laws. Yesterday, New York Attorney Genera Leticia James issued results of an investigation requested by Cuomo into allegations of sexual harassment against him. The blistering report documents the accounts of 11 women who alleged sexual harassment against Cuomo. Cuomo liked to go around saying "believe the women" when claims of sexual harassment were lodged. Apparently he meant "believe the women except these 11 women."

Oy! to Republicans in Congress. Whatever happened to spending like a drunken sailor? During the Trump years Republicans in Congress shelved their decades-long dedication to not vote for spending increases to please Trump. Now, though, since there's a Democrat in the White House, Republican congressmen and senators are against increasing spending. They are giving one to Biden on infrastructure knowing they'll get much credit back home for improvements that will be made to bridges, roads, etc. Red ink apparently in their minds is a thing of the past as they now revert to what was a Republican long-time value.

Oy! to cancel culure. I gotta tell ya, I'd never heard of cancel culture until recent months when Republicans especially have been complaining about it. Is there a Committee to Cancel Culture? Who's in charge of it? Some think it's the media that gets together secretly among themselves to decide what to cancel today. Conservative talking heads popularized the phrase when things like Mr. Potato Head and some Dr. Seuess books were cancelled. (Want to know where the prhase comes from? It comes for the song "Your Love is cancelled" that appeared on an album in 1981 by Chic, a group that hit it big during the disco era. They prided themselves on songs with double meetings such as "Le Freak." According to Wikipedia, the song original lyrics had a refrain that said "ahh fuck off" after they failed to meet with Grace Jones. The refrain later became "ahh freak out" and a Number One disco song.) I'd love to cancel the phrase Cancel Culture.

A final Oy! to the Committee on Oys! and Yos! for not issuing a single Oh!

2 Comments

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A 'meh' first year?

January 6 anniversary thoughts

Thoughts on a dreadful year

A Democratic wake-up call

Why is the Bannon subpoena important?

Will they look good losing?

Will they raise the debt ceiling or won't they?

I know. I promised myself. But..

Signs you're getting old(er)

Oys! and Yos!

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