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Face it, Trump is what he is. Pathetic

9/30/2020

Last night was not a presidential debate. It was a call to arms.

The President of the United States when asked to condemn white supremacy instead looked into the camera and told the Proud Boys, to “stand back and stand by.” Seemed pretty clear to me that when you tell a (mostly) white, male-only organization that was formed to engage in political violence to “stand by,” Donald J. Trump is telling them to get ready for election night and do what you do.

Trump likely cannot win this election without suppressing the vote. And if that doesn’t work, he is promising violence. Let’s quit pussyfooting around with Trump:

If he doesn’t win, he will watch as his most right-wing supporters, from the Proud Boys to the KKK, start violence. Don’t believe me? Watch what happens.

I hope I’m wrong but every signal Trump has given during his time as President is to oppose and fight his opponents. And believe might makes right. Even before his presidency he was a racist. He remains so.

The instruction got through because the Proud Boys chairman, Enrique Tarrio, said after the debate: “That’s basically what we did in (Portland). We stood back, stood by.”

Need anything clearer? Portland was besieged by protests and/or rioting for 100 days.
One question I had after the debate:

If Trump lies about everything, which he does, then why couldn’t he lie about condemning white supremacists? An easy enough lie, seems to me. He’s refused to condemn white supremacists every time he’s been asked for years. Every Time.

Who won? No one. Not Trump. Not Biden. Not the American people. And not the United States of America which is now further portrayed internationally as a country on the decline.

Seconds after the debate ended CNN’s Dana Bash, as articulate a TV person as there is, said, “That was a shit show.” Mic drop.

Trump was rude, boorish, lied, acted like a mob boss/bully. Didn’t play by any rules agreed to by his campaign.

Former Vice President Joe Biden wasn’t a paragon of virtue either but he was far less intrusive and loud than Trump. Far less. He told the President to “shush,” called him a “clown,” told him to stop “yapping.” Not exactly what we know as presidential language.

But Trump set the bar so low for Biden, claiming he is addled, dumb, old and on drugs, that Biden came out just fine. If anyone can come out fine from last night.

Trump’s strategy seemed to be: break glass and cut my opponent. Whatever Biden’s strategy going into the debate, during the debate he decided he just had to look sane. And he did. As I said, low bar.

Clearly one of Trump’s aims is to fog the election enough to do what he’s done for years after his failures: cry foul and, and go to court.

Former Republican National Chairman and chief of staff to Trump Reince Priebus was on TV this morning and said it out loud: low turnout helps Trump. He didn’t even pretend to be a diplomat and say what normal people would say about an election: Please vote. Everyone. May the best person win.

So there you go. That’s the Trump campaign strategy: Keep turnout low and challenge every vote you can. So far in the mail-in voting far more Democrats have voted than Republicans, data show. That's gotta worry Republicans, not just at the presidential level, but down ticket.

Violence may be Trump's backup plan but when you tell the Proud Boys – created four years ago to foment political violence – to “stand ready” you likely will get violence even if you didn’t want it. Clearly, though, the President wants it.

Face it. He will not only not go quietly into that good night, he will break every norm in sight. And do far worse damage to this country.

One of Biden’s best lines of the night, if anyone could hear it over the President’s bullying and shouting, was “It is what it is because you are who you are.” That covers just about everything Trump does.

But the most chilling quote of the night belonged to Trump.He said, “No, this is not going to end well.”

Can he be any clearer?

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Tonight's the night

9/29/2020

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The first, and likely most important, debate of the presidential campaign is tonight.

The stakes are high, even though most every voter seems to have made up his or her mind who they’re supporting. It could be, though, those few who haven’t decided or go back and forth will make the difference on Nov. 3. The estimates of undecided or those who can change their mind ranges from 3 percent to about 10 percent in various polls. Enough to sway what most experts expect to be a close election.

The candidates appear to have different styles for preparing. Former Vice President Joe Biden is doing traditional preparation with mock debates. President Trump is doing his unique version – no specific prep but his job, as he says, and being asked questions by staff, and media as the debate nears.

Some thoughts:

Trump’s taxes. While not listed as a topic for debate, hard to ignore the New York Times’ reporting that Trump, unsurprisingly but previously not documented, hadn’t paid taxes for many years and the last couple of tax years he paid $750. That puts his contribution to the federal government closer to the 44 percent of Americans who pay no taxes than to the average American household. The reason that 44 percent pays no taxes is because they don’t earn enough. Not so with Trump. Trump so far went from calling the reporting “fake news” to saying the Times got the paperwork illegally, which it did not. We’ll see which answer he settles on tonight.

Fact-checking. There is debate among those of us who have nothing whatsoever to do with the debates, other than to witness them, as to what each candidate’s strategy should be. Should Biden fact check Trump on the spot? Should Fox’ Chris Wallace, the moderator, fact check both candidates live? Doing that would likely eat up a lot of time and give Trump the excuse he needs to talk about anything but the pandemic. I expect that when blatant lies are told, moderator Chris Wallace will have some tactic to call it out because he is, at heart, a reporter. But overall, I think the fact-checking will be left to the post-debate shows and news articles and columns.

Strategies. If there are two thing we know about Donald Trump, it’s that he likes to call people childish names and he likes to talk about anything but what he was asked about. Biden shouldn’t get dragged into that. Biden needs to talk pandemic, the threat to Obamacare raised by Trump’s recent Supreme Court nomination, a staggering economy. Plus Biden has a built in BS response through his “C’mon, man” verbal tick. I expect we’ll hear more than one of those. It’s a little like President Reagan’s “there you go again” which poked fun/mockery and allowed him to make his points.

If there’s another thing we know about Donald Trump it’s that he never apologizes, never admits when he’s wrong and always attacks. He doesn’t prepare in any detail for such events, depending instead on his “stable genius” to get him through debates. When asked during the 2016 campaign, for example, where he gets his foreign policy advice he responded “from the (Sunday) shows.”

Trump likely will parry any attacks with offense, not defense. He also will try to bring Biden’s family into his answers, in an effort to bait Biden. I’m sure Biden’s advisors have been working with him on his knee-jerk (and understandable) reaction which is to defend his family and display honest anger. Still, Biden is the one on stage and we'll see how he reacts.

Humor. Biden likely will employ humor, it’s part of his personality. Trump never seems to joke. In fact he’s admitted “I don’t joke.” Biden must use humor sparingly, though, and constantly focus on the pandemic. Many advise Biden to use humor and ridicule to respond to Trump. Fair enough, but you can’t over do that or it loses its effect.

Outside advice. Philip Reines, who played Trump in mock debates for Hillary Clinton, suggests Biden early in the debate work in a statement such as: “C’mon, Mr. President. Everyone that knows that whatever you call fake is real. Whatever you call a lie is the truth. Whatever you accuse others of doing is what you’ve done. And whatever you make fun of me by saying by accident only services to deflect what you say on purpose.” Get out ahead of Trump, in other words. Make his responses look, as they are, non-responsive and a reflection of his lack of knowledge or admitted lack of study of the issues. He repeatedly has said his decisions are guided by “his gut.”

Questions to be asked? Only Wallace knows what questions he’ll ask. A couple I’d ask:

Mr. President, at first you said the Times’ reporting on your taxes was “fake news.” The next day you said the Times got hold of the document’s “illegally.” Which is it?
Mr. Biden, it’s said that you have wanted to be President since at least your 20s. Now, if elected you’d be the oldest person ever to serve as President. The President has accused you of being on performance-enhancing drugs and not mentally or physically up to the job. What confidence can you give the American public that you are up to the job at your age? (can't resist, Biden could paraphrase Reagan and say, "well, we've seen what youth and inexperience gives us over the last three years.")
Mr. President, you say that you and your Administration have done the best job possible in response to the pandemic. More than 200,000 Americans have died from the coronavirus. Millions more have had or have it. And the numbers are rising again. Why should Americans believe you especially when your position flies in the face of disease and vaccine expert?
Mr. Biden, if you’re son was paid billions of dollars by foreigners as Mr. Trump alleges, shouldn’t you be wearing a better suit?

Okay, I obviously am kidding about that last one.

The first in the series of presidential debates typically is the most important and the one that can move poll numbers. This year may be different because Trump’s approval rating and his position in most polls has remained basically the same throughout the campaign and, in fact, throughout his presidency.

Biden is over 50 percent in many of those polls, a difficult number to reduce.

Expect Trump to literally throw even the kitchen sink in tonight to try to crack into Biden’s lead. Expect a surprise too. Trump likes doing that. Plus, when he had his Rose Garden pandemic briefing yesterday, he took no questions. I could be wrong, but I’m thinking that’s because he has an answer to the tough questions but he’s saving it for the bigger audience tonight.

Expect Biden to be watched carefully to see if his temper gets the better of him in the face of what will be an onslaught from Trump, and if he looks fatigued by the end.

Also, expect to get to bed late tonight.

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Election night and beyond. The unknown.

9/24/2020

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The President of the United States -- our government’s top official who swore an oath to uphold the Constitution -- this week would not commit to a peaceful transfer of power. Again.

It’s, of course, not his first time he's refused to respond to that question. He said it in 2016 too.

Now a peaceful transition of power in this country does not mean you can’t legally challenge election results in the courts. Of course, if there is a legitimate allegation of a violation of the law, that process should play out. And/but there are deadlines. This is all laid out in our Constitution – Article II, Section 1, Clause 2, as modified by the 12th and 23rd Amendments.

For the record, this election cycle that means that:

By December 8 any election results must be resolved.
December 14, electors meet in the states to vote.
December 23 is the deadline for elector votes to be submitted to the President of the U.S. Senate.
January 6, those ballots are counted
January 20, whoever was elected is sworn into office.

In 2000, the Year of the Hanging Chads Election, former Vice President Al Gore conceded before the deadline to resolve all results, and after the Supreme Court ruled for George W. Bush in the Florida contest. For the good of the county. Gore said:

"I accept the finality of the outcome which will be ratified next Monday in the Elector College. And tonight, for the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession."

Words unlikely to ever come out of Donald Trump's lips if he should lose the election.

Trump did not officially challenge the 2016 results because he won the Electoral College. He still maintains he also won the popular vote, which he lost by about 3 million votes. He didn’t win the popular vote. And it doesn’t matter. We elect via the Electoral College. He is the duly elected President.

If you want to be totally terrified by all the scenarios experts and lawyers for both candidates are reviewing, read this piece in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

What does Trump mean when he says he won’t commit to a peaceful transfer of power? I don’t know. That question hasn’t been put to him that I know of. We do know, though, how loyal his supporters are. So you can let your imagination run wild. And that, too, is frightening.

If you read The Atlantic piece, you’ll see that at the end of the day – if things play out in their worst-case scenario – lawyers literally will decide the election in one way or another. You’ll also see more clearly why filling that vacant Supreme Court seat is imperative in Trump’s mind.

This all could come about because the President for months has laid out his “belief” that this election is being rigged by the Democrats because of the unusually high number of mail-in ballots expected because of the coronavirus.

There is no way he will concede this election. And, in fact, based on the article, he’s the one who could steal it. Joe Biden is more likely to accept a clear enough loss. Trump will not even accept a landslide against him, I expect. And, there's likely no landslide coming.

Trump accused Hillary Clinton of being crooked but if she were totally crooked and devious enough (and one would assume with the presidency at stake she would be) why didn’t she rig the Electoral College instead of the popular vote? “Crooked” but not smart? Highly unlikely in her case.

Trump has never indicated anything but that he believes this election is “rigged.” There is no reason to doubt that he will maintain that view until his dying day. In his mind, he can never be a "loser."

The question is, even if election night is not a landslide, will Trump ever concede the election? The answer likely is no.

And that’s when his loyalists could make sure there is not a peaceful transition.

I have no big concerns that if Biden wins, there will be a transfer of power in January. There are protocols to remove a former president from the White House.

I also believe anything is possible with Donald Trump -- except him accepting he lost an election.

If the election for some reason (laid out in that article) is not resolved by Inauguration Day, the Speaker of the House will be sworn in, as the second in line in the succession. There is no doubt in the Constitution that a presidential term expires on January 20.

Still, I do worry about what happens to our democracy over the next few months. No matter who you are supporting, you should too.

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It isn't rigged

9/17/2020

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I’m seeing and hearing a lot of angst lately about Joe Biden.

He’s not active enough on the campaign trail.
His surrogates aren’t being seen enough.
He’s not as strong on Issue A or B as I’d like.

I have something for those folks to think about:

Who do you want in the Oval Office? A man with experience, common sense, and empathy? Or Donald Trump?

It truly is that phrase that’s become trite: “a binary choice.” It’s one or the other. Aren’t getting everything you want from Biden? He’s not “progressive” enough? He’s too old? Then vote for Donald Trump, if that’s what you want.

I have a Facebook friend who posted the other day, “Defeating Donald Trump is the most important political objective of my lifetime. Yet Joe Biden looks like he may not be up to the job.” He then solicited suggestions by saying: “Substantive strategies to ensure that Biden beats Trump and secures the presidency?”

I responded, “Vote.”

That’s it. Just vote. Once.

To my Trump-supporting friends, I hear you. I don’t get it but I hear you. You think he’s kept his promises. That he’s good at speaking his mind. That he’s giving the middle finger to the establishment. That he is doing something about those people who have been taking your jobs away. I understand all that.

We just disagree.

And you know something? That’s okay. That’s what this country is all about. I’m just hoping there are more of me than you. Just as you're hoping the opposite.

Is the election rigged? No, it isn’t. The President can say it every day from now to November 3, and I expect he will, but it isn’t rigged. It wasn’t rigged four years ago when he won, and it isn’t being rigged now.

People who believe in democracy don’t rig elections.

I not only don’t like most of the policies the President has adopted (and they are adopted, he doesn’t truly agree with them), I really don’t like a lot of the people in his Administration.

Forget about the Cabinet members, they sold their souls a long time ago or they got out of the Cabinet. Even the staff people. And this is personal to a degree, I’ll admit. Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press secretary, said this yesterday to a reporter asking a legitimate question which was something like: what’s the status of the health plan the President’s been promising and who’s working on it?

McEnany’s answer: “I’m not going to give you a readout of what our health care plan looks like and who’s working on it. If you want to know, come work here at the White House.”

I know it’s trite to say, but the taxpayers pay her salary. She is the spokesman for the White House, not Donald Trump the man, but Donald Trump the President.

I know, it’s a subtle line to walk. But I can speak from some experience because I’ve walked that line. Her answer was arrogant and total BS. She either has an audience of one she’s playing to or she’s auditioning for her own show on a friendly cable network.

That, though, is not the answer to the reporter’s question. There are many other ways to say it, if she is going to even come close to telling the truth. Her problem is the truth isn’t available to her because there is no big Administration health plan being drafted or already drafted, as the President has said. (And, if there were, it needs to be passed into law.) And if there is, that Miller guy is probably drafting it along with that new coronavirus advisor who is feeding Trump his lines.

Another way to answer the question, “We have some of the world’s leading experts in our Administration and departments. They are working on it under the leadership of (and here she can make one of two choices -– an appropriate Cabinet member or, less believable in any Administration, the President).” Bingo. Answered.

But, it’s more important as a Trump re-election strategy to point the finger at the media. Simple as that. No need to sweat the details. No need to have any specifics. Just say to a reporter as McEnany did yesterday, “If you want to know, come work here at the White House.” (A three year old’s “na-na-na-na” is optional.)

Or, when she said “come work here at the White House,” the reporter maybe should have said “OK, I’ll do that. Point me to the HR department.”

The electorate is plenty locked in on who it’s voting for at the moment. We are truly a blue/red country. The undecideds vary depending on the poll you read but it’s safe to say that fewer than 10 percent are undecided at this juncture and it’s more likely half of that. Those are the voters being fought over basically.

They skew, from the polls I’ve seen, more women than men, more people who think the country’s off track than on track. But, as the old song goes, “but that was yesterday and yesterday’s gone.” That poll is no longer operative now.

No one knows who’s going to win this election. Biden’s the betting favorite but, as we saw reinforced four years ago, it’s the Electoral College, stupid. And Trump is betting heavy on Republican states and pushing away Democratic states with his claiming the GOP did a better job than Democrats on the coronavirus. I’ll resist a snarky – “well, except for one Republican we all know who lives in the White House.” But I’ll resist.

If you watch the news, Secretaries of the State, the ultimate state official responsible for elections, whether Democrat or Republican, say their state isn’t rigged and you can tell they truly mean it.

Election officials tend to be more straightforward than other “political” people in my experience. They also usually have clearer laws and legal guidance to work from.

This election will not be rigged. I’m not sure how one would rig it, honestly.

The media and the politicians should be preparing the voters on why it isn’t rigged. The time for that education is now. We have always trusted our elections and now is no time to change that.

The President is laying out that “rigged” marker to either try to steal the election after Election Day (unlikely) or to set up an excuse as to why losing wasn’t his fault.

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We the People, deserve the truth. We're the ones dying.

9/10/2020

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It is well past time that the men and women who work for President Trump, as political appointees especially, speak publicly and with their names attached, about what has really been happening the last nearly four years.

They each took an oath. Here it is:

“I, (name), do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God.”

Nowhere does that oath say the appointee must be loyal to whoever the President may be. It says he or she is pledging to support and defend the U.S. Constitution "...against all enemies, foreign and DOMESTIC (emphasis mine).” It is a pledge to we, the people, not he, The Donald.

Nearly 200,000 of our fellow citizens – grandparents, parents, brothers, sisters, husbands, wives, black, white, brown, gay, straight – are dead because of the coronavirus. A good portion of those deaths could have been avoided if Donald J. Trump (who also swore an oath to the Constitution, but we know that his word means nothing) spoke the truth to America and the world.

He says he didn’t because he didn’t want to cause a “panic.” Fair enough, but an experienced leader like Mr. Trump claims to be knows there are ways to tell the truth without giving away the store. And without lying.

He clearly was more worried about sending the stock market into free fall. He keeps talking about 401k’s and IRAs tanking if it wasn’t for him.

Fact is, the market will do what the market will do.

The market is not the economy. It doesn’t matter what the President does really. The markets discount for bad news and plan for good news. Hell, look at the market yesterday and today – days it was confirmed the President of the United States withheld information that could have saved thousands of lives.

The market is up as of this writing.

But back to those people appointed to political jobs. Let me speak to them:

Are you proud of what you’re doing?

Do you go home at night and call your parents to tell them the amazing things you're doing? Or brag to you spouse or partner?

You may be proud of your work at Labor or Commerce or other agencies especially if it has nothing to do with Donald Trump. But everything you do accrues to Donald Trump’s legacy. Do you enjoy working for a man who withheld information – and lied about other information – that could have saved lives?

You all, if you have any conscience at all, should resign in mass and talk to the world about what you know about the corrupt operation of government under Donald Trump.

If you’re in your 20s or 30s you should know: You have to earn a living when this President is out of office. And your resume will show that you worked for the man who, among other things, stood by while thousands of the folks he was sworn to protect and defend died. And you chose to work for him. Honestly, I wouldn’t hire you. But I guess OAN or Fox or a right-wing billionaire might.

Now you can say it’s easy for me to say that since my career is behind me and I don’t need another job. Let me tell you something, I’m no saint, but I could not continue working for this man, and convince myself that I’m not doing anything wrong. I would be contributing to so many wrongs. And you know something, it was easy for me to say. It just takes a little character (and I do have a little character, I like to think).

Donald Trump is big on saying anyone who committed what he thinks is a criticism or affront to him commits “treason.” Fact is, there is no treason if we’re not at war…but let’s assume he’s right that acts against the people of America are treasonous even if we're not at war. He’s as guilty of it as anyone in history. And so are you if you continue working for him and keep your mouth shut.

History will record other horrible things we don't yet know about that he has done as President, I have no doubt. It will come out -- tomorrow next week, next year, in 10 years. But hard to imagine too many things more deadly than his decision to keep quiet about what he knew about the virus.

This man is smiling right now because he was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. If you read the criteria for who can nominate someone – here if you’re interested. (https://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/peace/) you will see that the nominators are a large group of people throughout the world. Truth is, almost anyone can be nominated if you grease the right palm. Not that I’m suggesting Donald Trump would do that. No man who stood by while his fellow citizens die from a virus that he knew was deadly but said the opposite would do that, right?

I don’t read a lot of “political” books figuring if tell me the author’s name and I can predict what he’ll write (as can most of you). But I am reading Michael Cohen’s book right now -- the former fixer for Donald Trump, the man convicted of lying and sent to jail for it. I get all the reasons you may not think him credible, that’s up to you.

But in reading his book so far two things stand out to me: One, his wife and children never wanted him to work for Donald Trump. He did anyway. They wanted him to quit, and he didn’t. And, he admits in this book what a failure of character that was. He went in knowing what he was buying into. He admits lots of things that would take most of us years of therapy to admit. He did it in his prison cell.

Two, he says those who won’t speak out against Trump, including himself once upon a time, are not loyalists. They are cultists. Not unlike those cultists that drank the “Kool Aid” when Jim Jones told them to, knowing they would die because he said it was time. And they died freely.

House and Senate Republicans, and other elected Republicans, are Trump cultists. They fear his tweet, or his base abandoning them or just the attention he would give them they don’t want.

They are cowards. We know that. And history will record them as such.

But, too, are his appointees cowards. The active service military folks I can understand because he is the commander in chief. Still they, too, have stood against some of his worst inclinations, like invoking the Insurrection Act so he could send our troops into “Democrat cities” clearly to help his re-election campaign.

The retired folks though I expect more from. Anytime I see a Gen. James Mattis, Trump’s former secretary of defense, say something that Trump would prefer him not to say, my respect for Mattis increases. The same would be true if Gen. John Kelly, Trump’s former chief of staff, spoke up – now. It would be an act of patriotism, no question in my mind. As long as it’s truth. And, whatever it is they have to say, it should be before the election.

We, the people, deserve the truth. It is our lives that are at stake.

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The Unreal Convention

8/28/2020

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Donald Trump accepted his party’s nomination for reelection last night and spoke for 70 minutes. I didn’t count, but I would bet he averaged a lie every minute or two.

I won’t list them all – actually I don't think there was a new lie in the bunch – but he rewrote his presidency to, at a minimum, give him credit for ending a pandemic that has killed 180,000 of his fellow citizens and still is killing more today.

The convention rewrote history by presenting Trump as empathetic, caring, a leader in the war for women to equal treatment in the workplace, the architect of the country’s greatest economy in history, a happy celebrant of swearing in immigrants, giving us the biggest tax cut of all time, fighting racism, a President who has “created millions of jobs” and more.

Each one of that list is a lie. He didn’t do any of them.

Yet that is the record he wants to run on. Honestly, if he had that record to run on, I’d probably vote for him.

He does not have that record. It was one more “reality” show that wasn’t real.

In fact, the only job he probably did create was “fact checker” which every major media outlet now has, thanks to him.

Did the convention work, giving him a bounce in the polls to begin to catch up to Joe Biden? If the polls are right that is. We'll see in a few days.

The speech was probably more informative for the issues he did not mention – racism, cops being too quick to shoot black men and too blind or trusting enough (I guess) to stop a white male teenager walking down the street brandishing the long rifle he’d just used to kill two people.

I must admit, I did not see his entire speech so maybe I missed those parts. And I won’t be reading a transcript because…why?

He spent lots of time (as did several of his STAFF people who spoke at the convention) talking about "Democrat cities" that are being managed badly thus they have protesters and looters roaming their street. He said if we elect Joe Biden, that will be everyday life, ignoring that this everyday life is occurring on his watch.

There is no doubt in my mind that the presidential race will tighten as we head to Nov. 3. Partly because Trump and his sycophants will continue trashing Biden with lies and partly because Biden is sure to make mistakes as he campaigns and talks more to reporters. That will allow Trump, 74, to brand Biden, 77, with being too old to govern.

The convention, overall, was produced well, considering they only had a few weeks to put it together. You have to wonder, though, if a central group of speechwriters wrote or edited the various remarks because the speakers, too, repeated many of Trump’s lies. I have to (want to) believe that not all those people are liars. But they lied from Monday through Thursday for Donald Trump.

The lying will get worse. It has to because without the lies, Trump would have to explain his inept response to the pandemic, his pushing away allies and cozying up to dictators and more his record of appointing people who don't know what they're doing to jobs they don't know how to do.

As for his hand in creating a good economy pre-pandemic, he was handed off a good economy from Barack Obama and he didn’t muck it up. He did cut regulations, many of them created to protect Americans and some that were a legitimate obstacle to business. We probably won’t know the full story of how regulations, eliminated or rewritten, really have affected our lives. But those cuts did contribute to a positive economy.

He keeps telling people they should love him because, well, just look at your 401k's and stocks! Except those people standing in long lines to get food don't have enough money to feed themselves -- clearly they don't have 401k's. But that kind of thinking fits right in with his daughter and White House advisor Ivanka's "Find Something New" philosophy, telling folks to find jobs that don't exist anymore under her dad.

We have the debates coming up and they truly will be interesting, especially to see the strategies each candidate uses. Will Trump continue to lie as he is fact-checked on the spot by Biden? Will Biden misspeak so Trump can point to how senile he is? Is Biden truly a closet socialist plotting with Bernie and AOC to change the country's very existence?

Expect to see from the Trump side any picture of Biden with his hands on a child so they can continue the lie that Biden is a child molester. Expect to see photos used by Trump that will catch Biden in a moment of confusion (probably from some legitimately confusing act) to demonstrate that he has lost it.

For those us who are not supporting Trump, it will be cringe worthy as is every appearance by the President and it will be edge of seat as we watch to see if Biden can handle him or not.

The most important takeaway from this is – VOTE!

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Ordinary people

8/25/2020

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When the Republicans said they would be featuring “average” people during their convention, last night was not what I pictured.

In one (videotaped?) segment, we saw the President standing in the middle of about six “average” folks. Why they were standing, I don’t know. Sitting would seem to be more intimate. And why the President didn’t ask them their names, I don’t know either.

In any event, I know everyone doesn’t dislike Trump, but these were front-line workers, nurses, postal workers. A doctor appeared and said that the President was fabulous because he provided the health caregivers with the equipment and protective equipment they need.

The President says he had to step in because the governors weren’t doing their jobs. (I think he must mean only the Democratic governors since he clearly believes there is a difference between “Democrat-led” and “Republican-led” states.)

But I seem to recall governors from both parties begging the federal government to step in to secure personal protective equipment and ventilators and I seem to recall the President at the time saying the federal government “is not a shipping clerk.” Or words to that effect. Actually those were the exact words he used.

You have to be a true-blue Trump person to believe these “average” folks. But there they were. Why shouldn’t they be believed? I don’t know, but something tells me there was something fishy going on. Why didn’t he ask them their names or where they were from? They certainly looked like the person next door. I know, I’m sounding like a conspiracy theorist … but ya gotta wonder.

I don’t wonder about the “average” couple that pointed guns at peaceful protestors in front of their home, though. The peaceful protestors were doing nothing but…protesting peacefully. They were on their way to the mayor’s house down the street and this man and his wife pointed guns at them, saying they had to protect their property.

No one was threatening their property. So it came as no surprise that they spoke at the Republican Convention to point out erroneously that the Democrats will take your guns and MS13 will be moving in next door if you elect Joe Biden.

I read that the rabbi of the synagogue that abuts the couple’s property called the couple “bullies.” Among their offenses, she said, they destroyed bee hives children of the synagogue had and the hives were on the couple’s property by six feet. They didn’t call the rabbi first, they just destroyed the hives.

No one at the convention mentioned anything about how the Administration struggled to get their hands around the coronavirus. But I didn’t expect that – this indeed was convention to nominate Donald J. Trump to a second term.

I get that Republican political figures are supportive of Trump. I mean, I don’t really get it but I do understand it. Going against him means likely losing your job. It would be heartening to know, I know, that some elected or appointed official would be willing to give up his or her job because the President is a clear and present danger, but I get why they swallow that and support him. I just don't agree or like it.

Like Nikki Haley who wants to run for President. Or Sen. Tim Scott of North Carolina, who has opposed the President on occasion. But there he was speaking in support at the convention.

I must admit, I did not watch the “prime time” hour of the convention. (Prime time at 10 o’clock is pretty much past bed time for me.) I was going to watch it but I was watching the first part of the convention which was broadcast on CSPAN. The last speaker of that segment was Kimberly Guilfoyle. I mean SHOUTER. She was SHOUTING as many people do when they speak at political conventions with thousands of the faithful cheering so much you almost have to yell. But she was speaking to an empty hall. The SHOUTING was…well, I don’t know how to describe it. Off-putting to say the least.

Then again I'm told her boyfriend, Donald J. Trump Jr., followed her and it made him sound reasonable.

I’m a political junkie, well not a junkie but I follow it pretty closely. I’ve been to several GOP conventions both as staff, as an "official observer" and as a consultant who led a client around the convention to introduce him to folks. (It was The Rock of WWE fame. WWE was a client of mine when I was a dreaded Washington consultant.)

I must admit, though, that I really couldn’t watch last night’s installment, never knowing when the President might pop in awkwardly “interviewing” the common man and woman. I seem to recall also, it was just last week, the President ragging on the Democrats who mostly had videotaped segments and they weren’t live. A lot of taped presentations last night though.

I think, too, that, so far, the pandemic version of conventions was far better produced by the Democrats last week. Just sayin’. That isn’t a partisan statement, it’s a professional opinion on the product of each convention.

I will try to watch again tonight. I am curious about how Trump makes his nightly appearances, breaking a long tradition of both parties of how the nominee stays out of the limelight until he’s nominated (which he was yesterday) and when he or she speaks to end the convention.

Melania Trump, the first lady, speaks tonight and I read that convention planners and Trump’s campaign are hoping she will come across well to female suburban voters, where the President faces a deficit. I guess because she’s a woman they think that. I’m not a suburban woman but I fail to see how a former model, married to an (alleged) multi-billionaire and carrying and wearing very expensive designer products is relatable to that woman.

Then again, what is a suburban female? It used to mean white women of a certain level of success. But the suburbs (or how pollsters define suburbs) have changed. The 2010 census found that roughly equal shares of suburban and city dwellers in the U.S.'s 50 biggest metro areas had college degrees or higher. Also, today, 35 percent of suburb dwellers are minorities.

There is a pandemic, and while, as the President likes to point out, Wall Street is booming, at the moment, and he’s “created” millions of jobs in the last couple of months (rather than admitting that these are jobs that reappeared after state economies slowly opened up. That is not what “creating a job” means.) Wall Street is not an economic indicator. Ask any economist. It rises when it should fall and falls when it should rise. There is little rhyme or reason.

But then, conventions, for all political parties, are fantasy land.

Wait a minute, isn’t this presidency a fantasy land based on a reality show?

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Who's rigging what?

8/16/2020

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President Donald J. Trump swore an oath which says in part that he swears he: “…will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

Donald Trump, who has lied more than 20,000 times as President according to fact checkers, must read that phrase “to the best of my ability” to give him leeway as to how he preserves, protects, defends the Constitution. After all, he truly may be doing the job to the best of his (limited) abilities.

His latest lie/tactic is to say he won’t agree to a boost in funding for the Postal Service and then says that without that money the post office won’t be able to deliver absentee and mail-in ballots for the Nov. 3 elections until, possibly, months later.

Because, he claims without facts to back him up, that the country’s secretaries of the state, for the most part have inadequate procedures in place to handle the extra millions of mail-in ballots that will occur this year because of the coronavirus. Trump has said, though that Florida can handle it well. The President now votes in Florida where he has a sycophant Republican governor.

And with that, he will claim, if he loses in November or whenever, that the election was rigged against him. We know this because he said it last week. Out loud. In front of a camera taping him. Polls show more Democrats are likely to mail-in their votes than Republicans. You do the math.

Let’s pass over for the moment his failures in office. Let’s just focus on the postal service:

This man who swore an oath and claims to be the “best president ever,” clearly is afraid to stand for reelection so the voters can give him a passing or failing grade.

This coward who, I’ll say again, repeatedly tells us he is the bestest of the best presidents, is afraid to stand for a fair election so the voters can reinforce his love for himself. Or not.

This buffoon who has given our allies the finger and our enemies a free pass even when they kill Americans or put bounties on our military's heads is afraid to let the people prove him right. Or wrong.

This narcissistic grifter who says he has done the best job in the world battling the coronavirus, who boasts about the best testing anywhere, who says it’s the “China Virus” as if China came here and infected 6 million (so far) Americans and killed 160,000 (so far) now wants you to walk into a voting facility, stand in line with others, some of whom refuse to wear a mask because they think, as the President has told them, that the virus is a “Democratic hoax” and expose yourself and others to a possible death sentence in order to cast your Constitutionally guaranteed vote.

He is a walking, double-talking, lying conman who thinks only of himself (he’ll be voting absentee by the way).

Meantime, not only will ballots possibly be delayed or not counted depending on how states plan to handle the dilemma, the slowed down Post Office, through no fault of your mail carrier, also will be forcing a slow down in delivery of prescriptions to millions of Americans, primarily veterans and the elderly. Constituencies he thinks he can win.

Are he and his postmaster general intentionally taking actions that will make delivering the mail on time impossible? He says no, that Louis DeJoy, is a “smart man” but he (Trump), of course, has no idea what he’s doing over there at the Postal Service. Add that to his more than 20,000 documented lies since he’s been President. Remember when Trump told you he didn’t know if his personal attorney paid off a stripper who Trump “allegedly” had an affair with?

He’s not looking out for you or me or our vote or our Constitutional rights.

To my friends who support President Trump because he appoints conservative judges, claims to be a right to lifer, tells police they needn't "be gentle” with accused in their custody, who supports cops who push an elderly veteran to the sidewalk because he’s protesting the murder by police of a man in custody of the police, who cages kids because their parents tried to give them a better, safer life, who names appointees who have no experience for their jobs. To those friends I say: it is your right to support him.

But he or you have no right to take anyone else's vote away from them. None.

Now the White House is possibly sending signals that this whole episode may be a negotiating tactic by the President to get Democrats back to the negotiating table and so that he can agree to post office money so that he can get things he wants into the coronavirus assistance bill – like a tax cut "for the workers," a delay in collecting the payroll tax and other things that make no sense in the current economy. People need cash. In hand.

They don’t have accountants and lawyers like the President who have the luxury of time to find loopholes or cheat on their taxes. They need cash. Now. Their rent is past due. They can't buy food to feed their families.

But who knows what this President is doing or what’s on his mind. I heard his chief of staff on CNN say the President will sign a standalone Postal Service bill. He claims the Democrats won’t do a standalone bill.

What happened to the greatest negotiator in the history of mankind? Yeah, you know, the one who hasn’t attended a negotiating session yet. Why can't that guy get this logjam in the Congress resolved? I thought only he could fix it.

Don’t count on anything anyone in this Administration says is true. None of them.

There is a workaround, though, to get your ballot counted that is making its way around the Internet. Here it is:

Request a mail-in ballot.
Do not mail it.
Google your supervisor of elections to see where you can drop off your mail-in ballot. It’s usually not the polling place. And it’s not a mail box. It’s a box only for election ballots. All states allow this!

Here is what you're accomplishing by doing this:

You're not relying on the postal service to get your ballot in on time, so no matter what, your ballot gets in on time.
You don't have to worry about standing in long lines and risking infection. You're just stopping by to drop it off. Often, you can drive up to the box and never leave your car to deposit your ballot.

Also, when you drop it off find out how if you can track it online to make sure it is verified. California, Oregon, Washington Colorado have systems that can track your ballot just like tracking a package from Amazon.

As Trump likes to say, "believe me," that's how I'm delivering my ballot this year. But I mean the "believe me" part. He doesn't.

The President is claiming the election is “rigged.” And he ought to know. He’s the one trying to rig it.

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The comparison is stark. That's the point.

8/12/2020

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Trump/Pence vs. Biden/Harris.

What do you think? I imagine most folks who are not planning to vote for President Trump are quite happy with the former vice president’s choice of a running mate.

California Sen. Kamala Harris is smart. Tested. Tough. Can be fun, soft and genuine in an interview, showing her true personality.

Biden proved, if he had to, that he can overlook a tough shot taken at him in a debate by his selection and still do the right thing and “bring folks together.” It’s a great comparison with Trump who famously holds grudges, seemingly forever or until his grudge target gets on his knees and pledges fealty.

And, most importantly, Sen. Kamala Harris is experienced enough to take over the Oval Office in an emergency.

So, Biden accomplished the primary goal in choosing a running mate: Do no harm.
In fact, she does some good for him.

Harris has all the qualities a presidential candidate seeks in a vice president. And, so far, she’s getting fantastic press and reactions to Biden’s choice. Her selection likely will dominate the news through the Sunday shows.

Unless Trump has something up his sleeve to distract from her. Toying with the idea of talking to Putin about his (untested) coronavirus vaccine and possibly bringing it here?
That would dominate the media for sure.

Meantime, let’s get on with the show.

Because, folks, Sen. Harris did no harm and did Biden some good but the fact is this election is Biden v. Trump. We can all anticipate with glee the vice presidential debate but, the fact is, unless Pence or Harris mess up royally, that debate matters not much.

Sen. Harris was, among the options Biden laid out for himself, the best and safest choice. In the old days, a vice presidential selection was as much about helping to win a state in the Electoral College. But there is at least one generation of voters who have never seen a veep candidate chosen, successfully anyway, to deliver a particular state.

There’s little doubt Biden can carry Harris' home state of California with or without her. And remember, I said safest among the candidates he interviewed. The first African American/Indian woman on a national ticket is no easy choice. Biden clearly though was going to select a woman and likely a woman of color.

This choice, though, was as much about turnout. Sen. Harris will likely draw more voters to the Democratic ticket especially among women (especially the all-important suburban women) and among African-American and Indian-American voters. This is good for Biden because there has been question about what his pull will be especially with young, progressive voters and young African-American voters.

And Biden, by virtue of his being the oldest person ever elected president if he wins, and because of important issues happening right now (race relations, police brutality, and more) is reshaping the party, especially if he wins. Others on his potential veep list for the most part will be exceptional choices for his staff and government if he wins. Imagine Susan Rice or Sen. Warren as chief of staff. Or Rice as secretary of state and Warren in the financial area somewhere (Treasury?). Imagine Mayor Pete being named to the Cabinet (Health and Human Services? Housing?).

You can see how a Biden Cabinet would look much more like America than the current Cabinet, or any before it, in fact.

President Trump and his political advisors, while not surprised by the Harris choice, do have some thinking to do beyond their first, amateurish ad after the Harris choice. Nicknames like Slow Joe and Phony Kamala won’t win any more votes than he already has with his “base.”

I imagine the Biden campaign will use Trump’s nicknaming his enemies for ridicule as one more way they will contrast Biden with the childish Trump tactic. So, Sleepy Joe and Phony Kamala away, Mr. President, this time It will backfire.

Will Trump dump Pence to find a running mate that tries to match Harris (Nikki Haley?). Trump certainly is craven enough but Mike Pence has been so loyal to him – a lap dog as was labeled a former Republican vice president – I don’t see how he gets away with it except, of course, with his “base” although I can imagine the evangelical bloc not being happy about changing out the devout Pence. And some of those voters already have been peeling off Trump. Can he afford to lose any more?

This will be, if it isn’t already, the dirtiest campaign we’ve ever seen.

Already Trump has tweeted that the “’suburban housewife’ will be voting for me. They want safety & are thrilled that I ended the long running program where low income housing would invade their neighborhood. Biden would reinstall it, in a bigger form, with Corey Booker in charge!”

You might wonder why Trump chose Sen. Cory (correct spelling) Booker to symbolize this program and reinforce his not really subliminal message that “low income housing” is a not-so code for “brown people.” Booker not only is African-American, he has lived in low-income housing.

Trump is making no secret of his plan to make race an issue in this campaign as he did his first.

Biden’s campaign is clearly setting up the comparison with Trump both on his crass tactics and his fumbling, failing leadership.

And Biden/Harris may be the perfect ticket to take that on.

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Where the election (might) stand

8/5/2020

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If you try to analyze the Electoral College numbers to see where the presidential race stands, well, you could go blind. I tried. Here’s what I learned.

I reviewed a state-by-state poll review by The New York Times this week. The Times used at least two state polls from each state. Some were more than a week or two old. But, if you take those polls as they existed and averaged them, Vice President Joe Biden wins the Electoral College with 373 votes. That, though, includes states where the compilations show him with large leads (for example New York where he registers 57 percent of the vote) to states where he has tiny leads (for example North Carolina where he leads by a single point).

If you subtract out the close states (Texas, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Nevada), Biden’s electoral count drops but still wins at 279 votes (270 are needed).

If you just subtract the three close states President Trump won four years ago, those states credited him with winning the election for him (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) and assume Trump wins then again, Biden still wins with 333 electoral votes.

As you can see, you can go blind. And, in any event, those polls were good for when they were taken. Which means they matter not.

We read and hear lots of analysis from the pundits and alleged experts, most of them claiming Biden is way ahead.

Allan Lichtman, a professor who is perfect in his predictions of the presidential election for 40 years (yes, including Trump’s win in 2016 and predicting his eventual impeachment), also is predicting Biden wins based on Lichtman’s 13 keys to a presidential election.

The bottom line is, who knows? Well, except maybe for Lichtman based on his track record.

Trump seems to be running with basically the same strategy he used four years ago: divide and conquer. Many people look at the Trump strategy and try to figure out how he can win since he’s done nothing to expand his base and most everything to decrease the voters who were attracted to him four years ago, at least those who aren’t really his true-blue base but voted for hm.

Every day we watch Trump do things like embrace the Confederate flag; offer good wishes to a friend accused of serving up underage girls to Jeffrey Epstein while refusing to say positive things about the racial justice icon, recently deceased John Lewis; clear Lafayette Park of protestors so he could pose with an upside down Bible in front of the “church of presidents;” continuously praise his administration's work on the coronavirus as the best in the world, etc. etc. Why? I assume because he knows his best path to victory in November is to repeat his successes of 2016, which means getting his base out to vote.

Don’t say it can’t work, because it did four years ago.

Personally, based on his behavior in office and his mishandling of the coronavirus, I think he’s pushed away enough of those “swing voters” he attracted four years ago to make a difference. Older voters aren’t happy largely because they are the most directly affected by the virus. Trump’s definition of who make up populations in the suburbs feels outdated so his solicitation for votes there seems misdirected.

But, remember, there is another candidate who so far has done basically nothing to achieve his front-runner status. Joe Biden is a good guy – that’s his image and it’s his image because he is a nice guy, he earned that reputation. Most everyone who’s ever met or dealt with him will tell you that. If anyone is the anti-Trump, it is Joe Biden.

But is it enough to be the guy running against Trump to actually win? Probably not so Joe will need to continue unveiling policies, announcing what he would do in addition to talking about what he would un-do if he defeats Trump.

While the election is “only” 90 days away, it is 90 days away. There’s plenty of time for turns and twists both from Trump (guaranteed) and Biden (pretty much guaranteed too based on his patterns over his career).

Next big public decision for Biden is to pick his running mate – who he assured the country will be a woman.

There are pluses and minuses for each of the women rumored to be on his final list. I subscribe to the theory that he needs to choose the woman who, if necessary (and because of Biden’s age it is a big consideration), can truly take over if she has to because of incapacitation to Biden. Who is the woman who can be empathetic, lead the country out of the disappointment of a President they elected who can’t finish his term and be the calm, decisive President needed in such times (Gerald Ford anyone?).

Those are my two cents which tomorrow will be worth less than two cents.

Much as those polls I cited above.

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Election night and beyond. The unknown.

It isn't rigged

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The Unreal Convention

Ordinary people

Who's rigging what?

The comparison is stark. That's the point.

Where the election (might) stand

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